MatchQuarters' NFL Season Previews: The Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans
The AFC South is quickly becoming an intriguing conference full of young stars. The Texans have multiple young cornerstone pieces, while the Titans are rebuilding via free agency.
Each week leading up to the season, I will review the roster, schemes, and outlook for each defense in the NFL. I have a depth chart for every team with their 2023 Field Vision Sports HAVOC rankings and scores. Projected rookie starters will receive the league average HAVOC for that position. Notable losses are located in the upper left-hand corner. Click on the picture to expand for a better look.
What is HAVOC? I wanted to create a metric that better understood how defenders play within their scheme. For the D-line and LBs, it is pretty straightforward. Can you fit the run and create a pass rush? For LBs and some Edges, coverages have also been added.
In the secondary, it can get complicated. Not every team runs the same amount of coverage. Some, like Dan Quinn, Jim Schwartz, and Gus Bradley, live in a singular style of play, while others, namely Mike Macdonald and Vic Fangio, choose to play a multitude of coverages. I wanted to create a more nuanced way to look at DB play. How are they playing within man and zone schemes, and how diverse is their coverage palate?
Utilizing HAVOC, which is biased towards player and scheme usage, we can better understand how these players are used within the ecosystem they play in. A great example is Seattle’s Riq Woolen, one of the best man coverage CBs in the game but struggles at zone. Team-wise, the Browns have three CBs that excel at man coverage, which suits what DC Schwartz is trying to do.
HAVOC allows us to track free agency signings and paint a better picture of their fit. Should the Commanders, who will play mainly man and 3-match coverages, bring in a zone-centric CB? No, that wouldn’t be wise. Using HAVOC allows us to see how teams are building their rosters defensively. So remember, these numbers show how productive the player was in the scheme they played in last year, which is reflected against their peers in their overall ranking.
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The offense in Houston is the main focus nationally, but the defense has some young pieces that should be cornerstones for success going forward. It order to win championships in this league, a team needs to have an elite QB. If that said team can get hit in the draft and have him on a rookie contract, you double down.
The Texans brought in RB Joe Mixon and WR Stefon Diggs this offseason to add depth and star power alongside Nico Collins and CJ Stroud. Everything offensively looks set to explode in ‘24.
Defensively, Houston has completely rebuilt the D-line. Rookie Will Andeson Jr. (ED9) continued his dominance at Alabama into the NFL, earning Defensive Rookie of the Year. But he’s not the only young star on this side of the field. CB Derek Stingly (CB5) has grown into one of the top CBs in the NFL, something everyone expected when he was drafted third overall in ‘22. Though he didn’t have instant success like his ‘22 counterpart in Sauce Gardner, both are seen as the future at their position.
With Stroud looking like a future Hall of Famer, the Texans are doing everything they can to get the team over the hump before they have to bring out the Brinks trucks for the young QB. The AFC South is wide open, and if the free agent moves hit on defense, this team has an opportunity to do something special.
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» D-Line:
Will Anderson Jr. is the cornerstone of this defense. At ‘Bama, he had the ability to move from a wide 9 to a 4i in Saban’s defense. Though Anderson didn’t get double-digit sacks, he has a great pass rush. When complemented with his ability to stop the run, he is a complete Edge.
Demeco Ryans stems from the 49ers tree (similar to the Jets’ Robert Saleh and Packers’ Jeff Hafley), which features wide DEs and looks for dominant interior play. Inside, the Texans have completely reshaped their unit.
Folorunso Fatukasi (DL68) comes over from the Jaguars and will be a plugger inside at Nose. He will be paired with Denico Autry (DL40), who had 11 sacks last season. Though slight (285 lbs.), Autry can play anywhere from a 5 tech. to a quick 3 tech. Behind Autry is Mario Edwards (DL47), another athletic DT who can pass rush.
The moves this offseason along the front line seem to be centered around getting to the QB. Outside Fatukasi, every new addition excels at rushing the passer. To bookend Anderson, the Texans also brought in former Viking Danielle Hunter (ED11), who had 16.5 sacks last year. Anderson will need to continue to develop a pass rush, and everything points to that happening.
The Texans are trying to build in the 49ers model, with multiple pieces that can move around and rush the passer. Ryans’ front is built on speed, and the moves this offseason have given Houston a boost, even with the loss of Jonathan Greenard (ED27) to Minnesota.
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» Linebackers:
If there was one glaring need this offseason, it was at LB. I had the Texans unit ranked 31st in unit HAVOC last year. Houston needed to make a splash at LB, with the D-line looking to be retooled and even better in ‘24. The Titans’ LB Azeez Al-Shaair (LB45) is who the organization tabbed to come in and solidify their second level.
Blake Cashman (LB33) signed with the Vikings and Denzel Perryman (LB70) returned to the Chargers this off-season, leaving a void at Mike. Al-Shaair gives the Texans a serviceable piece that can run and cover, which is a feature of Ryans’ defense. Alongside Al-Shaair, Christian Harris (LB88) and Henry To’o’to’o (LB143) will compete to play. Harris was good in coverage last year but needs to become more productive in against the run. As for To’oTo’o, he played sparingly last year.
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» Secondary:
Jalen Pitre (S31) and Derek Stingley Jr. should be a dynamic pair for the Texans for the next decade. The rest of the unit needs to match their production. Safety Jimmie Ward (S72) is a good all-around Safety that can play the opposite of where Ryans wants to target Pitre. Behind them, 3rd Round USC Safety Calen Bulluck will back up Pitre while ‘Down’ Safaety Lonnie Johnson Jr. (S94) will back up Ward.
CB is where the team tries to find pieces that complement Stingley. Jeff Okudah (CB102) was brought in from Atlanta and will compete with rookie 2nd Round CB Kamari Lassiter from Georgia. Lassiter was thought to be a 1st Round CB, but the run on offensive players allowed him to fall into the lap of the Texans. Okudah is seen as a man coverage CB who just has not lived up to his 1st Round selection. Still, he is a serviceable veteran who can come in if needed.
At Ni, Desmond King (Ni26) was brought back to compete with former Patriots Ni Myles Bryant (Ni5). Ryans wants to base out of a Ni, and having King and Bryant gives him a dynamic duo to compete for that Ni spot. Lassiter can even take a shot at moving inside if they feel like it.
Overall, the secondary is solid and has the pieces to be successful. There are still holes to fill, but the addition of Bryant might be one of the more underrated picks this offseason. Though King is slated (as of now) to be the starter, I wouldn’t be surprised if Bryant ends the year as the starter. The real hope is Lassiter can excel and give the Texans a tough matchup at outside CB.
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I kept hearing this offseason that newly appointed Defensive Coordinator Dennard Wilson wants to press. Last year, the Titans ran a base Quarters scheme that tended to soft on the outside. This offseason, Tennessee secured the services of L’Jarius Sneed (CB10) and Chidobe Awuzie (CB53).
Sneed is already known for his ability to hard-press WRs and disrupt timing while playing in a zone-heavy scheme. Awuzie only pressed ~25% of his snaps in Cincinnati, but he also stems from a coverage-diverse scheme in Cincinnati. Tennessee is a team that has pieces, and the organization is betting on the ability of Wilson to get them to play together in one of the hottest schemes in football, which stems from the Ravens tree.
The base defense in Nashville will be a 3-4, but expect there to be multiple concepts from fronts to coverages utilized each week. The Ravens scheme has always been great on 3rd Downs, but Seattle Seahawks Head Coach Mike Macdonald streamlined the playbook and added more nuance in its coverages.
The Titans are playing in a division that has excellent young QB play. The South has the Colts’ Anthony Richardson, who looked like a star in his limited time, the Jaguars with newly paid Trevor Lawrence, and the Texans with CJ Stroud. All four of them can take over a game and are considered to be rising starts.
Combined with the other teams in the AFC, it is imperative to play defense. Tennessee has its own young QB, and the hope is that with a retooled defense, the organization can buy time for the offense to develop. Though there wasn’t a massive roster overhaul similar to the Texans, the Titans brought in pieces they felt would marry with the vision of Wilson.
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» D-Line:
Jeffery Simmons (DL21) has been one of the best interior D-linemen since entering the league in 2019. He was a back-to-back All-Pro in ‘21 and ‘22 before having a ‘down’ year in ‘23, which saw him end the season on injury reserve. Simmons signed a four year $94 million contract prior to last season. For the Titans’ defense to be dominant up front, he needs to be healthy and back in form.
In this year’s draft, the Titans selected Texas’ T’Vondre Sweat, a 6-4 362 lbs. space-eater, to be their Nose in the 2nd Round. When running their 3-4 Base defense, Sweat will be asked to plug the A-gaps. Last year at Texas, he exploded in production, going from two TFLs in ‘22 to eight this past year.
Opposite Simmons will be Sabatian Joseph-Day (DL63), who has been known as a workhorse inside. Together, the three have an opportunity to be a solid interior D-line that can get Simmons one-on-one blocking and help isolate the team's Edges against the opponent’s Tackles.
Harold Landry III (ED31) and Arden Key (ED45) will bookend the D-line at Edge. Landry is the more polished of the two and will look to build on his double-digit sack total from last year. If the inside keeps the Edges clean, both Landry and Key have the opportunity to have career years.
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» Linebackers:
The Titans lost LB Al-Shaair to the rival Texans and replaced him with former Charger Kenneth Murrary Jr, whose 5th Year Option was declined, making him a free agent. With beef up front, the Titans wanted to bring in an athletic LB that could run sideline to sideline. That would be Murray’s profile. Last year was a career year for him, and the Titans brass is hoping he continues to progress.
Alongside Murray will be Jack Gibbons (LB37), who started much of the year last season. Gibbons is great in coverage and in stopping the run, while Murray was one of the better pass-rushing LBs last season. The two should complement each other’s skill set, with Murray being able to move around while Gibbons holds down the box.
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» Secondary:
The big story this offseason was the trade for Sneed, but the Titans have several pieces in the secondary that are very good. Roger McCeary (Ni3) has developed into one of the league’s most dynamic slot defenders at Ni. Paired with Sneed, the two can lock down the entire field. Awuzie will most likely be the field CB and play opposite Sneed, who will follow their opponent’s best WR.
At Safety, the Titans have a pair that has the potential to develop into one of the better pairs in football. Amani Hooker (S32) is an excellent Down Safety who excels near the box. I have him ranked 12th in run support for Safeties. He’s even top 30 as a Slot.
Eric Molden (S54) will most likely be tabbed as the Cover or Deep Safety but can play down when asked. With Sneed, McCreary, and Hooker being able to lock down WRs, Molden will most likely be asked to cap verticals and play zone coverage. Together, this secondary looks to be upgraded and CB, which should help the Safeties develop.
» NFL Defensive Previews:
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