Northwestern hasn’t started a 4-1 season since 2020 under Head Coach Pat Fitzgerald. That year, the Wildcats finished 7-2 in a COVID-shortened season, won the Big 10’s Western Division, beat Auburn in the Citrus Bowl, and finished the season ranked #10 in the country (AP/Coaches). Current Head Coach David Braun has the Wildcats off to a fast start, and they won’t see a ranked opponent until Halloween, when they visit Oregon.
Could this be the makings of a special season?
They haven’t won ten games since 2017.
On paper, nothing about the Wildcats’ defense stands out. According to PFF, they ranked 44th in EPA/play in the Power 4 (68 total teams), 33rd against the run, and 53rd against the pass, all while posting a similarly neutral EPA (.000) heading into their latest win against Ball State.
Overall, the unit ranks a respectable 29th in DFEI (think NFL’s DVOA) and 33rd in Points Per Drive (PPD), and it will likely improve after this week’s win. But Northwestern does lead major college football in one category: Robber coverage.
Braun’s unit, led by Tim McGarigle, is scrappy and doesn’t make mistakes; they don’t even blitz (65th in Blitz Rate). These are hallmarks of a Wildcat defense.
The unit is a 4-2-5 defense that majors in Quarters (18th in the P4) and Cover 2 (13th). Against Indiana and Penn State, Robber (Bracket) has become an increasingly important coverage. In both games, the Wildcats ran it seven times (19 overall), and their EPA/play when running it is an astounding -.575, with a 13% success rate.
21% Completion Rate
41 Total Yards and 1 TD (vs. PSU)
4 Total Forced Incompletions (FINC)
Robber has become Northwestern’s change-up to their standard looks on middle-yardage downs. Instead of blitzing to force the issue or spinning into different coverages, McGarigle’s defense doubles down on man coverage and uses its Safeties as vision players in the seams. The system suffocates the middle of the field, builds a maxed-out box, and forces the ball into low-percentage sideline passes.
The term “Robber” has different meanings depending on the context. More recently, the term describes a “vision” Safety in a Cover 1 concept, typically dropping away from the Nickel. In older concepts, Robber is used in Quarters, with the Safety playing vision and “robbing” the Curl of #1. Northwestern has married both to create a Bracket-like coverage outside the Red Zone.
Against Penn State, the Wildcats used their Robber coverage to defend their Spread formations, mostly on 2nd & Long or 3rd Downs. The coverage is man across the board, with both the Hash Safeties tilted and watching the Quarterback. All defenders align outside the receiver and try to funnel routes toward the Safeties.
Unlike its sister coverage, Bracket, which is a man-match concept, Northwestern’s Robber coverage doesn’t require an exchange of responsibilities. For example, in Bracket, if the Slot breaks inside, the Safety nails down on the route, allowing the Nickel to become a zone defender.
Northwestern wants to compress space near the sticks and force offenses into low-percentage throws. The Robber concept is not typically a 1st Down call, but a mid-range scheme for when the Wildcats want to tighten their grip on the sticks. Against Indiana and Penn State, the coverage forced Northwestern to either play a longer 3rd down or punt.
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