NFL Weekly Data Download: Week 3

MatchQuarters weekly look at the data from the NFL's previous week.

Sep 25, 2024

Welcome to your weekly source for NFL data and discussion surrounding the NFL’s defensive ecosystem. This is where film analysis and data meet…

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Coverage Usage

Cover 0: The Eagles are squarely rooted here and have been in the lead since Week 1. One a few showed up against the Saints. The high-pressure teams, the Broncos, Raiders, and Vikings are also on this list. The Chiefs can be confusing when looking at these charts because, depending on the path, the coverage can look like Cover 0. Typically, it is an adjustment in their Tango package based in Palms (2-Read).

Cover 1: The Browns are familiar, but the Broncos are interesting. We’ve seen this play out before with Vance Joseph in Arizona. It didn’t go so well. Still, the Broncos’ defense is playing relatively well, and they are getting pressure on the QB. Over a long season, the hope is that there will be more results like last weekend than in the two previous weeks.

Cover 2: The Bills have become masters at Cover 2 (not Tampa), and Flores is staying with his utilization of Tampa on passing downs. The surprise here is the Commanders. Quinn used Cover 2 as a change-up to his Cover 1 dominant scheme in Dallas, but not to this extent. Washington’s defense is one of the worst in the NFL, and a shift to more zone might be needed to let the secondary catch its breath.

Cover 3: Gus Bradley and Mike Tomlin. Need I say more…?

Quarters: The Vikings are officially our Quarters team this year. The Cardinals, who owned this spot last year, look to be shifting towards more of a Cover 3 base from their unique defensive structure. Still, they are running it at a relatively high rate. We are also seeing more teams breach the 25% mark.

Cover 6: Yes, the expected ‘new’ Ravens and Fangio-adjacent crew is here, but the Packers, who are more in line with the 49ers, Jets, and Texans, are starting to run more Half-Field looks in their system.

Blitz & Stunt Rates

Though the average Blitz Rate in the NFL is still at 30% (that is normal), a few teams are exceeding expectations and closing in on the 50% mark. Last year, the Vikings were the clear front-runner, but Flores has toned it down just a bit. Tampa Bay is typically up here as well. The Broncos and Raiders are both on a blitzing spree this season. Denver is getting a return on their investment, but Las Vegas is not, as the chart illustrates below.

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What Mike Macdonald is doing in Seattle should be commended, and it's not surprising when you look at his track record in Baltimore. The Seahawks are among the best in Pressure Rate and aren’t even blitzing at a high amount. That bodes well for a top team in their division through Week 3.

Staying in the West, the 49ers have real issues up front. They have the lowest Blitz Rate in the NFL and lower than the median Pressure Rate. Their sister schemes in the Jets and Texans look to be off to good starts. This was a concern heading into the season, and it appears those concerns are very real through three weeks.

Middle of the Field (MOF) Disguise

Disguise rates are up by almost five percent this year, which is a pretty big jump. Still, some teams are not on this train of thought. One in particular is the Cowboys, who are the least likely to disguise coverages and are struggling on defense. Offenses cannot only run against them, but they also know exactly what coverage will be pre-snap. Dallas is still 12th in Pass DVOA, but the run game has anchored them down.

Unsurprisingly, the the Rams and Falcons are at the top of the disguise list and have been for several years. The Panthers and Eagles are here, too. Finally, the Cardinals and their unique defensive structure round out the top five.

Steelers lead the league in closed-post coverage, while the Vikings are officially a split-field team.

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EPA & Success Rates

A clear group of defenses is starting to form at the top of the chart. The Steelers are probably the best unit through three weeks, but the Chargers, Vikings, Bears, Seahawks, and Saints are closing in.

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The Steelers have overtaken the Chargers in EPA/play, and the Commanders are by far the worst defensive unit in the league.

Personnel Usage

The Lions (4-3) and Rams (3-4) are the only units playing over 50% Base. The Commanders, who have Dann Quinn as their Head Coach, are at the extreme in the Nickel category. The Vikings, who run 33% of their defense from Dime, round out our three main categories.

Offense vs. Coverage

Cover 0: The Commanders and Jaden Daniels are closing on the Eagles. Both of which have very mobile QBs.

Cover 1: Patriots don’t have dominant WRs and a non-mobile QB.

Cover 2: The Dolphins’ offense is uniquely created for Cover 2. Quick horizontal motions and deep in cuts. Tampa 2’s dream.

Cover 3: Since the Steelers are taking shots down the field with Pickens and running the ball with Fields, teams have shied away from Cover 3. It appears the Packers are getting a high dose of the closed-post coverage to replace them.

Quarters: The Jets, Saints, and 49ers all use around 25% of the Quarters. New Orleans and San Fransisco stem from the same tree and are not as meme-like as the Dolphins, but the Jets getting a high dose of Quarters is interesting and something to look into.

Cover 6: Teams are doubling Davante Adams with zone coverage, placing the Cover 2 side his way. The Steelers are a close second (Pickens).

Field Vision Havoc Rankings - Week 3

The Colts’ Jaylon Jones’ pick-six put him in the top spot. Teammate Kenny Moore II, who primarily plays Ni, is with him too.

The Chiefs Safety Ni Chammarri Conner garners our top Safety spot along with the Jets’ Chuck Clark and Browns’ Grant Delpit.

In the first two weeks, pundits and fans were concerned about Nick Bolton's play. This week, it appears he has righted the ship. The Titans Ernest Jones comes in second, with the Texans’ Azeez Al-Shaair in third.

The Dolphins Zach Seiler takes the spot after a dominant day pass rushing vs. the Seahawks (he even got a pick!). Eagles iDL Jalen Carter was essentially unblockable against the Saints. Cameron Heyward comes in at third. At 35, he is still a dominating presence.

The Saints’ Carl Granderson had 1.5 sacks and two Stops (negative EPA run plays) to get the top spot this week. The Seahawks’ D-line is cooking, and the chef this week was Derick Hall and his two sacks. The Cardinals have a workhorse in Dennis Gardeck, who adds value in every category, especially in coverage.

*A complete list of Havoc & Threat Ratings will be available on the Field Vision app before this weekend. Make sure to download it to access ratings and advanced stats. We also plan to make the app completely free sometime next week, so there is no reason not to download it.

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» Make sure to follow along every Wednesday for the Data Download. Link to last week’s article below:

NFL Weekly Data Download: Week 2

Sep 18

Read full story

FAQs

What is R & P? Run & Pass
What is Sim? Simulated pressure, or a blitz that shows 5+ but only rushes 4.
Where is Cover 8 (HQQ) located in the data? Cover 6
What is a stunt? Line movement
What is a blitz? Any play with an off-ball player attacking the line of scrimmage

» If you have any other questions, please leave them in the comments.

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