The Denver Broncos Double Mug Series vs. the Chargers
Vance Joesph & Co. brought the heat in LA.
The Denver Broncos’ defensive season can be broken into three parts. In the first portion of the season, the Broncos had a historically bad defense with one of the worst performances ever in NFL history. Denver’s loss to the Dolphins, 70-20, was the most points given up since 1966. The Broncos were only the fourth team to give up that many points.
Many called for the firing of Defensive Coordinator Vance Joesph at the time, but Head Coach Sean Payton stayed the course. Denver would garner a win against the Bears but lose to the Jets the following week, where former HC Nathaniel Hackett was the OC, and again to the Chiefs on Thursday night. The Broncos had the worst defense in the NFL through six weeks, and it wasn’t particularly close (above).
After the loss to the Dolphins, Joseph and the staff began to reshuffle the secondary and traded away EDGE Randy Gregory to the 49ers. In particular, two CBs were replaced; Damarri Mathis was replaced by Fabian Moreau, and UDFA Ja’Quan McMillian unseated Ni Essang Bassey. Finally, long-time veteran Kareem Jackson was replaced by PJ Locke. Morneau excelled once placed in a starting role, with a Forced Incompletion Rate (FINC) of 11.7% (Surtain = 11.8%) and a QB Rating against of 76.1 (Surtain = 85.5).
Heading into their matchup with the Packers, the Broncos had 10 days to recalibrate. NFL teams call these mini-bye weeks because the staff gets three extra prep days. The staff didn’t wholesale change their philosophies or shift away from coverage concepts.
From the outside, it appeared Joseph returned to more comfortable concepts and did not try to reverse engineer some of the schemes Panthers DC Ejiro Evero ran the previous year. In reality, that probably doesn’t explain the growth post-bye. For context, looking at PFF, the coverage rates pre-Packers are very similar to those post-Packers. These were slight adjustments by the staff and not wholesale changes, but the personnel pivot post-bye had a monumental change on the defense’s trajectory.
The win at home against Green Bay would be a catalyst for change for the rest of the season. Post-Packers is season number two. From Week 6 on, the Broncos would ascent as high as #4 in total EPA, according to RBSDM.com, and finish as the seventh-best defense in that metric. More importantly, the secondary played at a very high level, finishing fifth in Success Rate from Week 7 to 18.
A five-game win streak followed by a 2-4 finish would leave the Broncos just outside the playoff picture. Following the loss to the Patriots, embattled quarterback Russell Wilson was benched for Jared Stidham. Within that 2-4 finish, the Broncos would beat the Chargers twice (within Season #3).
In Week 10, Joseph used a Double Mug presentation to toy with LA’s pass protection schemes. In total, the Broncos would accumulate six sacks. The presentation was mainly used on 3rd Downs, where the Broncos held LA to 0-12 on 3rd Down and 1-6 on 4th Down. Joesph had the Chargers’ protections dialed in all night.
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