Storm Check
A best-practice Safety pressure is making a comeback against 12 and 21-personnel formations, which allows the defense to hide their coverage intentions.
Much has been said this year about the state of NFL offenses. Since 2018, we have seen a rise in total offensive production and overall quarterback play. In short, it was easy to score points.
However, the NFL has a natural ebb and flow, and defenses can adjust. Much of the game's rules are centered around scoring points. Watch any game on Sunday, and you will see several flags for illegal contact downfield. Defenders are not allowed to touch receivers once they cross a five-yard threshold.
The rule allows for receivers to run down the field relatively unabated. The shift away from man has little to do with these rules. Defenses reacted to the offensive shift to ‘spread’ attacks by playing even more Nickel than in previous decades. Plus, coverage defenders have gotten more skilled as they are not allowed to ‘beat’ up receivers or ‘patrol’ the middle of the field as they have in the past.
Nickel, with five coverage defenders on the field, is an easy tool for defensive coordinators to match athletes for athletes on the field. More offenses shifted to a pass-first mentality, making the Shanahan-McVay systems unique. They focused on the run game to open up large holes deeper down the field.
But in recent years, more NFL teams have shifted to 12 personnel (two TEs) and 21 personnel (TE/FB) to counter the use of lighter defenses. For the most part, the past five years have seen a third CB at the Nickel spot. Teams in ‘19 tried to combat these high-powered passing attacks with man to no avail.
Eventually, defenses started to shift to zone and play their Safeties from depth. Vic Fangio (Broncos) and Branden Staley (Rams) began using a two-high shell on most of their snaps. Until 2020, most defenses aligned in their coverage shell pre-snap and played the coverage typically shown. Fangio and Staley ushered in a ‘new’ type of defense that plays from a two-high shell on most snaps.
This season, the NFL average for coverage disguise is up to ~30%, a six-point increase from ‘23. Teams are shifting back to more man coverage and disguising coverages more often. The illusion of doubt is a tool that NFL defenses can use to combat offenses. At the top of the disguise list are two main schematic trees: Fangio-adjacent (LA, ARZ, PHI, ATL, & CAR) and the ‘new’ Ravens defensive coaches who worked under Mike Macdonald (BLT & MIA).
2024 has been an interesting year in the NFL. Overall, offensive numbers are down from the norm created in ‘17. Many pundits and fans were baffled at why the passing numbers were so low, but if you study the history of the NFL, the shift we are seeing this year is nothing more than a correction.
As more defensive coaches shifted to playing two-high zones with five coverage defenders on the field, offenses have slowly moved to heavier packages. The shift allows the offense to take advantage of defenses that want to play most of their snaps in Nickel. As more teams run the ball, defenses have had to shift back to older concepts.
A decade ago, the NFL Network’s Bucky Brooks wrote an article about the rise in Big Nickel usage in the NFL. Ten years later, you could write an identical article but change the names. This past offseason, we saw several teams stockpile multiple Safties to play Nickel, but they have a little more beef against the run game.
Teams like Detroit have built their offenses around being physical up front with a robust passing game that can attack downfield. That constant pull has forced defenses to rethink their structures. Entering Week 12, Nickel (4-3/3-4) usage has dipped under ~66%, somewhere it has been for several years. Teams across the league are running their Base packages on ~24% of their snaps.
With the shift of offenses back to heavier packages, defensive coordinators have had to dip back into their older playbooks for answers versus 12 and 21 pers. The NFL is not going full-on Neanderthal-ball as it did post-Tampa in the late ‘90s. The ‘Spread’ has won, and offenses are better equipped to attack space by using heavier packages.
That constant threat of the pass has forced defenses to still use split-field coverage. Last year, defenses ran closed-post coverages ~55% of their snaps; that number is now closing in on 60%. The main culprit in the shift has been the recommitment to the run game across the league.
Still, the defense is using what they have learned over the past several years and mixing in older concepts they already have. One of those is something similar to Dick LeBeau’s Strong Storm 2 Z (above) or in the Fangio language Storm Check. The scheme allows the defense to play run defense while disguising the coverage. The Cover 2-Roll concept in the backend allows defenses to counter the modern ‘Spread’ passing game tied into these heavier formations.
