The NFL Playoffs are finally upon us.
So settle in and let the ride begin.
Here are my thoughts on the Wildcard Weekend matchups.
When: Sat. 3:30 pm CST - FOX
Where: Levi’s Stadium - Santa Clara, CA
What do the Nerds say about San Fransisco: The 49ers are coming in with the #1 overall defensive DVOA in the NFL. The offense is close to being elite regarding DVOA, sitting at #6 (Football Outsiders). In terms of EPA, the 49ers’ offense ranks 4th overall and in passing. Though the HC Kyle Shanahan is known for his running prowess, the ‘9ers come in at 11th in rush EPA. Defensively, San Fransisco has the #1 overall EPA defense in the league (-.112) and the #2 rush and passing EPAs (RBSDM).
What do the Nerds say about Seattle: The Seahawks’ offense comes in at 10th overall in total DVOA even though their offense is ranked 14th, and defensively, they are ranked 21st. Seattle isn’t an EPA darling, either. The Hawks’ offense comes in at 13th overall, 11th in passing, and 21st in rushing. Defensively, Seattle has one of the worst overall EPAs, coming in at 26th (same as their rushing). The defense's strength can be found in the secondary, where the Seahawks rank 19th in pass/EPA.
ESPN’s Matchup Predictor: ‘9ers with a 77.4% win probability.
Key Matchup: Brock Purdy vs. the Seattle defense. The Seahawks do not have a great defensive unit, but Purdy is a rookie playing his first NFL Playoff game. All the former “Mr. Irrelevant” has done is win games and keep the 49ers’ offense out of trouble. Only six rookie QBs have ever won a playoff game, with Russell Wilson being the last to do it in ‘12. Purdy must keep the ball in the 49ers’ hands and let his weapons do the work.
Final Prediction: I genuinely think the 49ers roll. San Fransisco hasn’t lost a game since their late October beat down at the hands of the Chiefs. Since then, this has arguably been the best team in the NFL. No rookie QB has ever won a Super Bowl, but this is Wildcard Weekend. Vegas has the ‘9ers as -9 favorites with an O/U of 42 points. The 49ers win 27-14.
When: Sat. 7:15 pm - NBC
Where: TIAA Bank Field - Jacksonville, FL
What do the Nerds say about Jacksonville: The Jags have one of the hottest offenses heading into the playoffs. However, DVOA has their offensive unit slated at 9th overall, with their defense lagging at 26th. Combined, that makes the Jaguars the 13th most efficient team. Regarding EPA, the offense is 8th overall with the 6th-best passing attack. The running game is a real concern, as it comes in at 24th. Defensively Jacksonville is middle of the road in terms of EPA, sitting at 12th overall, 17th against the pass, and 6th against the run.
What do the Nerds say about Los Angeles: The Chargers are the 18th-best team according to DVOA, with the 19th-best offense and the 16th-best defense. EPA doesn’t show much improvement either. Offensively, LAC comes in at 16th overall, dead center on the chart. Defensively there was a lot of hype heading into the season, but the Chargers sit at a lackluster 19th overall and are only in the top 10 (10th, to be exact) in passing EPA. In his second year, Staley still hasn’t figured out how to stop the run, slated 29th overall in run/EPA.
ESPN’s Matchup Predictor: Jacksonville has a 60.8% chance of winning.
Key Matchup: Travis Etienne vs. the Chargers run defense. The second-year back has over 1,000 yards rushing on the season, but he has been inconsistent at best. Through the Jags’ five-game win streak to finish the year, Etienne has three games of 80+ yards rushing, bookended with poor performances against the Titans. The Chargers enter the playoffs with one of the worst run defenses in the league. Jacksonville will need their premiere RB to create some momentum, as LA has one of the better secondaries in the NFL.
Final Prediction: Does Herbert finally have his “elite” moment, or will Trevor snuff out his flame? Vegas has the Chargers -1.5 favorites in the game, with the O/U set at 47.5. I like the Jaguars in this game as they have the better momentum heading into Round 1. Look for Lawrence to have a decent game that will lean on the run to keep him clean. Jags win 24-21.