The 'Big' Nickel is back.
The 'Big' Nickel is back.
The hybridization of the NFL is a result of football's evolution into a space sport. As the Safety position as a whole has been undervalued, the use of a 'Big Nickel' is back.
According to The Athletic, the Safety position has grown slowly in terms of pay increases. Overall, pay for Safeties is up 75%. Outside of QB, O-linemen and interior D-linemen have seen exponential increases in pay.
This offseason, high-profile older Safeties Justin Simmons (Broncos to Falcons), Micah Hyde (Bills to free agency), and Quandre Diggs (Seahawks to Titans) were all let go after the season. The Commanders (Cam Kurl to Rams), Giants (Xavier McKinney to Packers), and Ravens (Geno Stone to Bengals) also let high-profile Safeties walk in free agency.
Even with top-end talent hitting the market and the positional value of the Safety staying relatively stagnant, the role has become increasingly more important. Starting in 2020, teams began to give their Safeties the ‘green dot,’ which signals who communicates directly with the defensive coordinator during games, switching to a more coverage-first mentality when setting up the defense.
Though the position seemed primed to gain importance, the opposite has been true concerning pay. Even in the draft, Safeties tend to be devalued. Outside of kicker and Quarterback positions, where there are few high-caliber draftable prospects, the Safety position has been the least drafted position in football over the past decade (PFN).
The NFL’s move into the Spread Era contributed to its devaluation as teams shifted to drafting and paying the QB and WR positions. Top-end veterans may be hitting the streets, but teams around the league are taking advantage of the market's inefficiency in valuing the position. One group in particular, former Ravens assistants, had their teams cash in this offseason.
Seattle has arguably three potential starting-caliber Safeties: Rayshawn Jenkins (Jaguars), Julian Love (Giants), and K’vonn Wallace (Titans). Tennesse added veterans Quandre Diggs and Jamal Adams, both from the Seahawks, to pair with Armani Hooker. The Titans traded starter Elijah Molden to the Chargers, who already had Derwin James and Alohi Gilman. The Dolphins signed Jordan Poyer (Bills) and Marcus Maye (Saints) to pair with starter Jevon Holland. All three of those Safeties are projected to be top-30 players at the position by Field Vision.
Last season, the Ravens utilized Marcus Williams, Geno Stone, and Kyle Hamilton in their ‘Big’ Nickel package to get Hamilton near the box and aligned as an overhang defender. Hamilton excelled at the role and expanded the packages in which the Ravens' defense could play, only adding to the illusion of complexity for offensive coordinators. Unsurprisingly, when the Ravens' staff members moved on, they wanted to create the same backfield as they had in Baltimore and buck the trend of coverage-first defenders as the primary Ni.
Other teams are following suit this offseason as well. The Chiefs are shifting Ni Trent McDuffie to primary outside CB and playing Chammari Conner, a Safety, as the Ni. Cincinnati has four Safeties that will be in Field Vision’s projected top 64 Safeties for the ‘24 season: Vonn Bell (#43), Dax Hill (#46), Geno Stone (#51), and Jordan Battle (#61). The Packers are an interesting case because they will carry five diverse Safeties into the season, all with different tools and the ability to play the Slot.
In 2018, when offenses started scoring more points, defenses began using a pure coverage defender in the Nickel position. This change allowed them to have three cornerbacks on the field to cover the many wide receivers and even match up with tight ends by taking a larger player off the field. Pass rush is now a premium, which is why Edge rushers’ salaries are up over 100% (The Atheltic).
A natural move for offenses in the post-spread Era is to go ‘big’ and pick on the smaller Slot defenders on the field. As we see more 12 and 13 pers. (even 21p) across the NFL, teams are beginning to use 'big' Nickel packages again. The Ravens, Cardinals, Vikings, Lions, and Patriots are prime examples of teams that regularly used a Safety in the Nickel position.
Listening to HBO’s Hard Knocks on the New York Giants offseason, it was hard not to miss the phrase ‘every down player’ when GM Joe Schoen and defensive coordinator Shane Bowen talked. With a large chunk of capital going to the QB position, the defensive unit will be a natural place to wean money away from. Positions like CB and Safety are the first to go because they are positions of depth, and many teams draft or sign multiple players in the offseason.
Top-end talent is always paid, but the common theme in the modern era is to draft Edges and CBs, hoping one becomes a star and quickly moving on from others if they don’t pan out. The comparison of WR pay to CB pay is interesting. It is rare to find an All-Pro CB compared to an All-Pro WR, but the latter’s pay far exceeds the price of a CB. Above is a side-by-side comparison of the top-10 CB, Safety, and WR contracts in the NFL (via Over The Cap - 9/1/24).
‘Nickel’ is still the base defense in the NFL, and being able to play every down is critical in the cash-strapped side of the ball. Offenses now use ‘heavier’ packages to create mismatches. Even though they might be in 12 pers, they can efficiently run their 11 pers. plays. Rams’ Head Coach Sean McVay has talked about how the blocking acumen of Cooper Kupp and Puka Naku unlocks LA’s ability to run 12 pers. plays form 11 pers.
That kind of thinking can damage defenses that try to specialize in who is on the field. One way defenses can ensure they are sound against the run and pass, regardless of offensive personnel, is to have a hybrid Safety in the Slot or a ‘Big’ Ni. As illustrated this offseason, several teams moved to create depth at the Safety position, allowing them to play base Nickel with a CB and a Big NI with a Safety. Now, let’s look at the NFL's best ‘Big’ Nickel teams.
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The Ravens Crew
Kyle Hamilton started as a Safety in Baltimore's base defense. When the Ravens switched to sub-packages, Hamilton would play near the box, adding versatility to Baltimore's defense for a better matchup against NFL offenses. Safeties Geno Stone (Bengals) and Marcus Williams would play deep in Baltimore’s Big Ni package. The versatility of three Safeties allowed the Ravens’ defense to still play sub-packages against offenses that wanted to utilize multi-TE formations.
Sticking with the trend he started in Baltimore, newly appointed Seahawk head coach Mike Macdonald obtained three Safeties this offseason to give him backend versatility: Rayshawn Jenkins (Jaguars), Julian Love (Giants), and K'von Wallace (Titans). Each Safety can play near the box, and having a 'big' Ni allows Seattle to move CB Devon Witherspoon outside. The Seahawks are one CB away from being a dangerous defense, and a move to playing more 'Big' Ni might mitigate that issue.
Miami’s new DC, Anthony Weaver, was gifted with multiple Safeties when he arrived in South Beach. The Dolphins will have Jordon Poyer (Bills), Jevon Holland, Marcus Maye (Saints), and Elijah Campbell. Poyer had over 200 snaps at the Slot for Buffalo, and with Maye, Weaver can utilize Poyer in a Big Ni role similar to Hamilton in Baltimore.
Minnesota Vikings
In Minnesota, Josh Metellus was used as a missile in Brian Flores’s aggressive defense. The Vikings were in a bind with no true Slot CB on the roster and limited depth at CB. Utilizing three Safeties allowed Flores to stack the box without losing much in coverage.
Metellus could even be used as a Deep Safety, with the Vikings using their three Safety packages when highlighting five DBs across the backend. The Eagles game is an excellent example of this package. Until the untimely death of Khyree Jackson and the season-ending injury to Mekhi Blackmon, Flores was planning to have two Ni’s, with Metellus playing normal downs and Byron Murphy moving inside against lighter packages or on 3rd Downs. Recently, the Vikings signed veteran Stephon Gilmore (Cowboys) to the roster, so this might still be in play.
In the Vikings three-high package, Cameron Bynum was used as a quasi-Ni in Flores’ ‘Hot Quarters’ scheme. With four DBs playing a specialized Quarters concept, Bynum played the middle Safety and read the QB’s vision. When the Vikings wanted to play with eight near the box, he would typically play to the passing strength, with Metellus moved to the opposite side.
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals had two Safeties who could play near the box: Budda Baker and Jalen Thompson. Both defenders excelled in a 'Big' Ni role last season. Field Vision's Havoc ratings have Baker as the #4 Box Safety and the #1 Safety overall against the run.
Last year, Arizona had one of the more unique defenses in the NFL, utilizing a Penny Package (5-1) with a three-safety look in the back end. As a base, the Cardinals were a 3-4, but their sub-packages could morph into a traditional Ni (4-2-5) or their Penny Package. In Penny, the system could run the same as the 3-4, with Baker as the defacto second ILB.
New England Patriots
In New England, former Head Coach Bill Belichick used a four Safety rotation of Jabrill Peppers, Kyle Dugger, Jalen Mills (recently cut by the Giants), and Adrian Phillips (current free agent). Each Safety had a different skill set and could be used as a lever near the box or in coverage, depending on the matchup. With Mills and Phillips now gone, Head Coach Jared Mayo will likely use hybrid Marte Mapu as the third Safety.
New York Giants
Once the Titans picked up K’Von Wallace from the Cardinals off the waiver wire, they could move Safety Elijah Molden into the Slot more often. The duo of Wallace and Armani Hooker played deep. With Molden near the box, the Titans could kick their regular Slot, Roger McCreary, outside.
In New York, Shane Bowen looks to keep the trend of utilizing a Big Ni on standard downs at the Giants. When asked by GM Joe Schoen in HBO’s Hard Knocks series about how he would utilize hybrid LB Isaiah Simmons, he mentioned using him as a Slot defender on normal downs (1st/2nd). Simmons is excellent in zone coverage and fits perfectly in Bowen’s zone-centric system. Former DC Wink Martindale (Michigan) used Simmons as a Joker player on sub-packages.
Keeping Simmons at Ni allows the Giants to see if 3rd-round pick Dru Phillips (Kentucky) can play outside. Tyler Nubin showed flashes this offseason near the box and could be a factor as the third Safety. The Giants cut Jalen Mills, signaling this is a likely possibility. Plus, starting Safety Jason Pinnock is a top-10 Box Safety in Field Vision Havoc Ratings.
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Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs probably don’t come to mind as a Big Ni team, but Safety Justin Reid played the fourth most snaps in the Slot for a Safety. Reid is great in man coverage and is a top-20 Safety in both run and pass rush, according to Field Vision’s Havoc ratings. The ability to move Reid down gave the Chiefs the ability to move star Slot defender Trent McDuffie outside, giving Kansas City a formidable duo outside in McDuffie and L’Jarious Sneed (Titans).
During the offseason, the Chiefs traded Sneed to the Titans, signaling that McDuffie might find a prominent home outside. Though this might sound surprising given his prowess as a Slot defender, the Chiefs have another Safety that moonlights near the box in Chammari Conner. Reid and Conner will give Chiefs’ DC Steve Spagnuolo versatility in the backend. Last year, Conner excelled at man coverage (#25 Safety in Havoc), but will need to raise his level of play in order to hold the Slot position full time.
The Lions' Brian Branch is technically a Safety, but he established himself as one of the best Ni’s in the NFL as a rookie. This offseason, the Lions hinted that they may want to use him more as a Deep Safety. As the NFL leans into hybrid players, we are seeing more ‘all-11'-type defenses.
Branch can play both near the box and as a Deep Safety, which allows DC Aaron Glenn to keep his best eleven on the field. The young defender's ability near the box allows the Lions to play more snaps in their Ni package. Detroit ran Ni on 68% of its snaps and has two serviceable Safeties in Kerby Joseph and Ifeatu Melifonwu. Both Safeties are top-25 in coverage Havoc. That gives the Lions a formidable three-headed monster in the backend.
Washington Commanders
Dan Quinn loves Safeties. That was very apparent in his time in Dallas, as they played some of the second-lowest rates of base defense in the league behind the Bills. The Commanders added Jeremy Chinn (Panthers) to an already deep Safety room this offseason. Percy Butler is elite in man coverage for a Safety (#6 in Havoc) and fits Quinn’s man-heavy scheme well. Jeremy Reaves is in the same mold, too.
Chinn gives Quinn a Big Ni defender who can play near the box versus heavy personnel groups and a group of Safeties that allow him to still play man coverage. And, that’s only the Safety room.
The Commanders selected Ni-guru Mike Sainristil from Michigan in this year's draft. Although slight in frame, 5-10 185, he packs a punch and is in a similar mold as the Lions’ Brian Branch regarding play (though Branch is 6’ 205). At Ni, the Commanders also have Quan Martin, who excelled at Illinois in a Big Ni role alongside teammate Devon Witherspoon (Seahawks).
Washington has assembled a secondary that matches the personality of Quinn. There are enough players to match up with offenses across the NFL while allowing the Commanders to play with a sub-package almost full-time. If his time in Dallas was any indicator, look for Quinn to mix in Big Ni looks with his two new ILBs, Bobby Wagner (Seahawks) and Franki Luvu (Panthers).
Green Bay Packers
Jeff Hafley was hired from Boston College to fix the Green Bay defense. He runs a system similar to that of the 49ers, Robert Saleh (Jets), and DeMeco Ryans (Texans). The main difference is his blitz package. All three of those teams used their Safeties in the Slot. San Fransico’s Tashaun Gipson had the second most snaps by a Safety. Both Tony Adams (Jets) and Jordan Whitehead (Buccaneers) were used near the box in New York. Jimmie Ward and Jalen Pitre accumulated over 100 snaps in the Slot in Houston.
In the offseason, the Packers completely rebuilt their Safety room, bringing in Giants Xavier McKinney and drafting three Safeties. Georgia’s Javon Bullard (and McKinney) can play in the Slot. Oregon State Safety Kitan Oladapo is 6-2 216 and can easily morph into a Big Ni. With multiple options at the Safety position, the Packers might feature a Big Ni package.
LA Chargers
The Chargers’ Derwin James is one of the best Box Safeties in the NFL. LA brought in veteran Safety Tony Jefferson this offseason, but he has not played meaningful reps in almost two years (he officially retired last year). The growth of Alohi Gilman has allowed the Chargers to have flexibility in that position. The trade with Tennesse for Elijah Molden allows the Chargers to play Big Ni and move elite box defender Derwin James to a more advantageous position.
Houston Texans
Last year, Houston played with Desmond King at Ni, a coverage-first defender. This offseason, the Texans shifted Jalen Pitre, who cut his teeth at Baylor in the Ni down near the box. Pitre was electric at the college level when playing as a slot defender.
Pitre was ranked the 41st overall Safety in Field Visions ‘23 Safety Havoc Ratings but is projected to jump to 16th this season. He is a better player near the box, where he was ranked the #3 Box Safety. His pass rush as he moves full-time to Ni is one area that will increase his effectiveness. In his last year at Baylor, he accumulated 3.5 sacks and 17 (yes, 17) tackles for loss from the Ni.
This luxury came because the Texans drafted Georgia CB Kamari Lassiter (2nd-round) and USC Safety Callen Bullock. Both were good enough for the Texans to part ways with Desmond King and move Pitre primarily to the Ni. As a Baylor homer, I’m excited to see him back at his natural position.
Fun story… In ‘21 I text Baylor Defensive Coordinator (Safety Coach at the time) Matt Powledge, “Man, you guys blitz #8 (Pitre) a ton!” He promptly replied, “Have you seen #8?! He’s a freak!” Touche, and a reminder, players over plays. Pitre has been one of my favorite players for a long time.
Atlanta Falcons
Another team to watch in Big Nickel usage is the Falcons. Head Coach Raheem Morris has been willing to move guys around to get them into better positions. Jalen Ramsey was used as a Star in LA. With Justin Simmons now squarely planted in the starting lineup opposite Jesse Bates, the Falcons have one of the best Safety duos in the NFL. That leaves someone like Richie Grant as the third wheel.
Last year, Grand excelled near the box, finishing 12th in Field Vision’s Box Safety ratings. Dee Alford and Clark Phillips shared the role this preseason, but there is a possibility Grant could be used against 12 pers. to give the Falcons a better presence on early run downs.
The NFL is an ever-changing landscape with a constant cat-and-mouse game between the offense and defense. With a natural ebb-and-flow, there is predictability in how teams will react over time. The only difference is units and schemes are built off prior knowledge.
We are now entering the NFL's post-spread era. Teams understand how to create and constrain space. The explosion of the QB cap hit has also created an interesting side effect in team building: Specialization is no longer valued.
Players must be able to play every down, and defenses, in particular, need value added from their starters. The Patriots, Ravens, Lions, and Cardinals found this in their Safety rooms. In Baltimore, when the Ravens run Base, Hamilton can play as a Deep Safety and, in Nickel Packages, move into the Slot with another Safety coming on to play deep. We’ve even seen this play out at CB (Titans/Chiefs).
A trend heading into this season is the rise of the Big Ni. Ironically, it has been 10 years since the NFL signaled the use of Big Ni as a major trend. In August 2014, NFL.com’s Bucky Brooks wrote an article titled ‘Big nickel package emerging as NFL's hottest defensive trend.’
In that article, players like the Saints’ Kenny Vaccaro, the Chiefs’ Eric Berry, and Big Ni Hall of Famer Tyrann Mathieu, who played the position in Arizona, are all mentioned. Ten years later, the NFL is moving into a different kind of Spread, and defenses are dusting off the old Big Ni package. Time really is a flat circle.
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» We are in a golden era of Slot defenders as a whole in the NFL. I wrote about the ‘22 class and their contribution below:
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