MatchQuarters' NFL Season Previews: Broncos and Packers

The Broncos defense transformed midseason into a top-10 unit with only one real star. The Packers unit never could get off the ground, but can Jeff Hafley's aggressive defense right the ship?

Jun 19, 2024

Each week leading up to the season, I will review the roster, schemes, and outlook for each defense in the NFL. I have a depth chart for every team with their 2023 Field Vision Sports HAVOC rankings and scores. Projected rookie starters will receive the league average HAVOC for that position. Notable losses are located in the upper left-hand corner. Click on the picture to expand for a better look.

What is HAVOC? I wanted to create a metric that better understood how defenders play within their scheme. For the D-line and LBs, it is pretty straightforward. Can you fit the run and create a pass rush? For LBs and some Edges, coverages have also been added.

In the secondary, it can get complicated. Not every team runs the same amount of coverage. Some, like Dan Quinn, Jim Schwartz, and Gus Bradley, live in a singular style of play, while others, namely Mike Macdonald and Vic Fangio, choose to play a multitude of coverages. I wanted to create a more nuanced way to look at DB play. How are they playing within man and zone schemes, and how diverse is their coverage palate?

Utilizing HAVOC, which is biased towards player and scheme usage, we can better understand how these players are used within the ecosystem they play in. A great example is Seattle’s Riq Woolen, one of the best man coverage CBs in the game but struggles at zone. Team-wise, the Browns have three CBs that excel at man coverage, which suits what DC Schwartz is trying to do.

HAVOC allows us to track free agency signings and paint a better picture of their fit. Should the Commanders, who will play mainly man and 3-match coverages, bring in a zone-centric CB? No, that wouldn’t be wise. Using HAVOC allows us to see how teams are building their rosters defensively. So remember, these numbers show how productive the player was in the scheme they played in last year, which is reflected against their peers in their overall ranking.

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Whatever you do, don’t watch the first eight weeks of the Broncos’ 2023 defensive campaign. Especially the Dolphins game. After their Week 3 drubbing by Miami, the wheels of change were started.

A lot of pundits and fans were calling for the head of Defensive Coordinator Vance Joesph, and rightfully so. Allowing 70 points in the NFL is inexcusable. Still, Head Coach Sean Payton stood by Joesph.

The transition from a Vic Fangio-adjacent system to the scheme Joesph runs was going to take some time. Former Head Coach Nathaniel Hackett hired Ejiro Evero (Panthers DC), who had worked for the Rams under Raheem Morris (Falcons HC) and ran a system within the Fangio universe.

In fact, Denver has run a Fangio defensive system since the man himself took over the team in ‘19. For many of the players on the Broncos ‘23 roster, the only defense they had ever known was Fangio.

The main difference in scheme lies within the secondary, which is where the Broncos struggled early on. After losing to the Dolphins, Joseph and his staff made changes to their personnel and traded EDGE Randy Gregory to the 49ers. Specifically, two cornerbacks were replaced.

Damarri Mathis was replaced by Fabian Moreau, and UDFA Ja’Quan McMillian took over for Ni Essang Bassey. Finally, long-time veteran Kareem Jackson was replaced by PJ Locke.

These moves allowed Joesph to lean back into his scheme and run what was comfortable for him. After Week 8, the defense began to excel. Looking at the back half of the schedule the Broncos become a top-10 defense. The hope was that the reshuffling and a few off-season additions could continue the success into 2024.

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» D-Line:

Jonathan Cooper (ED42) burst onto the scene last year, recording 10 sacks. The young Edge will need to continue to build on his strong year. He still lacks a punch, though, with a Pressure Rate under 14%. He also only recorded five total TFLs in ‘23.

Denver hopes the duo of Cooper and Baron Browning (ED67) can develop into a solid starting pair. Browning has shown flashes, but needs to start playing at a higher level consistently. Early in his career, the Broncos flirted with him playing as an off-ball LB, but now that he is securely at Edge, the production needs to be there for him to earn a second contract in Denver.

Backup Nik Bonitto (ED78) has shown moments but, along with Cooper and Browning, needs to bring more consistency to the group. 3rd Round draft pick Jonah Elliss might be a dark horse to start toward the end of the year. His brother Kaden is a starting LB for the Falcons. Denver has a young corp at Edge that has potential, but for players like Cooper and Browning, who are now in their fourth season, the production needs to show up.

Inside, ‘23 free agent pickup Zach Allen (iDL12) was a major contributor. Allen played in Joseph’s Arizona scheme, and the familiarity showed up in production. Nose DJ Jones (iDL113) is a plugger and has been productive the past few seasons. In the off-season, the Broncos traded for the Jets’ John Franklin-Myers (iDL49) for a ‘26 6th Round pick. Franklin-Myer will bring a solid pass rush from inside and should complement Allen in the Broncos 3-4 scheme.

If you look at the back half of the season, the Broncos were eighth in EPA vs. the run (rbsdm.com). If the unit continues to grow and develop a pass rush, the Broncos have the makings of a solid unit. No ‘stars’ are on the line, but both Edges are in contract years and will want to show out.

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» Linebackers:

Gone is stalwart Josey Jewell (LB43), and in is former Seahawk and Commanders LB Cody Barton (LB 46). Jewell left to play for Evero in Carolina, and the Broncos replaced him with what looks to be his doppelganger in production. Barton is solid against the run and one of the better coverage LBs in the NFL.

Barton’s strengths mesh well with holdover starter Alex Singleton (LB53). Singleton ranked sixth in Pass Rush HAVOC for LBs last year. Though Joesph isn’t looking for a ton of production from the LBs in regards to pass rush, you can see how both of these LBs will be used. Barton is a true off-ball LB, whereas Singleton can play the hybrid coverage/rush LB role.

Drew Sanders (LB142), the wildcard in this group, didn’t play much behind Jewell and Singleton. Sanders started as an Edge for Alabama before moving to an off-ball LB at Arkansas. Similar to Browning, he has the ability to play on and off-ball. Browning has progressed as an Edge, but the Broncos are sticking with Sanders as an ILB. He needs to show improvement, or again, his playing time will be limited.

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» Secondary:

The bedrock cornerstone of the secondary is Pat Surtain II (CB23), who is considered one of the best all-around CBs in the league. A lot of his struggles in ‘23 came from a lack of pass rush and the use of soft zone coverage. Surtain excels at man coverage (I have him ranked fifth in HAVOC) and is not afraid to fit the run or rush the passer.

30-year-old CB Fabien Moreau (CB47) is a current free agent and was replaced by the Steelers’ Levi Wallace (CB75). Moreau was a pure man CB whereas Wallace is more of a zone CB. Though Moreau excelled in closed-post coverage, the Broncos were looking for the ability to play well in a multitude of coverages. Wallace fits that mold.

Ja’Quan McMillian (NI18) will return to hold down the Nickel position. Denver, again, plans to use Surtian as a lockdown CB who can follow an opponent’s star WR. Wallace gives them a decent piece to play the field CB position.

Behind Wallace and Surtain are Damarri Mathis (CB166) and Riley Moss. Mathis’ play fell off a cliff last year. Typically, he is a decent on-ball CB, but last year, he struggled early and often, eventually finding himself on the sideline.

Moss played sparingly last year and suffered an injury early on in camp. This year, many see him having an increased role at CB. With Mathis’ struggles, there is an opening for Moss to become the third CB and press for playing time with Wallace.

The Safety position will miss Justin Simmons (S6), who has been a Bronco since ‘16 and is still a current free agent. Denver brought in Dolphin Safety Brandon Jones (S80) this offseason to play alongside PJ Locke (S83). Neither one is a top 10 (or even 50) Safety, but they both hold coverage diversity. Locke will most likely play near the box, with Jones as the Post Safety in the Broncos closed-post schemes.

Behind Jones and Locker are Delarrin Turner-Yell (S147) and oft-injured Caden Sterns. The latter has the potential to be a starter but has never completed a season. The hope is that Sterns can push Locke for the starting position and become the next Kareem Jackson.

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» Broncos Resources:

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Former DC Joe Barry patrolled the sidelines at Lambeau Field for three years, and for all three of them, fans and pundits called for his dismissal. Finally, after a lackluster ‘23 campaign, Barry is gone. In steps Boston College’s Head Coach Jeff Hafley, who last coached in the NFL in ‘18 as Kyle Shanahan’s DB coach.

Like Robert Salah (Jets HC) and Demeco Ryans (Texans HC), Hafley runs a four-down single-high defense that features Quarters. At BC, Hafley leaned heavily into Cover 1. Seeing how he translates his scheme to the NFL will be interesting. I assume there will be more zone coverages and a higher use of Quarters on longer yardage downs.

The off-season plan executed by the Packers gave a clear view of where they wanted to go defensively. The Packers drafted four defensive backs and two LBs, all with different skill sets that fit the needs of Hafley’s new scheme. Both Green Bay's 2nd-Round picks, Texas A&M LB Edgerrin Cooper and Georgia Safety Javon Bullard, will be immediately inserted into the projected starting lineup.

The defensive unit in Green Bay is solid, with excellent talent at every level. The issue for the past several years has been inconsistent production. The unit itself should be a top-ten defense in the NFL, but that never came to fruition.

Hafley is tasked with solidifying the defense to counterbalance a young, talented offense. If the two units can hit at the same time, the Packers have all the makings to get back to where they belong as a championship organization.

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» D-Line:

Edges Rashon Gary (ED19) and Preston Smith (ED32) have been with the Packers since ‘19. Combined, the duo makes for one of the more talented pairs on paper. Hafley’s four-down system will likely feature wide-9s, accentuating Smith and Preston’s ability to rush the passer and rarely ask them to drop into coverage. Green Bay needs both Edges to be more consistent, which is the overall mantra for the unit.

Inside, Kenny Clarck (iDL13) is an excellent pass rushing Nose. He will be paired with Devonte Wyatt (iDL41), another good pass-rushing interior D-lineman. The unit needs to improve against the run, where it was ranked in the bottom third in DVOA last year. The hope is that simplifying what the front four is asked to do will allow them to concentrate their efforts on getting to the QB and increasing their overall pressure rate.

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» Linebackers:

Quay Walker has the potential to be a dynamic off-ball LB. Walker is solid but doesn’t excel at any one thing. He’s athletic enough to match up in coverage and can even cause problems as a pass rusher. The talented LB will enter his third year in the league and should fit well into Hafley’s scheme.

As mentioned, the Packers drafted A&M’s Cooper in the 2nd-Round. At A&M he was a coverage or what is called a $-backer and should match the skill set with Walker, who can play more in the box. If Hafley wants to run a true 4-3, Isaiah McDuffie (LB55) can play that spot near the line of scrimmage (Sam). In the 3rd Round, the Packers selected Mizzou’s Ty’ron Hopper, who will most likely back up Walker.

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» Secondary:

Like everywhere on the Green Bay defense, more production and a return to elevated play are needed in the secondary. Their pair of CBs, Eric Stokes and Jaire Alexander (CB91), should be a solid pair. The reality is they just aren’t.

Stokes was drafted in ‘21 and had a tremendous rookie campaign. For the past two years, he has struggled to finish the season, and last year, he appeared in only three games. The Packers did not pick up his fifth-year option, and he will need to play for a contract this season.

Alexander was an All-Pro in ‘20 and ‘22 and missed most of the season in ‘21 and over half the season in ‘23. There was also the strange incident where he ‘crashed the coin toss’ and was suspended by the team. If Alexander goes with his pattern of play, he should be an All-Pro again in ‘24.

The talent is there for both Alexander and Stokes. The former has proven he can play at a high level when healthy, but he’s 27, so there is little time to right the ship. Stokes needs to produce, or he will find himself on the outside looking in.

The Packers have a quality backup in Carrington Valentine (CB37), who has stepped in when both Alexander and Stokes have been out. At Slot, Keisian Nixon (Ni11) is a solid piece that adds value when blitzing and is the team’s main return threat.

At Safety, the Packers are ushering in two new starters. Jonathan Owens (S44) is headed to the Bears, and Darnell Savage is moving to the AFC with the Jaguars. Packers Draftee Georgia’s Javon Bullard will likely play the Post Safety, with former Giant Xavier McKinney (S15) playing closer to the box.

McKinney should be an upgrade and fits perfectly into the scheme Hafley is trying to implement. Similar to the Browns and the Cowboys (now Commanders), the Packers will base in Cover 1 and use Cover 3 when they want to play zone. Quarters most likely be the 3rd Down coverage. McKinney is one of the better Box/Slot Safeties in the NFL. Bullard gives Hafley some flexibility, as he can play anywhere from the Slot to the Post.

In the modern NFL, a defense needs two hybrid Safeties that can play down and back. McKinney and Bullard give Hafely a good pair to work with. Along with Bullard, Green Bay drafted two other Safeties that can be used as backups and in specific packages (Dime).

Oregon’s Evan Williams (4th) is a mixed-use Safety who will most likely back up Bullard and maybe even push for playing time. In the Ducks system, similar to Georgia’s (Bullard) Williams was used in a variety of ways and in different coverages. In the 5th Round, the Packers selected Kitan Oladapo, a true Down Safety who will even moonlight as a Dime ‘backer or near-box enforcer.

The draft illustrated how Green Bay wanted to pivot and create diversity in the Safety room. In the draft alone, they were able to get three types: Cover, Down, and Dime. If the pick of Bullard hits, the Packers could arguably say they upgraded their Safety room.

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» Packers Resources: