Super Bowl Preview
Super Bowl Preview
MatchQuarters tells you everything you need to know for the big game.
It’s the season finale. So let’s break down the Super Bowl!
»» How’d I do predicting the playoffs? 1-1 last round & 10-2 overall.
»» When: Sunday, Feb. 12th
»» Where: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
»» Matchup Overview: The matchup features the #1 overall seed in the NFC against the #1 seed in the AFC. The Chiefs’ early season loss to the Bills didn’t factor in, as Buffalo’s non-game against Cincinnati placed Kansas City ahead of the Bills in the standings. Philadelphia was the class of the NFL all year. There were rumblings at the end of the season if the 49ers were, in fact, the better team, but those questions were answered in the Championship Round. The matchup is against arguably the two best teams all year in the NFL, something we rarely see in the Super Bowl.
Regarding DVOA (Football Outsiders), the Eagles and the Chiefs are both in the Top-5 (3rd and 4th, respectively). Both offenses are elite, with the Chiefs being over 10 percentage points higher than the Eagles, who come in at #3. It is a game of opposites on the offensive side of the ball. The Chiefs hold the #1 passing attack and the #9 most efficient run game. Philly has the #1 rushing attack and the 9th-best passing game.
The most significant discrepancy is in defense, where Philly sits at #6 overall, and the Chiefs roll in at 17th. There is an argument for the Eagles’ schedule being “soft,” with Dallas and Detroit being the only top-10 DVOA teams they faced. The game against the Lions came in the first week, and Philadelphia split its series with the Cowboys.
Regardless, the matchup pairs an interesting blend of philosophies. First, the Eagles have used their QB’s rookie deal to load up on talent. Three defensive stars, LB Kyzir White, ED Haason Reddick, and CB James Bradberry, came to Philly via free agency. The trade for AJ Brown in last year’s draft took the pressure off rising star WR DeVonta Smith while giving QB Jalen Hurts a bonafide #1 target.
The Chiefs, on the other hand, made waves around the league by trading away arguably the best WR in the NFL, Tyreek Hill, to the Dolphins. The move created cap space around Mahomes’ contract and ammo in the draft. Free agent pickups WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, and WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling have been serviceable in their first year at Arrowhead.
The real story in KC is a defense that features four rookies in the secondary that have played significant snaps all year. Jaylen Watson, Trent McDuffie, Joshua Williams, and Bryan Cook have all started at some point this year in the secondary. DE George Karlaftis has excelled as well. Where Philly went and “bought” their Super Bowl appearance, KC did the opposite, relying on the draft and a freak at QB to do the work. As Sumer Sports points out, the Chiefs had by far the most rookie games played by a playoff team.
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Super Bowl Preview // Team Break Downs
The offensive “kings” of the NFL Playoffs have been the Eagles, who sit #1 overall in post-season DVOA. KC comes in at #3, but not by much (3.6%). Concerning defensive performances in the playoffs, Philly is by far the #1 team at -43.3%. The next closest is Cincinnati, at -19.7%. Again, the Eagles have dominated on defense, which will need to continue if they are going to win.