Weekly Data Download: Preseason
Weekly Data Download: Preseason
We look at the coverage and pressure data at the conclusion of this year's NFL Preseason.
I plan to examine the NFL’s data from the previous week of the season. We can see how defenses played this past month with the preseason completed and the season only a week away. I plan to keep it simple, looking at coverage and pressure rates. Let’s start with the FAQ.
What is R & P? Run & Pass
What is Sim? Simulated pressure, or a blitz that shows 5+ but only rushes 4.
Where is Cover 8 (HQQ) located in the data? Cover 6
What is a stunt? Line movement
What is a blitz? Any play with an off-ball player attacking the line of scrimmage
If you have any other questions, feel free to leave them in the comments.
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Before we begin, take coverage data with a grain of salt. Cover 3 is overwhelmingly the base coverage in the NFL, so rates tend to be higher in the preseason as coaches try to implement their defenses and become proficient at running their base defenses. Still, you can pull some interesting takeaways from the preseason.
Finally, preseason coordinators call plays and do not necessarily game-plan for their opponent. With only three preseason games, coaches and management try to put players in situations. Yes, teams want to win games in the preseason, but player analysis is much more critical as they have to go from 90 to 53 players immediately after the preseason concludes.
Last year’s Lions team is an excellent example of this. Aaron Glenn ran almost nothing but Cover 3, then ran 50% Quarters against the Chiefs in Week 1. Again, these numbers indicate a team’s base defense, not what they will necessarily run during the season. The trend is still towards split-field coverage over the past five years. Below are last season’s deviations.
Cover 0: The Dolphins are an interesting case, as they ran Cover 0 at volume in the preseason. Couple that with their 59% five-man pressure usage when running the coverage, and you are looking at a team working on their ‘Quarters’ pressures. They also utilized six-man pressures with Cover 0 41% of those snaps (x17). The Broncos (Vance Joseph) and Eagles (Vic Fangio) came in second and third. Last year, Denver didn’t even use Cover 0 in the preseason.
Cover 1: The Lions went out and got CBs Carlton Davis (Buccaneers) and Terrion Arnold (Bama) and signed the Bengals DJ Reader this offseason. That all points to Aaron Glenn wanting to run Cover 1. That is typically his base, but he flipped the script last year and started with more Quarters. As the season went along, he shifted back to his base. The Browns leaned into Cover 1 early this year (led the league last year), and so did the 49ers this preseason.
Cover 3: The primary coverage in the NFL still holds sway, even in the preseason, as teams work on schemes. The usual suspects are leading the NFL: Bears (Eberflus), Colts (Bradley), and Panthers (Evero). Each system is unique, but these teams want to run Cover 3 at volume. Carolina will do it from a two-high shell, while the other two run it from static looks. The Packers are also here, which is interesting, given DC Jeff Hafley’s background. He stems from the same system as the 49ers, Texans, and Jets, which utilizes Cover 1 and Quarters. At Boston College, he was primarily a Cover 1 DC.
Cover 2: Ryan Neilsen is already showing his cards in Jacksonville. He comes from the Dennis Allen (Saints) tree and wants to run Cover 1 at volume and pair it with Cover 2 as a change-up. It appears the Patriots are on this trend as well. The only other team over 20% is the Vikings, who led the league in Cover 2 last year, mainly utilizing non-traditional Tampa 2’s and Drop-8 coverage. Eberflus (Bears) and his Tampa 2 background also show up here.
Quarters: The NFL's coverage has grown over the past five years, and usage is up almost a percent from last preseason. The league's current trend is to pair Quarters with Cover 1 instead of the Cover 2 (trap) we usually see. Looking at the top-five in usage this offseason, that tracks. The Jets, Texans, and 49ers have been doing this since ‘19. Interestingly, the Packers, who higher Jeff Hafley (Boston College) this offseason, are not aligned with their sister schemes. I’d take this as an example of Hafley not wanting people to see his true scheme while also breaking in many new faces in the backend.
Cover 6/8: ‘Targeted coverage’ has become very popular in the NFL, but it is only used at volume in the Fangio-adjacent and Ravens 2.0 (Macdonald) schemes. The Titans, Falcons, Panthers, Rams, Ravens, Eagles, and Chargers are all at the top of Cover 6 usage. The Jets are an outlier, but their base scheme is truly Quarters-based, so it makes sense that they are featured here.
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The term ‘blitz’ became important last year as the Vikings hurdled defender after defender at opponents early in the season. When asked about his scheme early in the season, Brian Flores responded, ‘How do you define a blitz?’
He was facetious, but he was trying to make a point. If a defense has five first-level defenders on the line of scrimmage (LOS) and all five rush, that isn’t a ‘blitz.’ For analysis purposes, many define a pressure as five or more defenders engaged in the rush.
Above, the Buccaneers and Steelers, who play base defense more than anyone else in the NFL, are very high on the Blitz Rate list. Pittsburgh is high because they base from a 3-4 and chose to engage their first-level defenders most of the time (Dog Rush). Todd Bowles is one of the best blitzing DCs in the NFL and is more varied in his blitz approach than the Steelers’ Teryl Austin.
Pass blitzing is when a defense blitzes while the offense passes the ball. The Steelers and Buccaneers are still high on the list. Interestingly, Fangio in Philly has been utilizing pressure at a high rate, with high Cover 0 usage and a higher-than-normal Blitz Rate. Last year in Miami, his Pass Blitz Rate was 31%.
Simulated pressures (show 5+ but only rush four) have become a popular term around football, but the NFL has consistently stayed a five-man pressure league. Still, several teams utilize the scheme. Fangio and the Eagles come in at #1, and surprisingly, the Packers are slotted at high as well. Hafley was a big-time five-man pressure guy at BC. The Macdonald crew is here, too (Ravens/Seahawks), as well as the Bills.
Finally, stunts can be dangerous in the NFL. One mistake and a RB can seam a defense. That is why only a few teams lean into their usage. Last year, the Packers and Cowboys led the league. When looking at the preseason, the Seahawks have taken over the top spot. Baltimore, under Macdonald, was a top-10 defense in stunt usage, but nowhere near this rate. This is DC Aden Durde’s influence on the scheme. He was with the Cowboys last season.
» Make sure to follow along every Tuesday for the Data Download. Next week, we will look at coverage disguise and other metrics heading into Week 1.
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