The Packers Xavier McKinney is making Jeff Hafley's defense work
There is a new top centerfield Safety in the NFL, and he resides in Green Bay.
The NFC North has quickly become one of the most competitive decisions in the NFL. Minnesota has sprung out to a 5-0 record, which no one saw coming. The catalyst for the success in Minneapolis has been the resurrection of defunct first-round quarterback Sam Darnold and the Vikings' scouting department, which subsequently hit on every one of their free-agent signings.
The Vikings arguably have the best free agent addition from this past offseason, Andrew Van Ginkiel, who has three sacks and two interceptions for TDs through five games. The hybrid Edge has allowed defensive coordinator Brian Flores to ‘unlock’ his defense by utilizing AVG’s unique skillsets. But another team in the division has a solid case for supplanting AVG from the top spot.
Matt LaFleur fired the embattled Joe Barry after the ‘23 season. The Packers’ young offense was improving, but the defense was inconsistent, underperforming, and anchoring the franchise’s growth. LaFleur comes from the McVay/Shanahan tree and initially went with Barry, who had worked under Brandon Staley (former Chargers Head Coach) in LA. With Barry gone, LaFleur pivoted back to a more Shanahan-esque defensive style in Boston College’s Jeff Hafley.
In Boston, Hafley ran a majority Cover 1 and minimal split-field coverages. Projecting what he would run was difficult because his situation as the head coach at Boston College would be much different than in Green Bay. Most pundits, including myself, figured he would carry a more aggressive style of play than his counterparts in New York (Ulbrich), Houston (Ryans), and Sorensen (San Fransisco).
Through five weeks, Hafley’s coverage usage is almost identical to that of his counterparts outside Cover 2 (Tampa) and Cover 6. The other members of this tree prefer to run Quarters over the other split-field concepts. Under new Head Coach Jeff Ulbrich, only the Jets run Cover 6 at the same rate.
Hafley prefers Cover 3 and a combination of Cover 6 and Quarters on first down because it allows him to hide intentions in the back end. Weak rotation Cover 3 can be easy to run from a two-high shell. The Packers run coverage disguised above the league norm on about a third of their snaps. But Hafley isn’t the pick-up that is most important to the Packers’ defense.
Under former defensive coordinator Wink Martindale, Safety Xavier McKinney aligned almost anywhere. His ‘box’ usage rate was 33%, and Slot usage was 13%. Field Vision’s Havoc Ratings had McKinney as the fourth-best Safety in 2023. Martindale used McKinney as a tool, moving him around the offense and even sending him on pressures.
What are Havoc Ratings? Think PFF grades, but better. Ratings are built by creating a model that calculates individual player impact on a play-by-play basis, accounting for virtually every outcome a player is responsible for that creates (or degrades) value for their team.
One aspect of his elite game last year was his man coverage skills. McKinney ranked fourth in Havoc for all Safeties. With Hafley’s preference for man coverage at the college level, it wasn’t a stretch to see him utilize McKinney that way. Adding multiple Safeties in the draft gave the illusion that Hafley would play around with different Safety configurations. After five games, that isn’t the case.
So far this year, McKinney has been a true Free Safety, patrolling the deeper parts of the field. He’s only played in the box on 19% of his snaps and in the Slot only 4% of the time. The emergence of Jovan Bullard as a viable option at Slot (25% of his snaps) and Strong Safety has allowed Hafley to keep McKinney as a deep prowler.
Evan Williams has also shown promise in the two games he’s received meaningful reps. In those games, he averaged a Havoc grade of 71.7, which, if he qualified (min. three games), would be the 20th-best Safety in Havoc Ratings. Bullard is currently 46th.
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