MatchQuarters' Chess Match: New England Patriots vs. the Miami Dolphins (Week 2 '23)
Though the Dolphins won their Week 2 matchup with the Patriots, Bill Belichick showed his ability to transform the New England defense into a multidimensional hybrid scheme.
The Dolphins’ offense was one of the most fun units to watch last season. At the beginning of the year, the offense looked unstoppable outside of a major hiccup in Buffalo. Though much will be said about whether they can ultimately win in the cold or the playoffs, their production on the offensive side of the ball cannot be denied.
In total, Miami finished the year ranked first in total yardage (401.3), first in yards per carry (5.1), and second in points per game (29.2). Tua Tagovailoa led the league in passing with 4,624 total yards. Tyreek Hill led the league in receiving yards with 1,799. He looked to break the 2,000-yard mark before an ankle injury toward the end of the year slowed him down.
On the ground, rookie Devon Anchane literally burst onto the scene with 800 yards on only 103 carries. His average of 7.8 per rush is the best by a RB with a minimum of 100 carries and could have been better had he not gotten injured. Miami’s feature-back, Raheem Mostert, became the oldest RB to eclipse the 1,000-yard mark in NFL history at 31.
Overall, the Dolphins offense was meme-like to start the season, putting up video game numbers. Their Week 3 win over the Broncos saw them score 70 points, a number that hasn’t been seen in the NFL since the ‘66 Redskins. The 1940 Bears and 1950 Rams are the only other teams also to reach that number.
It didn’t look like anyone could compete with the Dolphins offensively through the first six weeks of the NFL season. The 49ers (from which Miami’s scheme stems) and the Bills, who beat the Dolphins twice last season, were the only teams within their orbit. Eventually, injuries and talent teams caught up to Miami, whose season resembled The Tortoise and the Hare fable.
Reality began to set in against Buffalo in Week 4 and then again in Week 7 against the Eagles. Still, the Dolphins continued their march against poor defenses, where the speed differential was apparent. Finishing 11-6 and a first-round loss to the Chiefs, their second of the season, the Dolphins struggled against most top-level defense.
For the Patriots, head coach Bill Belichick's 2023 season was a ‘lame duck’ year. Most pundits around the league could see the vultures circling the Hall of Fame coach. The focus was centered on the team's lack of victories and the absolute chaos of its offense.
Even in the disorder, the defense was vintage Belichick. The defense finished 9th in DVOA and third against the run (FTN). The defense looked just as good in terms of EPA, finishing fifth overall and first against the run (Field Vision). The defense was inconsistent against the pass, finishing 14th in DVOA and 15th in EPA.
Belichick still ran most of his coverages from a closed-post look, heavily emphasizing Cover 1. Compared to last season, the rates are almost identical, with a couple of percentage points being stolen from Quarters and moved to Cover 2. The Patriots also ran more Cover 3 compared to last year, though only marginally (~3%).
The roster for 2024 will look very similar, but several familiar faces have moved on. At Safety, rotational players Adrian Phillips (free agent) and Jalen Mills (Giants) will not return. One of the main features of the Belichick system in the past few years has been the ability to utilize multiple Safeties on the field to create mismatches for the offense.
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