MatchQuarters' NFL Season Previews: The Los Angeles Rams and Miami Dolphins
It's a new era for both these defenses. For LA, Aaron Donald departs along with DC Raheem Morris (Falcons). In Miami, an almost total overhaul of the defense from players to scheme is underway.
Each week leading up to the season, I will review the roster, schemes, and outlook for each defense in the NFL. I have a depth chart for every team with their 2023 Field Vision Sports HAVOC rankings and scores. Projected rookie starters will receive the league average HAVOC for that position. Notable losses are located in the upper left-hand corner. Click on the picture to expand for a better look.
What is HAVOC? I wanted to create a metric that better understood how defenders play within their scheme. For the D-line and LBs, it is pretty straightforward. Can you fit the run and create a pass rush? For LBs and some Edges, coverages have also been added.
In the secondary, it can get complicated. Not every team runs the same amount of coverage. Some, like Dan Quinn, Jim Schwartz, and Gus Bradley, live in a singular style of play, while others, namely Mike Macdonald and Vic Fangio, choose to play a multitude of coverages. I wanted to create a more nuanced way to look at DB play. How are they playing within man and zone schemes, and how diverse is their coverage palate?
Utilizing HAVOC, which is biased towards player and scheme usage, we can better understand how these players are used within the ecosystem they play in. A great example is Seattle’s Riq Woolen, one of the best man coverage CBs in the game but struggles at zone. Team-wise, the Browns have three CBs that excel at man coverage, which suits what DC Schwartz is trying to do.
HAVOC allows us to track free agency signings and paint a better picture of their fit. Should the Commanders, who will play mainly man and 3-match coverages, bring in a zone-centric CB? No, that wouldn’t be wise. Using HAVOC allows us to see how teams are building their rosters defensively. So remember, these numbers show how productive the player was in the scheme they played in last year, which is reflected against their peers in their overall ranking.
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The Dolphins are kicking one popular defensive scheme out the door and pivoting to another. Former defensive coordinator Vic Fangio was one of the most sought-after DCs in last year’s cycle. It ultimately didn’t work out in Miami for whatever reason, and the defense went stale.
Fangio is now in Philly, and the Dolphins brought Anthony Weaver from Baltimore to fix the defense. Weaver has a long history as a D-line coach and came under the Ravens system in ‘21 as the D-line coach for Wink Martindale. Prior to his time with Baltimore, Weaver spent time with Romeo Crennel (Texans) and current Lions assistant Jim O’Neil with the Browns.
Known as an excellent pass rush specialist, Weaver will be tasked with getting the Dolphins’ talented Edges back on track. Along with Weaver, former Packers DC Joe Barry will be the run-game coordinator, and Brian Duker, who has been with Weaver in Baltimore and is coming from Detroit.
It is hard to say what the defense will look like exactly. Barry has run a Fangio-adjacent scheme, and Duker has spent time with Wink Martindale (Michigan) and Aaron Glenn (Lions), who run closed-post-man coverage-heavy defenses. Weaver will have to decide how much of Mike Macdonald’s (Seahawks) scheme he wants to carry.
Much has been said about how Macdonald helped streamline the process in Baltimore and revamp the coverage system to handle more diversity. Hiring Barry and Duker symbolizes a potential step back to what the Ravens system used to be under Martindale. I see this playing out similar to how Raheem Morris modified Branden Staley’s version of defense to fit his own.
Do I think Weaver is going to roll the clock back and run Martindale’s aggressive man-centric scheme? No. Do I think it will be a nice median? Probably. The Dolphins have replaced almost half of their defense. Losses include iDL Christian Wilkens, CB Xavien Howard, LB Jerome Baker, ED Andrew Can Ginkel, and Safety Brandon Jones. Outside of Wilkins, Miami would argue they upgraded at every position.
I see the Dolphins featuring an above-average blitz rate, sending five defenders most of the time. Fangio utilized his Edges in coverage, but I see Weaver opting to let them rush and answer issues with the backend. Though I see less coverage diversity than what Miami ran under Fangio, we will still see some multiplicity. More or less, the system will be similar, but not the same as last year’s.
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» D-Line:
Lossing Wilkens (DL28) is a massive loss for the Dolphins, and his production will try and be supplemented by committee. This offseason, Miami has signed a multitude of interior linemen: Calais Campbell (Falcons/ED41), Teair Tart (Texans/DL85), Jonathan Harris (Broncos/DL/72), Benito Jones (Lions/DL80) and Neville Gallimore (Cowboys/DL89). The hope is that the team, along with holdover Zach Sieler (DL29), can manufacture a better run defense and interior pass rush.
Tart and Jones are your bonafide Noses. Campbell is an ageless wonder, still able to produce at 37 years old. Sieler is a solid iDL opposite of Campbell. Harris and Gallimore will compete with Da’Shawn Hand (DL138) for playing time.
At Edge, the Dolphins, on paper, have an opportunity to be elite. Bradley Chubb (ED24) was brought over to be featured in Fangio’s defense from the Broncos. Last year, he totaled 12 sacks and has the potential to be even more dangerous in a pass-rush forward system. Opposite Chubb is Jaelan Phillips (ED61). Phillips had an Achilles injury that cut his season in half last year. He finished with 6.5 sacks and could have finally eclipsed the double-digit sack mark had he stayed healthy. With Van Ginkel gone to the Vikings, Phillips will hold sole possession of the starting role.
As an assurance, the Dolphins selected Penn State’s Chop Robinson in the 1st Round and brought in Buccaneer Edge Shaq Barrett (ED33). Modern defenses are now collecting Edges and CBs, so having a four-man deep roster at Edge is becoming the norm. Barrett and Robinson should be able to keep Chubb and Phillips fresh, and if he can’t go, more than serviceable replacements for the latter.
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» Linebackers:
David Long Jr. (LB24) is one of the best run-stuffing LBs in the league. He can make up for what he lacks in coverage and pass rush in plugging his gap. Still, Long has an excellent pressure rate of 22.7%. At Tennessee, he was asked to blitz at volume, and though his sack numbers are not high, he gets the job done.
Alongside him is Jordyn Brooks (LB106), who comes over from the Seahawks. The two teams basically swapped ILB. Brooks was a 1st Round selection for Seattle in 2020, but they felt the need to move on. In the words of Seattle GM Jon Schneider, the priority for the Seahawks was iDL Leonard Williams, not LB:
“…[the Dolphins] had a deal on the table and we just couldn’t move as quickly as they did… We had prioritized Leonard ahead of the linebacker position at that point.”
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» Secondary:
The secondary is where the Dolphins can argue they upgraded at the position. Gone is long-time Dolphin Xavien Howard (CB181), replaced by one of the best CBs in the league, Kendall Fuller (CB4). Fuller brings the coverage diversity background the Dolphins are looking for under Weaver.
Fuller will be paired with Jalen Ramsey (CB56), who still has the potential to be one of the best CBs in the league. Fuller/Ramsey can be a two-man wrecking crew on offenses. If Duker’s background is any indication, expect the Dolphins to play more man and match Quarters, something both CBs excel at. Both CBs are off-ball in technique, which allows the Dolphins to disguise their coverages with different alignments.
At Safety, Miami brought in Jordan Poyer (S20) from the Bills to replace Brandon Jones (S80). Poyer is a zone coverage Safety who can play near the box. He is ranked in the top 20 in both run support and pass rush HAVOC for Safeties. Jevon Holland (S90) will be alongside Poyer. Holland only played in 10 games last year, which is why his rating is low.
Both Holland and Poyer have the ability to play near the box. That diversity allows the Dolphins to play from a two-high shell and use each Safety in different packages. The wildcard in this group is Marcus Maye (S75), who, at 31, has not completed a full season in three years. When healthy, he can be one of the best Safeties in the league. Hopefully, he can stay on the field with more of a targeted role.
The Ni will most likely be Kader Kohou (Ni34) and one of the Safeties in a ‘Big Ni’ package. Kohou excels at rushing the passer; he’s fifth in PR HAVOC for CBs. Similar to how other teams build diversity in their secondary, the Dolphins are aligned in that trend.
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Not only did the Rams draft a player in the 1st Round of this year's draft, but it also came on the defensive side. Florida State’s ED Jared Verse was selected to supplant Micheal Hoecht (ED53), who I could see moving inside on certain packages. In the 2nd Round, the Rams also went defense, selecting Verse’s partner at Florida State in Braden Fiske. Since the draft, the Rams have talked about how well these two worked together, which was a catalyst for selecting them both.
This is a unit that has seen a depletion of talent over the years. With Aaron Donald in retirement and Raheem Morris off to Atlanta, LA felt they needed to revamp areas of their defense. Morris had done an excellent job of retooling Branden Staley’s scheme to fit his needs, and that task will now fall to Chris Shula, who has been with the Rams since 2017.
The Rams scheme is 3-4 based and used their Edges to help alleviate issues in the backend. Moving to get Verse symbolizes a want to get back to rushing the passer. Hoecht, at nearly 310 lbs, was constantly in coverage last year to help a secondary that needed to play top-down. Morris did play more Cover 1, even pressing WRs, which was something lacking ‘22/
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Shula will be handed the reigns of a rebuilt secondary and D-line. Aaron Donald’s lack of presence cannot be understated, but the team feels they have a sleeping giant in Kobie Turner (DL16). The draft also allows Shula to have more flexibility up front. Hoecht can easily move inside in Ni packages and be a quick 3 tech, allowing Fiske to grow in his role.
The two main losses on defense, Jonah Williams (Vikings/DL39) and Jordan Fuller (Panthers/S55), have arguably been replaced by better talent. Even if Fiske struggles, Shula has options to work with. Something Morris could argue he never really had the past few years.
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» D-Line:
Let’s repeat: Aaron Donald is gone. Now, there is no way to reproduce the production of the future Hall of Famer, but as mentioned, the Rams are excited about the prospects of Kobie Turner, who had a breakout year last year. Turne will be paired with Fiske to start, which gives them a versatile pair inside. NG Bobby Brown (DL94) is a typical Nose that will most likely only see time in Base or the Rams Penny packages (5-1 Ni).
Verse will be paired with Byron Young (ED55), who can now focus more on rushing the passer. Young is a candidate for a breakout year. Both Hoecht and Young had to be used at volume in the secondary. The passiveness on the edge is obviously something the team wanted to rectify heading into this season.
Hoecht is an interesting piece. He has the size of a DT, but the quickness and athleticism of Edge. Seeing him drop into coverage so many times last year was frustrating for many pundits and fans. The lack of talent in the backend directly correlated to him being used as an extra-coverage defender. By utilizing the Edges in coverage down low, the DBs and LBs could focus on getting depth in their drops.
With Donald gone and finally some depth, Shula & Co. can move guys around to create mismatches. Donald was so dominant in the scheme that he was often the chess piece while other defenders became predictable. Now, with more depth, the team can potentially create more looks.
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» Linebackers:
Ernest Jones had a breakout season in ‘23. Jones was one of the best coverage defenders at the LB spot last season. He even accumulated 5.5 sacks when rushing the passer, which I had him as the #1 overall LB when blitzing. In Morris’ scheme, Jones was the solo ‘backer in Penny (5-1). Jones is in a contract year, so look for the production to continue.
Christian Rozenboom (LB105) will be Jones’ partner when the Rams are in Base or Ni (4-2-5). With the way the Rams have structured their defense under Morris, the team only needs one dominant LB. Rozenboom, when playing, is serviceable and good at coverage. His skill set allows Jones to be the blitzing LB on a majority of the downs.
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» Secondary:
The secondary is where the Rams put in a lot of capital this offseason. LA brought back Darious Williams (CB10) from the Jaguars and Tre’Davious White (CB106), injured early last season for the Bills. The CB spot since the departure of Jalen Ramsey to the Dolphins has been an eye soar. Both come with some baggage, though.
Williams is 31 years old, and though he is coming off a fantastic year, his ability to play at a high level is coming to an end. The Jaguars made him a cap causality this off-season. White is coming off a torn Achilles and is 29 years old. Williams signed a three-year contract and looks to end his career in LA, while White is on a one-year deal.
Behind both are Derion Kindrick (CB98), Cobie Durant (CB188), and Tre Tomlinson. Kindrick showed flashes last season and will need to shore up his inconsistent play if he pushes for playing time behind White or Williams. In reality, the Rams are betting White and Williams will stay healthy because the depth is not there.
Russ Yeast (S146) will compete for a starting role with 3rd-round draft pick Kamren Kitchens from Miami and last year's 7th-round pick Jason Taylor. If there is one spot that is a glaring need, it is Safety. The Rams don’t have a lot of cap space to work with, so someone like Justin Simmons might be a stretch to get.
Kamren Curl will play opposite Yeast and should be a diverse piece for Shula to work with. One of the reasons Curl was on the Rams' radar was his coverage diversity. I have him as the #6 Safety in zone coverage, something the Rams lean heavily into. Curl also can play near the box, making him a perfect fit in the system.
Finally, the Ni spot will fall to Quentin Lake (Ni25). Lake is superb when rushing the passer and is not asked to do much outside the Rams system's main coverages.
» NFL Defensive Previews:
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Not sure if I was a dolphins fan I’d love Joe Barry as the run game coordinator