MatchQuarters' NFL Season Previews: Cincinnati Bengals and Chicago Bears

While one team took a major step backward defensively (Bengals) the other took a huge leap forward (Bears). How will the 2024 iteration of these defenses perform?

Jul 10, 2024

Each week leading up to the season, I will review the roster, schemes, and outlook for each defense in the NFL. I have a depth chart for every team with their 2023 Field Vision Sports HAVOC rankings and scores. Projected rookie starters will receive the league average HAVOC for that position. Notable losses are located in the upper left-hand corner. Click on the picture to expand for a better look.

What is HAVOC? I wanted to create a metric that better understood how defenders play within their scheme. For the D-line and LBs, it is pretty straightforward. Can you fit the run and create a pass rush? For LBs and some Edges, coverages have also been added.

In the secondary, it can get complicated. Not every team runs the same amount of coverage. Some, like Dan Quinn, Jim Schwartz, and Gus Bradley, live in a singular style of play, while others, namely Mike Macdonald and Vic Fangio, choose to play a multitude of coverages. I wanted to create a more nuanced way to look at DB play. How are they playing within man and zone schemes, and how diverse is their coverage palate?

Utilizing HAVOC, which is biased towards player and scheme usage, we can better understand how these players are used within the ecosystem they play in. A great example is Seattle’s Riq Woolen, one of the best man coverage CBs in the game but struggles at zone. Team-wise, the Browns have three CBs that excel at man coverage, which suits what DC Schwartz is trying to do.

HAVOC allows us to track free agency signings and paint a better picture of their fit. Should the Commanders, who will play mainly man and 3-match coverages, bring in a zone-centric CB? No, that wouldn’t be wise. Using HAVOC allows us to see how teams are building their rosters defensively. So remember, these numbers show how productive the player was in the scheme they played in last year, which is reflected against their peers in their overall ranking.

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The Bears surged on defense at the conclusion of last year, finishing as one of the best units in the NFL after Week 8. Chicago traded for Commanders DE Montez Sweat before Week 9. That trade would be the catalyst for change in the Windy City.

Nearing the end of September, Defensive Coordinator Alan Williams resigned from his post following ‘inappropriate conduct’ and cited family and health concerns. Head Coach Matt Eberflus would then re-assume the role of DC. The move to sign Sweat was a coup for a team that could not produce much pressure up front.

Eberflus runs a ‘basic’ 4-3 scheme that stems from the Tampa 2 tree. Though Cover 2 is a large part of the system, the defense is squarely rooted in middle-of-the-field closed coverages (MOFC). The static nature of the defense early in the year enabled offenses to attack the Bears without much fear of a true rush.

The introduction of Sweat boosted the front’s production and gave the secondary a reprieve from covering WRs for lengthy periods. One person doesn’t make a team, but it is hard to argue with Sweat’s overall impact. Whether psychological or production, moving to get a premier rusher in the Windy City paid massive dividends for the squad.

The system in Chicago will not change but needs to continue to evolve as the NFC North is quickly becoming one of the better conferences in football. The 2024 team will be tasked with building off the success of the second half of 2024. With new talent on offense, the organization is finally looking to get off the ground. A solid defense can be a rookie QB’s best friend, and the Bears are shaping up to have one of the better units in their division.

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» D-Line:

Though Sweat did not lead the league in sacks, his appearance on the edge in Chicago cleaned up a porus front line. Opposite Sweat will be DeMarcus Walker (ED37), who must find more production in the pass rush. Sweat and Walker are excellent at stopping the run, with the former a formidable pass rusher. If Walker can stay healthy through camp and have a quick start to the year, the sacks will come. Most of the focus will be put on stopping Sweat.

Inside Andrew Billings (iDL60) is a consummate early-down workhorse. He won’t get you sacks or many pressures, but he will demand a double team. Billings is mainly used as a ‘tilt’ Nose in Chicago’s base defense. By tiling Billings, the Center is put under tremendous pressure, and the Guard is often forced to help him out. The goal is not for Billings to accumulate a lot of stats but to keep the other three defensive linemen in one-on-ones.

At 3 technique is Gervon Dexter (iDL42), who progressed in his rookie season. Dexter is a better pass rusher or ‘quick’ Tackle right now but needs to find more productivity in the run game. Losing Justin Jones (iDL62) to the Cardinals leaves the door open for the young crop of iDL in Chicago to step up and play. One name to look for is UDFA rookie Kieth Randolph who was very productive at Illinois.

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» Linebackers:

TJ Edwards (LB8) and Tremaine Edmonds (LB63) were brought in by the Bears and made an instant impact. Both LBs are excellent in coverage, with Edwards rated as the #1 coverage LB in 2023. Neither one adds much in the pass rush, which is fine considering the scheme in Chicago.

The zone coverage base defense of Everflus puts tremendous pressure on the LBs to run and hit in coverage. Both Edwards and Edmonds excel at that. Edmonds can evolve into more of a complete LB if he can add to his blitz game this offseason. It appears that Chicago has another top linebacker on defense.

Behind both Edmonds and Edwards are Noah Sewell (LB113) and Jack Sanborn (LB58). Both backups had completely different roles. Sewell was mainly used as a hybrid OLB who would come in when the Bears wanted to run a five-man front. Sanborn was the swing LB that backed up the two off-ball LBs.

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» Secondary:

The secondary has an elite CB in Jaylon Johnson (CB3) and one of the best Ni’s in Kyler Gordon (Ni2). Safety Jaquan Brisker (S11) is also quickly becoming a top player. The young corp will be joined by Kevin Byard III (S13) via free agency from the Eagles. Tyrique Stevenson (CB35) had a tremendous finish to his rookie year.

Chicago has the opportunity to have one of the best secondaries in the NFL if Stevenson can continue to ascend. Gordon is already one of the best Ni’s in the game, and Johnson has proven he can be a lockdown CB. If all stay healthy, the Bears have a trio of CBs that most teams would envy.

The duo of Brisker and Byard allows Eberflus to play right and left with his safeties. One trend on defense is the use of hybrid Safeties that can play down or back. Both of Chicago’s safeties are serviceable and good in most Bears' coverages. If there is hope that Chicago continues their upward trend on defense, it is in the secondary. On paper, this is an elite unit.

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» Chicago Bears Resources:

December 6, 2023

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Look, you need an elite (and healthy) QB in the NFL to win a Super Bowl. But you also need a top defense. Only Patrick Mahomes has proven otherwise. The Bengals lost their starting QB Joe Burrow to injury, and the wheel fell off on defense compared to past results.

Lou Anarumo is widely considered one of the best defensive coordinators in the NFL. Sometimes, you go through tough years. Even with Burrow out, the Bengals were able to push for a playoff spot and finish 9-8, which is why there is hope of a resurgence in Cincy. The 4-2 defense installed by Anarumo uses the front four to be disruptive and relies on the secondary to do their job in their post-snap rotations.

Last season, the Bengals’ secondary struggled mightily as the front four stayed dominant. Anarumo likes to deploy a variety of coverage changes in the backend, but they didn’t work last year. At the conclusion of this season, the Bengals focused on a complete overhaul of the backend. The hope is that the new blood in Cincy can realign the defense and get it back into the orbit of the elite.

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» D-Line:

Trey Hendrickson (ED10) had a breakout season last year, accumulating 20.5 sacks. That makes it three double-digit sack seasons in the past four years. Alongside Hendrikson is Sam Hubbard (ED59), who battled injuries the entire year. Hendrickson is beginning to establish himself as an elite DE, and Hubbard will be looking to bounce back.

The third option in this group is Myles Murphy (ED102), who needs to earn more playing time. Hubbard will be entering his seventh season and has yet to eclipse the double-digit sack mark in the regular season. There is an opportunity for Murphy to earn more time on the field and show the Bengals he was worthy of a 1st-round pick.

Though the dominant iDL DJ Reader (iDL34) is gone, there is enough production left to continue solid play. Reader was a workhorse that kept the other D-linemen clean. To replace him, the Bengals brought in Sheldon Rankins (iDL25). The former Jet and Texan

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» Linebackers:

Germaine Pratt (LB15) was the number one ranked coverage LB last year in HAVOC. Pratt’s success through the air was not matched on the ground, and though he garnered a 20.8% Pressure Rate, he only accumulated two sacks.

The inconsistencies at every level of the Bengals’ defense were a catalyst for the staleness that descended on the defensive unit. Logan Wilson (LB 44) also struggled to find a consistent pass rush when blitzing but was solid in coverage and against the run.

Both LBs finished well above the league average in Average Depth of Tackle, meaning that when the LBs did make a tackle, it was usually for a solid gain. Wilson’s, in particular, was 5.2! The hope is that the inconsistency throughout the defense was more a product of the environment. For the defense to regain its high caliber, the middle links in the chain need to step up in play.

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» Secondary:

Cincinnati has completely rebuilt its backend. Out is CB53 Chidobe Awuzie (Titans) and S104 Nick Scott (Panthers), and in are two new Safeties in former Raven Geno Stone (S47) and back from the Panthers Vonn Bell (S128). Stone will immediately step in as the starter, while Bell will have to fight for a starting role.

Bell signed a three year contract with Carolina and was quickly cut this offseason. He will return to compete with Jordan Battle (S25) who had an excellent rookie campaign. If Bell starts, look for Battle to be used as a ‘big’ Ni or come in to finish games. Bell and Battle are essentially 1A and 1B on the depth chart.

At CB, Cam Taylor-Britt (CB41) was a lockdown CB in man coverage (#4 in Cover 1 HAVOC) but struggled in the zone (122nd in Cover 3 HAVOC). Inconsistency through the scheme was a major theme all year and at every level. Opposite Taylor-Britt will most likely be DJ Turner II (CB71). At Ni, Mike Hilton (Ni9) has become one of the best blitzing DBs in the NFL. He had 12 TFLs last year.

The wildcard in this group is ‘23 1st Round draft pick Dax Hill (S14), who played mostly Safety last year. Hill was excellent in Zone coverage and struggled a bit in man. With the addition of Stone and Bell, Hill didn’t necessarily have a home at Safety, even though he played really well. Look for him to push Turner for the starting role opposite Taylor-Britt.

The secondary for Cincinnati is diverse and reflects what a lot of teams are beginning to do: collect DBs and Edges. Good defenses want a three-man rotation at both CB and Safety and another (usually bigger) option at Ni. Anarumo has plenty of work to do with this group.

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» Cincinnati Bengals Resouces: