Oregon’s Answer to the 12-Personnel Meta
Squares, Triangles, and the evolution of the modern Edge defender.
The NFL’s offensive meta in 2025 has firmly shifted toward heavier personnel, primarily 12- and 13-personnel. If you have been keeping up with the trends, you saw this new meta emerge over the past couple of seasons.
Out west, the best examples of this heavy package usage in the modern game are the LA Rams, San Francisco 49ers, and the Seattle Seahawks. All have built their offense around getting defenses in Base (4-3 or 3-4) and then attacking them through the air. With linebackers on the field and simplified coverages on the call sheet, the offense has a clear advantage.
The cat-and-mouse game here is one of personnel. Can the defense match up in a sub-package, and will the offense be willing to run the ball all the way down the field? If the defense feels more comfortable in Base and wants to load the box numbers, well, then it’s “bombs away” by the offense. The data backs this up.
In the NFL, Nickel usage has dropped by almost 4% (to ~60%), while Base usage has risen to over 25%. Last season, only one team used Base more than 40% of the time (Lions); this year, three currently do.
Split-field coverage at the NFL level is also on the rise, but not in the way that you think. Cover 3 is still the dominant scheme, but more teams in the league are finding ways to play four DBs back in “shell” coverage. The use of early down passing, especially under center play-action, has forced defenses to expand their call structures in Base defense and shift their coverage philosophies.
But as Base usage rises, the coverage philosophy has to change; it can’t stay simple. The meta defensively is to play a majority of defenses that look like a two-high shell. Defenses are responding to the rise in early-down passing and under-center play-action by developing their split-field capabilities. We are seeing a surge in “Tango” (Quarters pressures), and split-field looks behind heavier fronts.
Split-field coverages counter popular early-down crossing routes and play-action from under center by creating layers in the middle of the field and forcing the ball outside and deep on low-percentage throws. The longer the quarterback holds onto the ball, the more time for the rush to hit home and the linebackers to drop into coverage.
Teams like the Packers (link below) use base alignments and nine-man spacing Quarters (4-Lock/MEG) to maintain layers in the back end while keeping the box gapped out against the run. And, this isn’t just in the NFL.
Staying in the Pacific Northwest, the Oregon Ducks, in their fourth year under Dan Lanning, are finally ascending to elite status within the college ranks. Currently, the Ducks are closing in on a top-5 DFEI rating (BCFToys), which is an efficiency metric similar to FTN’s DVOA, a standard at the NFL level.
Lanning's tenure at Oregon has quickly established him as one of the best head coaches in the country. At Georgia, he helped Kirby Smart and current defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann architect some of the most dominant defenses in the SEC in this modern era. With the help of Tosh Lupoi, another Saban disciple, the Ducks’ defense has become the West’s dominant force.
The test for Oregon has been the transition from the Spread-centric Pac-12 to the Big 10—a conference that features heavier personnel, cold weather, and dominant Tight Ends. With that move, Lanning’s scheme had to evolve. To counter the 12-personnel-heavy offenses of the Midwest, Oregon had to develop a more robust Base defense without sacrificing coverage variability.
There's some irony here. In 2017, Don Brown at the Lone Star Clinic said that TEs were basically glorified Tackles in the Big 10. Rarely were any of them thrown to. I checked the stats, and he was spot on. My how things have shifted in less than ten years!
In the past, “Base defense” meant limited calls—usually Cover 3 or simple man-free. But Lanning and Lupoi come from the call-dense Saban system; limiting the menu isn’t an option. And, they aren’t just running Rip/Liz (Match Cover 3); this is Quarters team.
2025 might be the most diverse defense Lanning has ever assembled. To address the split-field coverage issue in Base, the defense has repurposed Saban standards such as Box, Mix, and Stump to align with their 3-4 structure.
Oregon isn’t reinventing the wheel; they're adapting it to their new reality.
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to MatchQuarters by Cody Alexander to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.