Weekly Data Download: Week 1
Weekly Data Download: Week 1
MatchQuarters weekly look at the data from the NFL's previous week.
Welcome to your weekly source for NFL data and discussion surrounding the NFL’s defensive ecosystem. This is where film analysis and data meet…
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Coverage Usage
Cover 0: Vic Fangio utilized Cover 0 at a very high rate against the Packers’ Jordan Love. Last year, Field Vision had Love as the #3 QB against the blitz, so it was interesting to see Fangio lean into Cover 0. Other than Jalen Reed, most WRs were held in check. The Cardinals’ high Cover 0 number is likely due to them running match Quarters, which can appear to be Cover 0 against certain route combinations. One team not on here is the Vikings, who led the league in this coverage last year.
Cover 1: Jaguars DC Shane Neilsen comes from the Saints coaching tree, which favors Cover 1. Surprisingly, he ran the coverage over 50% of the time against the Dolphins. Jacksonville could keep the Dolphins' running game in check, but Hill and Waddle exceeded the century mark. Typically, the Browns were the leaders in this category last year. Against the Cowboys, they decided to play more Cover 3. The usual crowd is still here: Saints, Patriots, Lions, & Browns, with the Ravens running a high volume of Cover 1 against the Chiefs.
Cover 2: The Patriots paired their Cover 1 against the Bengals with Cover 2, a typical defensive plan when running a high volume of men. The Vikings, who ran the most Cover 2 last year, are also high on this list. If you don’t run Cover 2, you probably run Quarters or Cover 6. It’s more of a schematic preference than anything.
Cover 3: The ‘king’ of coverages was dominated by the usual teams: Panthers (Evero), Falcons (Morris), Steelers (Austin), and Colts (Bradley). The main difference is how they get to it. The Falcons and Panthers like to disguise from a two-high shell, while the Steelers and Colts play with a more static shell. Against the Chargers, the Raiders played from a single-high shell, running Cover 3 ~50% of the time and pairing it with Cover 2 (~18%). It is rare in the NFL to see teams abandon Cover 3, but two teams did so this week: the Jaguars (vs. Dolphins) and the Texans (vs. Colts).
Quarters: The Texans and Vikings ran the most Quarters in Week 1. Houston had to contend with the Colts’ Anthony Richardson, a viable runner on designed carries with a rocket for an arm (he had the third-longest throw Next Gen Stats had ever recorded). Quarters provides relief on early downs versus QB runs and caps verticals versus deep throws. There are a couple of surprises here to keep an eye on: the Bears (~20%) and the Colts (~17%), two teams that have not run Quarters at meaningful volumes, might be adding it to the rotation.
Cover 6: This category has more of a nuanced usage. There are only a few teams that typically run this coverage, and most use it in a targeted design, moving the Cover 2 side to create a zone double on top WRs. The two trees that lean into this concept are the Ravens 2.0 crew and Fangio-adjacent coaches. So it is not surprising that the Chargers (Minter), Ravens (Orr), Falcons (Morris), and Rams (Shula) are near the top of the list. Zimmer and his Cowboys’ defense are also there, along with the Steelers, which is surprising.
» Targeted Coverage Resources:
2-Man: I usually don’t carry this coverage weekly because no one uses it. The league average is 1.1% after Week 1. But the Jaguars called it on over 12% of their calls against the Dolphins’ Tua. The 49ers used it against Rodgers, and surprisingly, the Buccaneers utilized it against the very mobile Jaden Daniels.
Blitz & Stunt Rates
Last year, the Vikings made waves early in the year with their blitz-centric style. After Week 1, the Broncos were the leaders as they attempted to rattle the Seahawks’ Geno Smith. Minnesota is still high (38.6%), but no where near the top spot. Tampa and Todd Bowles are usually near the top, and Anthony Weaver in Miami rounds out the top three.
This is one of my favorite charts to examine: how often a team blitzes versus how much pressure it generates. In the lower right are teams that don’t blitz but create high amounts of pressure. Typically, these teams have elite defensive lines. Last year, the Ravens got a ton of production from their D-line without a high-end Edge rusher. It appears Mike Macdonald coming to Seattle (along with the Cowboy’s Aden Durde) has boosted that D-line group.
In the upper right hand box, are teams that blitzed at volume and had a high amount of pressure. Finnaly, the Vikings are on the right side of the line. Last year, they had a tremendously high blitz rate, yet they got no pressure on the QB.
One sign of panic should be the Jaguars, who are supposed to have a talented D-line but generated the second-lowest amount of pressure. Also, it is interesting to see the Browns, Texans, and 49ers near the bottom. None of those teams blitz often, so it is crucial they create pressure with their front.
Middle of the Field (MOF) Disguise
Shell disguise is a highly debated topic, but not every team uses it. Last year, a disguise was used on 25% of defensive snaps. Similar to Cover 6, only a few teams really lean into its usage, and they are typically the Fangio adjacent cerw. Unsurprisingly, the Eagles (Fangio) and Falcons (Morris) lead the list of disguises. The Panthers usually lead this category but played less disguise than they typically do.
On the other hand, some coaches don’t want to show their cards. The Texans against the Colts ran 91% of their calls from a static shell. The Browns (Schwarts) and Cowboys (Zimmer), who have old-hat coaches, also didn’t utilize disguise. One interesting find is the Chiefs, who have disguise-guru Steve Spagnuolo as their DC and who ran static coverages on 82.5% of their snaps. It was probably to ensure they were in the right place in case Lamar took off, which he did for over 100 yards.
The last tab explains coverage shell choice: closed-post or split-field. The Browns are clearly still leaning toward their closed-post dominant style. They are countered by the Vikings, who ran split-field coverages ~84% of the time against the Giants. Both leaders by about 10% in both categories.
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EPA & Success Rates
EPA (Expected Points Added) is always a great way to look at raw success for defense. Above is a chart that compares rushing and passing EPA. Doing a chart this way gives you tiers of success for defense. The two worst, the Commanders and Cardinals, are clearly at the tail, while the Chargers and Saints are clear winners of Week 1.
Last year, the Bears finished the season on a hot streak and appeared to be off to a great start in 2024. Other notables are the Packers and Ravens towards the back half. There was a lot of buzz around Green Bay’s new-look defense and significant questions for the new DC in Baltimore. Week 1 should have the fan base still looking for that promised success.
I took the chart above and cut the different EPAs. Dropbacks are non-screen and play-action passes. Success Rate: how often does the offense get a positive EPA and divide it by the number of players? For defense, you want a low success rate. Dallas's 25% success rate is excellent, and Seattle (who played rookie Bo Nix) was right behind. Finally, Kansas City still struggles versus the run.
Personnel Usage
News flash: The NFL is still a Nickel league, with teams utilizing the package on two-thirds of their players. Base (4-3/3-4) was used on almost a quarter of plays. The chart above looks at how teams function within those packages. The way to use this chart is to see how teams utilize their roster. Some teams carry multiple sub-packages within the main package.
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» Make sure to follow along every Wednesday for the Data Download. Link to last week’s article below:
FAQs
Where does your data come from? The majority of the data is via PFF and cleaned through Field Vision. The EPA chart and data come from RBSDM.com.
What is R & P? Run & Pass
What is Sim? Simulated pressure, or a blitz that shows 5+ but only rushes 4.
Where is Cover 8 (HQQ) located in the data? Cover 6
What is a stunt? Line movement
What is a blitz? Any play with an off-ball player attacking the line of scrimmage
» If you have any other questions, please leave them in the comments.
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© 2024 MatchQuarters | Cody Alexander | All rights reserved.
Great work here Cody. Nice to have this all in one place.
This is great stuff. I look forward to Wednesday!