MatchQuarters' NFL Season Previews: Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Detroit Lions
Tampa has some new faces and needs several critical pieces to step up and start producing. In Detroit, all eyes are on Aaron Glenn and the defense. Get it right, and a Super Bowl is within reach.
Each week leading up to the season, I will review the roster, schemes, and outlook for each defense in the NFL. I have a depth chart for every team with their 2023 Field Vision Sports HAVOC rankings and scores. Projected rookie starters will receive the league average HAVOC for that position. Notable losses are located in the upper left-hand corner. Click on the picture to expand for a better look.
What is HAVOC? I wanted to create a metric that better understood how defenders play within their scheme. For the D-line and LBs, it is pretty straightforward. Can you fit the run and create a pass rush? For LBs and some Edges, coverages have also been added.
Related Content: Field Vision Sports - Introducing Havoc Ratings
In the secondary, it can get complicated. Not every team runs the same amount of coverage. Some, like Dan Quinn, Jim Schwartz, and Gus Bradley, live in a singular style of play, while others, namely Mike Macdonald and Vic Fangio, choose to play a multitude of coverages. I wanted to create a more nuanced way to look at DB play. How are they playing within man and zone schemes, and how diverse is their coverage palate?
Utilizing HAVOC, which is biased towards player and scheme usage, we can better understand how these players are used within the ecosystem they play in. A great example is Seattle’s Riq Woolen, one of the best man coverage CBs in the game but struggles at zone. Team-wise, the Browns have three CBs that excel at man coverage, which suits what DC Schwartz is trying to do.
HAVOC allows us to track free agency signings and paint a better picture of their fit. Should the Commanders, who will play mainly man and 3-match coverages, bring in a zone-centric CB? No, that wouldn’t be wise. Using HAVOC allows us to see how teams are building their rosters defensively. So remember, these numbers show how productive the player was in the scheme they played in last year, which is reflected against their peers in their overall ranking.
Related Content: The Power of Evaluating Players using Play-by-Play Data
The ratings in this article are my ‘raw’ Havoc scores. In the coming weeks, we will roll out our comprehensive lists of top defenders at Field Vision. Make sure to subscribe to our mailing list to get instant access when we release new content and information.
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The Lions shocked everyone the first week of last season when they came out and beat the Chiefs at home. From that point forward, Detroit had put everyone on notice. Fast-forward to the end of the season, and the Lions were NFC North divisional champs and headed to the playoffs, even winning a playoff game. All things that had not happened since the early ‘90s.
Most pundits focus on the offense, but Detroit's defense has quietly had a resurgence. The previous year (‘22) was a disaster in the secondary, but embattled defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn made a few tweaks in playcalling to alleviate issues there. Adding Quarters to a Cover 1 dominant scheme was a boon for the Lions all year, and it gave Detriot more answers and a layered approach.
The scheme is Nickel-based (68%/4-2-5) and mainly closed-post in the secondary. When in Base (27%), Detroit is multiple, able to align in a 3-4 or 4-3 depending on the game plan, but typically their alignment looked like a traditional 3-4. Derrick Barnes (LB19) or DE John Cominsky (DL37) came in to create the Lions Base. Barnes could moonlight as an Edge. Besides production in the back end, the most significant difference from ‘22 to ‘23 was the emergence of a Quarters scheme.
The ‘22 season saw the Lions sit atop the Cover 1 usage leaderboard at 30% of its calls. Detroit complemented that with Cover 3 at a similar rate. The secondary couldn’t handle the heat.
In ‘23, Glenn came out against the Chiefs running Quarters on over 30% of their calls. Not every team got that treatment, though. The Vikings, for instance, only saw a few snaps of the coverage. Still, Glenn's ability to at least usher in change gave the Lions a much-needed boost on defense.
Overall, the unit was still average in stopping the pass, so this offseason, the Lions went out and got Buccanners’ CB Carlton Davis III (CB36) and drafted CB Terrion Arnold of Alabama. Both CBs excel in man coverage and have the coverage diversity to play Quarters. Glenn still wants to play man coverage but needs the CBs to do it.
Last year, Detroit had the highest DVOA against the rush, yet still went out and got DJ Reader (DL34). The Lions are also banking on former Vikings first-round pick Marcus Davenport to have a bounce-back year after an injury cut his ‘23 season short. Glenn wants to live in ‘sub’ packages that feature man and man-match coverages, and several big splash off-season moves illustrate that philosophy. There are no more excuses for Glenn.
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» D-Line:
Say what you want about Aidan Hutchinson (ED2), but the kid can rush the passer. He still needs to develop against the run to make him more of a complete player. Most of his production has come without much help from the opposite Edge. The hope is that Davenport or James Houston (or a combination of both) can give Hutchinson support.
Inside, the team signed DJ Reader, arguably one of the best Noses in the league. Alim McNeal (DL32) was productive last year at the 3 technique. DE Cominsky is a workhorse and will come in when the Lions want to run a 3-4 or Penny (5-1) package as the 3 tech. opposite McNeal. He can also play the ‘big’ 5 tech. in certain four-down packages.
The run-stopping ability of the Lions should continue with this group. More importantly, the Edge opposite of Hutchinson has to start showing up. Most teams will want to double Reader, allowing the other D-linemen to work their one-on-ones.
The Lions finished fifth in pressure rate but were 24th in average time to pressure. Reader should give the Edges better looks, and Detriot desperately needs Davenport or Houston to start playing ball opposite Hutchinson. It’s not enough to stop the run in the modern NFL.
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» Linebackers:
Alex Anzalone (LB12) has quietly become one of the better LBs in the NFL. The Lions use him in various ways, and he is the solo backer in the team’s Penny package (5-1). As a Will, or $-backer, he is mainly tasked with blitzing or defending the RB. His ability to stop the run is a bonus.
Jack Campbell (LB68) was drafted to be a traditional Mike or box LB; for the most part, he didn’t disappoint. Campbell can hold down the box while Anzalone is used as a chess piece to create pressure of mismatches. The coverage aspect of Campbell will need to take another step this year to bring Detroit’s defense into the top 10.
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» Secondary:
Last year young Safety duo of Kerby Joseph (S50) and Ifeatu Melifonwu (S16). Melifonwu, in particular, had a knack for making plays as a pass rusher and the added value of being able to defend TEs when needed. Joseph has the potential to continue to grow in this system. Both need to become more competent in man coverage, but in true Lions fashion, they are both solid against the run.
The CB room will look completely different from the ‘23 version. Both starters, Jerry Jacobs (CB 72) and Cameron Sutton (CB59) are gone. The Lions traded for Buccaneers’ CB Carlton Davis to replace them and drafted Terrion Arnold. Both CBs are man-coverage defenders and can play Quarters and Cover 3. Look at the CB spot if you want to see where Glenn and the Lions’ brass heads are.
Finally, the Lions have arguably the best Slot defender in all of football. Brian Branch instantly upgraded the defense and gave Detroit an every-down defender in one of the most critical positions in modern football. The rookie finished near the top of the DB charts in tackles for loss (TFLs) and second in picks by a rookie.
Give it to Detroit for understanding that they need to solidify the secondary to win a championship. If Arnold can produce and Joseph continues to grow alongside Melifonwu, the secondary has the potential to take a significant leap.
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» Lions Resources:
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The Buccaneers under Todd Bowles seem to be treading water. Several pieces on defense are standouts, but they are potholed with players that seem not to be able to get over the hump. Tampa runs a 3-4 multiple defense that traditionally has run a lot of Cover 1.
Over the past few seasons, Bowles has maintained his pressure-heavy scheme but has shifted his coverage palette to be more diverse, mainly playing zones. Up front, the team can easily transition from their base 3-4 into Nickel (4-2-5) with ease because of their two inside LBs and tough interior D-line.
That might not be the case this year, as longtime LB Devin White (LB34) will depart for greener pastures in Philly. The duo of White and Lavonate David (LB6) has always been one of the best in the NFL. The transition away from White shows how the NFL economy has shifted away from LBs as a priority in free agency.
One of the most significant additions to this year’s team will be Jets Safety Jordan Whitehead (S26), whom the Bucs let walk several seasons ago. Once he hit the market this offseason, Tampa brought him back to work. Antoine Winfield Jr. (S2), who was an All-Pro last year, has quickly become one of the best Safety in the league. Pairing him with Whitehead gives the Bucs a dynamic backend.
Bowles has shown a knack for evolving his scheme to fit the needs of those on the roster. Last year, Tampa was second in the NFL in blitz rate, right behind the Vikings. The transition to zone is on par with others around the league. Bowles is banking on some personnel changes to bolster the defense and get it back into the top 10.
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» D-Line:
Inside is where the Buccaneers have the potential to be truly special. Nose Vita Vea (DL14) is a freak and, when healthy, is a one-of-one player. Last year’s 1st-round draft pick, Calijah Kancey (DL27), showed flashes of greatness. The combination of Vea and Klancey gives the Bucs flexibility to hop from 3-4 to Ni without losing much production. DE Logan Hall (DL90) needs to begin showing up in production, though, or he could potentially see his way out the door.
At Edge, rookie Chris Braswell will be inserted into the fray to provide juice. Tampa lost Shaq Barrett (ED33) but hopes the addition of the Bama star can push players like Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (ED63) to begin playing up to their draft slot. Tryon-Shoyinka has shown sparks, but the Buccaneers opted not to take his 5th Year Option. He will be playing for his contract this fall.
Yaya Diaby (ED91) is in the same situation as JTS. The pressure is on for the young Edges. Tampa signed Randy Gregory (ED84) to provide depth, but he is currently AWOL from camp. If there is one group in the Tampa defense that has major question marks, it is the Edge group. Braswell has a clean slate and ample opportunity to earn a starting job before the season begins.
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» Linebackers:
Gone is White, but David is still there to hold down the second level of the defense. A complete LB, David will create pressure if the Edges aren’t up for the job. The Bucs blitzed so much last year because of the lack of pressure from outside.
Opposite David will be KJ Britt (LB42), who shadowed White last year. The Tampa front office felt that he played well enough that the team could move on from White. Britt is good in the box and should allow Bowles to use David as a chess piece, moving him around to create mismatches or pressure.
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» Secondary:
To start the 2024 season, the Buccaneers might have the best Safety duo in football. The combination of Winfield and Whitehead is back, and both excel in zone schemes. The duo's pressure will be on to help keep a cap on the secondary, as the CBs are more of a question mark.
Winfield was an elite do-everything workhorse as a pass rusher and one of the best run-stopping safeties in ‘23. He also dominated Cover 1 and Cover 3, which are the preferred coverages of Bowles.
Whitehead will bring another dimension back into the secondary. A hybrid safety, Whitehead can be used as a tool opposite Winfield, who has an extensive background as a Nickel defender. Together, the two can act as counterweights in Bowles’ scheme.
After Carlton Davis's departure to the Lions, the CB duo will be Jamel Dean (CB25) and Zyon McCollum (CB56). Behind those two, there is no form of production. Whereas the Edge group has question marks centered around the lack of production, the CB questions center on a lack of depth.
Dean and McCullum are serviceable CBs, but there is no depth if one is injured. The only depth provided this offseason was the drafting of Tyreke Smith as a Ni/Safety hybrid, not a CB. Christian Izien (Ni24) is better suited as the slot, especially with Winfield earning the right to play Safety full time.
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» Buccaneers Resources:
*And plenty more in the Archives.
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» Current Previews:
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