MatchQuarters' NFL Season Previews: Eagles, Seahawks, and Chargers
Each one of these teams has the potential for a major turnaround. The Eagles (finally) hired their man in Vic Fangio, Pete is finally gone in Seattle, and the wunderkind Jesse Minter landed in LA.
Each week leading up to the season, I will review the roster, schemes, and outlook for each defense in the NFL. I have a depth chart for every team with their 2023 Field Vision Sports HAVOC rankings and scores. Projected rookie starters will receive the league average HAVOC for that position. Notable losses are located in the upper left-hand corner. Click on the picture to expand for a better look.
What is HAVOC? I wanted to create a metric that better understood how defenders play within their scheme. For the D-line and LBs, it is pretty straightforward. Can you fit the run and create a pass rush? For LBs and some Edges, coverages have also been added.
In the secondary, it can get complicated. Not every team runs the same amount of coverage. Some, like Dan Quinn, Jim Schwartz, and Gus Bradley, live in a singular style of play, while others, namely Mike Macdonald and Vic Fangio, choose to play a multitude of coverages. I wanted to create a more nuanced way to look at DB play. How are they playing within man and zone schemes, and how diverse is their coverage palate?
Utilizing HAVOC, which is biased towards player and scheme usage, we can better understand how these players are used within the ecosystem they play in. A great example is Seattle’s Riq Woolen, one of the best man coverage CBs in the game but struggles at zone (and can’t tackle). Team-wise, the Browns have three CBs that excel at man coverage, which suits what DC Schwartz is trying to do.
HAVOC allows us to track free agency signings and paint a better picture of their fit. Should the Commanders, who will play mainly man and 3-match coverages, bring in a zone-centric CB? No, that wouldn’t be wise. Using HAVOC allows us to see how teams are building their rosters defensively. So remember, these numbers show how productive the player was in the scheme they played in last year, which is reflected against their peers in their overall ranking.
The ‘Eagle’ has finally landed in Philadelphia. The Eagles have wanted their defense to resemble Vic Fangio’s for the past two seasons. Fangio was a consultant in 2022, helping Jonathan Gannon create game plans and giving his opinion about opponents. Gannon’s defense looked similar to Fangio’s, but the Cardinals’ Head Coach wanted to run Quarters for Fangio’s ‘targeted’ split-field coverages.
Following Gannon’s departure to Arizona, the Eagles tried to get Fangio to be their DC last year. Instead, he opted to head to South Beach. So, the organization turned to Sean Desai, a widely respected Fangio disciple who worked for the Chicago coach. In short, the hire didn’t work out. The two finally connected this past off-season, with the Eagles looking for a DC and Fangio looking for a job.
The Fangio scheme stems from the Capers/LeBeau tree that was started in ‘89 with the Saints under Jim Mora. Over time, Fangio has developed a unique way of running that system. For the most part, he wants to disguise coverages pre and post-snap. Most of the time this is done from a split-field look, but even the structures of his coverage can make the QB ‘see’ things that aren’t there.
One of the knocks on Fangio's defenses is that they struggle against the run. Without dominant D-line play, the defense can give up large chunks of yardage on the ground, keeping the offense on schedule. The system is similar to Nick Saban’s in the way it is very coverage-centric. The passing game takes priority, and the need for a dominant pass rush is ever-present.
At each level, the Eagles have given Fangio multidimensional pieces to work with. The front five, including some back-ups, give Philly depth and the ability to rotate on standard downs and create packages to counter specific offenses. The secondary, in particular, has multi-tool pieces at every position. In the modern game, the defense needs the ability to package players together each week that match up with their opponents. The Eagles appear, on paper, to have that ability.
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» D-Line:
Fangio is not blitz-heavy, rather relying on coverage disguise to apply ‘passive pressure’ on the QB. Josh Sweat (ED17) and new addition Bryce Huff (ED22) will combine with last year’s 1st Round draft pick Nolan Smith, and wily veteran Brandon Graham will be tasked with creating pressure on the edge. Huff and Sweat have both proven to be explosive, but the Eagles will be looking for Nolan to take that next step in year two.
Inside, the Eagles are relatively stout. The duo of Jordan Davis (iDL81) and Jalen Carter (iDL17) has to potential to be a black hole for offenses. For Davis, there are concerns about conditioning, and similar to Nolan, another Georgia Bulldog, he needs his production to match his 1st Round selection.
Carter was an instant star last year and will pair with Milton Williams (iDL40) to form the DEs in the Eagles 3-4 Base. Both Carter and Williams can complement each other’s game, too. Carter is a ‘quick’ tackle who can produce in the passing game, while Williams can hold it down in the run game. Combined with the rest of the D-line group, the potential is there to give Fangio a comprehensive front five.
» Linebackers:
The linebacker position in the Fangio system requires a workhorse mentality. In Base and Penny (5-1), the second-level defenders will be required to fit the A-gap (which, hopefully, Davis has plugged) and track the RB to the edge. Coverage is a priority, but not man coverage. Fangio runs a zone-heavy scheme, so the LBs need to be able to play with vision underneath or match a RB.
The addition of Devin White (LB34) from the Buccaneers seems to be a great fit. The veteran LB is above average in all three phases of play: coverage, pass rush, and run-stopping ability. His tools as a blitzer will allow Fangio to expand his usage of personnel.
Alongside White will be Nakobe Dean (LB69). Where White is a complete LB, Dean is more of a pass rush/blitz specialist. Fangio will be able to use his skill set on 3rd Down, but the young player will need to develop in the coverage aspect of his game to challenge White for a starting role in sub packages, namely Penny. For a coverage-heavy scheme, the Eagles have assembled a good amount of pass rush specialists in the first two levels of their defense.
» Secondary:
The secondary will be relatively revamped from last year. Darius Slay (CB45) and Reed Blankenship (S48) are returning starters. CJ Gardner-Johnson (S59) returns to Philly and will most likely take the Down Safety role on early downs. Blankenship and backup Sydney Brown (S71) will play the Free Safety position. Fangio typically plays right and left Safeties, but he can target where he wants his personnel on early downs.
Gardner-Johnson has been known to be a TE match-up specialist throughout his career and plays well near the box. Last year, Brown was a ‘joker’ piece that could play near the box, in the slot, or deep. The ability to be multiple will help him push Blankenship for playing time. If they can find room in the cap, I'd also suspect that former Broncos Safety Justin Simmons (S6) is on a short list of veterans that the Eagles might add before Fall Camp.
At CB, Slay will be paired with 1st Round CB Quinyon Mitchell. At Toledo, Mitchell played in a Quarters-heavy scheme and utilized a multitude of techniques. Though coming from a small school, Mitchell has elite athleticism and a diverse toolbox to pull from. At Ni, I suspect Iowa’s Cooper DeJean gets the starting nod over Avonte Maddox (Ni71). Maddox excels against the run, where I have him ranked 18th among his peers, but DeJean will be a more coverage-friendly choice and someone who can play outside and inside for the Eagles.
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» Fangio Resources:
**Plenty more in the Archive & Clinic Archive (Search ‘Fangio’)
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It is a new era in Seattle with the departure of long-time coach Pete Carroll. The Legion of Boom days are long gone, and though Carroll’s defense quickly permeated throughout the league, his disciples have all had to go back to the drawing board in some regards. Mike Macdonald is a rising star in the NFL. In the past two seasons, he has resurrected the defensive culture in Baltimore.
Macdonald will be tasked with a similar job with the Seahawks. The pieces are there on the defense to be good. Outside of a lack of pass rush, each level has elite talent. One of Macdonald’s key aspects is his ability to distill information to his players. The playbook he used in Baltimore was very similar to the one his predecessor, Wink Martindale, used. The philosophy and approach were vastly different.
The Ravens were able to climb to the top of nearly every defensive metric last year. There are holes in the Seattle defensive roster, but Macdonald has a knack for putting pieces together and creating elite defenses. The only question is will he have the mental conditioning to be a rookie head coach and help on the defensive side of the ball?
Seattle will be based on a multiple 3-4 scheme. Macdonald is very coverage diverse compared to his peers, and I don’t see that changing now that he is the Head Coach. A stable pass rush will need to be created, but again, Macdonald was able to do that in Baltimore, resurrecting the career if Jadevion Clowney (10+ sacks). The Seahawks’ defense will need some Macdonald's magic if they are going to produce at a rate to catch up to the 49ers.
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» D-Line:
Starting outside, the Seahawks desperately need a pass rush opposite Boye Mafe (ED34). Uchenna Nwosu (ED104) is serviceable, but Macdonald will need him to raise his level of play along with Derick Hall and Darrell Taylor, who didn’t produce much push last year. Macdonald was able to maximize the talent in Baltimore, so there is hope in Seattle.
Inside, the Seahawks have a talented group, including the 1st Round addition of Texas’ Byron Murphy. Leonard Williams (iDL18), Jarren Reed (iDL23), and Dre’Mont Jones (iDL30) are all in the top third in HAVOC. Combined with Murphy, this has the potential to be a stellar interior defensive line. Seahawk fans should be excited about this group.
Though much is made about the edges of the defense, the interior D-line plays a critical role in the ability of a defense to stop an opponent. By occupying the inside of the box, the defense can then allocate numbers elsewhere. It changes the math. Macdonald’s philosophy is ‘Stop the run to have some fun,’ which means the ability of the defense to stop the run with fewer numbers allows the defense to then allocate more numbers to the passing game.
» Linebackers:
Though Bobby Wagner is gone, the Seahawks still have two serviceable ILBs. Tryel Dodson (LB21) comes over from the Bills and should excel in Macdonald’s zone-centric scheme. Alongside him will be Jerome Baker (LB60), who came over from Miami and is another piece who is used to playing in zone coverage. In the draft, the Seahawks selected Tyrice Knight of UTEP, who will be paired with Drake Thomas in backup roles.
» Secondary:
The secondary might be the best unit on the team. One glaring need is a third CB, but Seattle is deep at the Safety position and could use one of them to be a ‘big’ Ni. Macdonald used a plethora of packages in Baltimore, and the secondary in Seattle gives him the same opportunity. Currently, Devon Witherspoon (CB17) is slated to be in the Slot. He is ranked #13 at that position and is the top blitzing CB.
Seattle will run a 3-4 base, but Macdonald likes to use multiple packages. Last year, he used Safety Kyle Hamilton in multiple roles. Depending on the opponent, Witherspoon can match up outside or move into the Slot. At Safety, the Seahawks have three of the best Safeties in the NFL. Rayshawn Jenkins (Jaguars/S19), K’von Wallace (Titans/S22), and Julian Love (S27) will compete for the two starting roles. One of them will become the ‘big’ Ni.
A wildcard in this is the development of either rookie CB DJ James or Nehemiah Pritchett. If one of them can prove to play the Slot or push Micheal Jackson (CB142) or Tre Brown (CB122) for a starring role outside, that would give Macdonald a ton of schematic freedom. The issue in this secondary is that starting outside CB when Witherspoon is in the Slot if that can be settled, the turnaround in Seattle could be exponential.
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» Macdonald Resouces:
Former Chargers Head Coach Brandon Staley was tabbed to be the Sean McVay of defense. After three lackluster years in LA, Staley was let go. Last year, the secondary fell into disrepair, and elite talent like Joey Bosa (ED72) struggled to produce. In steps Jim Harbaugh, who is coming off a National Championship at Michigan.
Similar to Macdonald in Seattle, newly minted DC Jesse Minter has all the makings of becoming a rising star in the NFL. Minter and Macdonald come from the Ravens coaching tree and have worked in Baltimore and Michigan.
The two run the same defense, but each has their own unique style. Minter runs slightly more closed-post coverage and pairs that usage with non-traditional Tampas as a change-up. Macdonald is slightly less passive when it comes to blitzing, but both are far pressure-heavy. Minter does have an affinity for bringing the Ni, though. Like Fangio, both prefer to use passive pressures, like coverage disguise and simulated pressures, to counter offensive attacks.
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» D-Line:
Khalil Mack (ED5) and Joey Bosa should be a dynamic duo on paper. Both have proven to be elite but for whatever reason, could never find their groove together because of injury or inconsistent play. Minter will hope that both can get back to their old ways. Behind them will be Bud Dupree (ED94), who will be looking to have a resurgence in his career, and last year's 2nd-round pick Tuli Tuipulotu (ED30), who had a tremendous year for a rookie. Combined, this has the makings of a solid unit.
Inside, Poona Ford (iDL98) will be looking for a bounce-back year after his one-year stint in Buffalo. Ford has the ability to clog the middle of the field and be a solid addition to an early down pass rush. Beside him will be Morgan Fox (iDL56) and Otito Ogbonnia (iDL99). Fox can play anything from a 5 tech. to a 2i and be the quick tackle in Ni packages. Ford and Ogbonnia will fight to be that other piece. This solid group will need to work to keep the Chargers’ Edges and LBs clean.
» Linebackers:
One of the glaring issues during Staley's tenure was the lack of LB play. The LA brass went about changing that this offseason by bringing in Denzel Perryman (LB70) from the Texans and selecting Junior Colson (Michigan) in the 3rd Round. Colson should be familiar with the playbook and will push Perryman to be the solo ‘backer in sub packages. If the interior of the DL can keep the LBs clean, this is a decent unit to build off of in year one under Minter.
» Secondary
The most work on the defense will need to be done in the secondary. Similar to Mack and Bosa upfront, Derwin James (S86) and Asante Samuel Jr (CB111) are talented yet have had vastly inconsistent play. Most pundits would agree that the play last year is not indicative of their talent. Minter needs to right the ship immediately in order for this defense to have any success.
James has been one of the best blitzing Safeties in the league for years. He’s a toolsy Safety who has the ability to play near the box. Minter loves to move guys around, and James should see a resurgence in his play. Alongside him will be Alohi Gilman (S57) in combination with JT Woods, with the latter having limited playing time in the two years he’s been in LA. Gilman has been a nice surprise and is an above-average talent.
Like many on the Chargers, Samuel will need to have a resurgence in play to make the ‘24 campaign successful for the Chargers defense. Opposite him will be Kristian Fulton, who struggled last year with inconsistent play. Dean Leonard and rookie Cam Hart will fight for backup spots. At Ni Ja’Sir, Taylor (Ni27) will compete with rookie Tarheeb Still to start inside.
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