The New York Jets 'Stubbie' Tape vs. the Buffalo Bills.
The New York Jets 'Stubbie' Tape vs. the Buffalo Bills.
Analyzing the New York Jets' defense and their use of Stubbie Coverage within their Quarters scheme.
When you mention the Jets, most people instantly think of Aaron Rodgers. Why would they not? The infamous QB has dominated the headlines in regard to the Jets since choosing to move to New York this past off-season. In his first game against the Bills, he tore his Achilles—and the hopes and dreams of Jets fans.
Overshadowed by their defunct offense, the New York defense has quickly become one of the best in the NFL under defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich and the guidance of Head Coach Robert Saleh. The Jets have one of the best interior defensive lines anchored by Quinnen Willians (#95) and Quinten Jefferson (#70). Interior pressure has always been a source of disdain for QBs and run games. Last year, the Jets had the lowest Pass Blitz Rate (PBR) in the league yet the fourth-highest pressure rate.
According to RBSDM, the Jets finished third in the NFL in total EPA (-.110) and second in Success Rate at 37.8%. Only the Ravens and Browns had consistently better defenses. When an elite pass rush (especially inside) is paired with a quality secondary, you have the makings of an elite defense.
For two years in a row, the Jets have been one of the NFL’s leaders in Quarters coverage usage. Last year, New York led the league in its use at ~26% of its snaps (In reality, it was much higher). This year, only the Cardinals ran a higher amount. Since ‘18, Robert Saleh has made a concerted shift from Cover 3 to Quarters, and the trend is not going away.
The rise of CB DJ Reed (#4) opposite star wunderkind CB Sauce Gardner (#1) has been a coup for the Jets. Including Ni Micheal Carter II (#30), all three of New York’s primary coverage DBs have a completion percentage of under 60% (PFF). Quarters, which plays like man coverage with ‘rules’ for the CBs, is boosted when a defense has man CBs outside and a Ni who can carry a Slot WR.
The mix of Quarters and Cover 1 is a trend within teams that do not diversify their coverages or use a multitude of simulated pressures. In fact, the Jets sit 29th in Sim% at 3.6%. New York, like San Fransisco and Houston (same tree), has a relatively static defensive scheme. The Jets even sat at the bottom of the league in MOF Disguise rates (post-snap coverage movement) at 16.4%. What a QB saw pre-snap, was generally what he was going to get post-snap.
Offenses like the Bills, Chargers, and Chiefs saw a high volume of Quarters from the Jets (above). The Eagles most likely saw more Quarters because of the ‘six-back offense’ in place there. Quarters allows you to have a QB player on either side of the box, whereas MOFC coverages house the QB player in the middle of the field and at depth, which can spell disaster in the run game.
Against the Bills, Ulbrich decided to lean heavily into split-field coverages, running them ~48% of their snaps, with a Cover 1 rate of 26.2%. Buffalo’s QB, Josh Allen, can run, and the Bills will utilize designed QB runs to create ‘plus’ advantages in the run game. Running So, Quarters or Cover 6 (QQH) against the Bills makes sense.
But how does that system react when Buffalo is aligned in Trips? The Bills run the 3rd highest rate of 3x1 and/or Empty in the NFL. When you play Buffalo, you need to have a way to expand your Quarters coverage to defend three WRs to a side. Since the Jets don’t run much Cover 2, Tampa is out of the question. Ulbrich, with man CBs outside and a solid man Ni in Carter, turned to a staple Trips coverage at the lower levels and a ‘go-to’ tool for Quarters teams: Stubbie.
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