Weekly Data Download: 2023 Review
Weekly Data Download: 2023 Review
MatchQuarters weekly look at the data from the NFL's previous week.
Welcome to your weekly source for NFL data and discussion surrounding the NFL’s defensive ecosystem. This is where film analysis and data meet…
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Coverage Usage
It’s fascinating to see how coverages are broken down by down and distance. Without slicing it up, the overall coverage picture can only give a broad view of what a defense actually does. When separated by down, clear patterns and tendencies emerge.
Overall, Cover 1 usage grew as the downs went on, which is typical. NFL defenses compress the field as the ball gets closer to the down marker. The best way to do that is to run man coverage.
Cover 2 was mainly used on 2nd and 3rd Downs, which makes sense, given these are passing downs in the NFL. The big trend here has been the use of disguises, which we will discuss later.
Cover 3, which is overwhelmingly the NFL's coverage of choice, shrunk during 2nd and 3rd Downs. Similar to Cover 2 (Tampa), some teams are trying to design ways to hide their intentions by playing from a two-high shell.
Quarters and Cover 6 stayed relatively stable, with particular teams utilizing them more than others. These coverages tend to be very scheme relient—you either run them or you don’t.
Cleveland, the #1 Cover 1 usage team in the NFL last year, was tops on 1st and 2nd Downs and utilized Cover 2 over other zones on third. Their coverage ‘map’ is an illistration of best-practice philosophy. Cover 1 can be manipulated by specific routes (man-beaters), so switching to a ‘hard’ zone like Cover 2 as a change-up is a great way to counter man-beater passing concepts on passing downs.
The Vikings, tops among Cover 2 usage in ‘23, utilized the coverage mostly on 2nd and 3rd. On 3rd Down, it wasn’t even close (40%). The next closest was the Steelers, almost 16 percentage points lower. These were mainly non-traditional Tampas.
Cover 3 is king in the NFL, but no one runs it more than the Colts and the Panthers, who never dipped below 50% usage on any given down. Indianapolis’ Gus Bradley is famous for his static defenses that feature a four-down front and Cover 3. Evero in Carolina stems from the Raheem Morris branch of the Fangio tree, which means he runs most of his coverages from a two-high shell.
Only the Cardinals and Jets used Quarters at a high rate on early downs, but the latter switched to Cover 1 on 3rd. The use of ‘targeted’ coverages in the Cover 6 familiar stems from teams incorporating more Fangio-adjacent schemes. Quarters, as a whole, has seen a 5% increase in the last five years, as the chart below illustrates.
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» Last year’s overall rates and how they differed from preseason to regular season are illustrated below:
Blitz Rate vs. Pressure Rate
I love this chart from PFF, which illustrates Blitz Rates, how often you send five or more versus Pressure Rates, and how often you affect the quarterback. Surprisingly, the Cowboys (Micah Parsons) and the Browns (Myles Garrett) are at the top of the list. Dolphins fans might be surprised to see they rounded out the top three, with the Jets and Lions right behind them.
High blitz rates on passing downs don’t always generate pressure. Only the Steelers find themselves above the average Blitz Rate and on the positive side of the Pressure Rate.
The Vikings, Giants, and Buccaneers tied to blitz their way to pressure, but none could find a solid pass rush. For Minnesota, that was a major frustration all year as defensive coordinator Brian Flores tried to manufacture pressure. No wonder they went out and got Jonathan Greenard (Texans), Andrew Van Ginkel (Dolphins), and Dallas Turner (1st-Round/Alabama) to help with that issue.
There is no right or wrong way to approach blitzing or creating pressure. This chart illustrates talent differential rather than schematic efficiency.
Middle of the Field (MOF) Disguise
One hot topic since the 2020 season has been middle-of-the-field disguise rates around the league. In reality, only about 25% of NFL plays have some disguise.
Only certain schematic trees do it more than others. For instance, only four teams used disguise more than 40% of the time during the preseason, indicating this is a base way for them to play defense: Panthers (61.7%), Rams (55%), Vikings (44%), and Eagles (42.1%). Three of those teams are Fangio schemes!
Interestingly, Dallas and Mike Zimmer had the lowest no-disguised rates by far, at 93%, but multiple teams were pushing 85% or above: the Browns (88%), Colts (85.6%), and Texans (86.7%). Most teams are in the 60% to 70% range, which is average for the league.
I wanted to break this down further, so I looked back at disguise rates by coverage from last season. Looking at it this way illustrates how teams that don’t use disguise lean into it for certain coverages.
The best example of this was Dan Quinn and the Cowboys, who had the lowest overall disguise rate but were fourth in disguising Cover 2. Pairing Cover 1 with non-traditional Tampas is quickly becoming a best practice, especially on passing downs.
One coverage that rarely got disguised was Cover 6, with by far the lowest rate at 8.4%. Only the Buccaneers, Giants, and Vikings attempted to disguise it over 20%.
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Offense vs. Coverage
As much as I like looking at coverage rates, I can also stare at the inverse chart forever. I have always been intrigued by how teams decide to attack offenses by coverage. Some of this concerns who you play, but these rates even out over time.
Cover 0: The average Cover 0 rate in the NFL is ~4%. The Eagles saw it one out of every ten plays! That is a pretty impressive stat. Teams felt the offense in Philly could be pressured with little to no Hot Routes built in. Plus, the static vertical passing game lent itself to pressure.
Cover 1: If you see a lot of man coverage, it usually indicates a talent issue. That appears to ring true here, with the Patriots, Commanders, Panthers, and Colts all above 25% coverage usage.
Cover 2: No surprise, the Dolphins are tops in this category. Cover 2 provides an ‘even’ setup against motion and two ‘hard’ CBs for the run game. The deep safeties can cap verticals as well. But, the other two might surprise: Broncos and Steelers. Both offenses have a dominant outside WR.
Cover 3: Atlanta had a strong run game and limited vertical outside passing. What do you get when you have that as a base offense? Cover 3.
Quarters: Cowboys, Chiefs, Browns, Seahawks, and Eagles all saw the most Quarters coverage.
Cover 6: The Buccaneers saw the most Cover 6. I wonder if this has to do with Mike Evans getting the Cover 2 (zone double side), with the rest of the unit playing Quarters.
» Offensive ‘reviews’ from the past season:
Personnel Usage
Finally, let’s look at personnel usage across the league after last season. NFL is by far a Nickel defense league, but there is more variety than just a 4-2-5. For context, PFF counts Edges in a 3-4 as LBs. So, Penny (5-1) is a 3-3-5.
Base Defense: The Buccaneers and Steelers ran over a third of their snaps from Base.
Nickel Defense: The Steelers and Chiefs were the only teams under 55% usage.
Dime Defense: Six defenses had over 20% usage: the Chiefs, Cowboys, Patriots, Saints, Steelers, and Titans.
With more offenses shifting to 12 personnel, I’m excited to see how these change over time or if they stay the same, using three Safety packages (Big Ni & Di).
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» Make sure to follow along every Wednesday for the Data Download. Last week’s article below:
FAQs
What is R & P? Run & Pass
What is Sim? Simulated pressure, or a blitz that shows 5+ but only rushes 4.
Where is Cover 8 (HQQ) located in the data? Cover 6
What is a stunt? Line movement
What is a blitz? Any play with an off-ball player attacking the line of scrimmage
» If you have any other questions, please leave them in the comments.
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As a fellow data nerd, I have to say thank you for making my world a brighter place with many interesting charts to study and compare 🙏 😝