Re-Examining Opponent Breakdowns

The Problem with Over-Reliance on Numbers and How to Approach Offensive Opponents Holistically.

There is an over-reliance on numbers or percentages when breaking down offensive opponents and developing coherent game plans on the defensive side of the ball. In most cases, defensive coordinators try to regress everything to the mean. What is the offense doing on any given down at this specific position on the field? That is such a narrow question fo…