NFL Weekly Data Download: Week 2
NFL Weekly Data Download: Week 2
MatchQuarters weekly look at the data from the NFL's previous week.
Welcome to your weekly source for NFL data and discussion surrounding the NFL’s defensive ecosystem. This is where film analysis and data meet…
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On Thursday, I will have an article detailing the dip in offense across the NFL over two weeks. Offensively, numbers are down, and teams have shifted focus from passing to running. Scoring isn’t necessarily down, though. Last year, the average offense scored 21.7 points a game. So far this season, we are at 21.3. It’s a dip, but not one of significance.
The actual trends are in yardage numbers shifting from passing to rushing. Play counts are also down. In 2020, the league had 4,396 record plays through two weeks. After this past week, the NFL sits at 4,073. Because the ball is being run, the clock is also running, which shortens the game, leading to fewer plays.
A couple of other things to note on this downturn of yardage:
We are seeing fewer Big Time Throws (i.e., Deep Shots). Defenses are playing more zone coverages, which cap verticals, forcing offenses to throw lower in the zone. Offenses are already finding ways to cope with this, one being Escort Screens.
Offensive line play has been a common topic for the past few years. Less practice time at the NFL level and a college ecosystem that favors RPOs, quick-strike passing, and zone blocking have led to less development at the O-line.
Most teams now utilize preseason games to play back-ups and evaluate players deep in the roster. Offenses that need live reps only get them if their teams have dual practices. Even then, this is a highly curated and coordinated time. So, it is unsurprising that offenses are starting slower now (don’t tell the Saints!).
The box is lighter with more split field shells (not necessarily coverages), and OCs are finally taking the bait. Where’s my ‘Run the damn ball!’ crowd? It’s finally your time (again)!
Coverage Usage
Cover 0: Vic Fangio has come to Philly with a vengeance. In the first two weeks, he leads the league in Cover 0. All of last year, he was only at 6.6%. Interestingly, he is trying to play more of the coverage but not necessarily blitzing more. Last season, he was 17th in the league in Blitz Rate at ~28%. This year, that number sits at ~34%. The Chiefs Spagnuolu is also coming in hot this year, with an elevated Cover 0 usage. The Broncos Vance Joseph appears to be taking a page from Brian Flores’ book and utilizing pressure and pressure coverage to create pressure for a transitioning secondary.
Cover 1: Shane Neilsen is back to his New Orleans ways in Jacksonville, running the most Cover 1 in the league. The Broncos, whom I mentioned before, are a close second, with the Browns coming in third. Denver is playing man coverage on over 55% of their calls, which easily leads the league. Cover 1 rates are up 3% compared to last year through two weeks.
Cover 2: The Bills take the top spot this week because that is basically what they played against the Dolphins for the entire game. With two of the best zone CBs in the NFL and question marks at Safety, Sean McDermott felt the need to stay in Cover 2. The coverage also gave the Bills ‘hard’ edges against Miami’s outside-hitting run game. A final factor is Tua, who doesn’t throw outside very often. Playing Cover 2 invites the Fade, and with two main WRs under 5-11 and two CBs over 6-1, why not invite the low percentage throw?
Cover 3: The Colts Gus Bradley is back (as though he never left) to his old ways, leading the league in Cover 3 usage. The Fangio crew is also here, but they are running their Cover 3 from a split-field shell.
Quarters: Who is the top Quarters team in the NFL right now? The Minnesota Vikings. After spamming every opponent with Hot coverages last year, Brian Flores is transitioning his defense to a Quarters base. Only the Texans (another surprise) are over the 30% mark. The leader from last year, the Cardinals, is currently running Cover 3 as their dominant scheme. Titans, Jets (similar system to Houston), and Chiefs round out the top five.
Cover 6/8: Jesse Minter in LA has hit the ground running and is doing it by utilizing ‘targeted’ coverages in the Cover 6/8 family (link below). Quarter-Quarter-Half has been around forever, but recently, thanks to Fangio, we see teams shift the Quarters side to and away from the strength. Mixing this coverage rotation with weak rotation Cover 3 muddies the reads for QBs post-snap. For the Chargers’ that is spelling success. They have the lowest Dropback EPA and second lowest Dropback Success Rate (Dallas is #1).
Blitz & Stunt Rates
Look who is back near the top spot. Brian Flores and the Vikings blitzed the 49ers, something the Chiefs did in the Super Bowl, and walked away with a victory on Sunday. The Broncos are still number one, and it appears Vance Joseph’s answer is to blitz at volume. We’ve seen this play out before when he was in Arizona, and it didn’t go so well.
Las Vegas also utilizes pressure at a high rate, and Anthony Weaver is in Miami. Tampa Bay is typically high in this area as well. The Cardinals have the highest simulated pressure rate, which tracks as they have one of the more unique hybrid defenses in the NFL.
The Raiders also utilize line movement at one of the highest rates in the NFL. Flores and the Vikings hold the top spot, though. Not many teams stunt during run-downs because of the high likelihood of getting caught in a bad spot, but it appears the Patriots are trying to manufacture tackles for loss with iDL Christian Baramore out for the season.
The Broncos are blitzing well above the rest of the league on passing downs, but they are garnering pressure. This was the opposite for the Vikings last year.
One early surprise has been the Seattle Seahawks' pass rush. However, we shouldn’t be shocked, as Mike Macdonald got tremendous value from his D-lines in Baltimore.
A team that should be worried is the Browns, who are in the middle of the pack. Their defense relies heavily on pressure from a static front. Being in the NFL’s middle class is sub-optimal. The 49ers are in a similar boat and was a major concern for many around the league entering this year.
Middle of the Field (MOF) Disguise
We have come to an equilibrium in basic shell usage in the NFL. For several years, we have sat at around 55% closed-post coverage. Quarters usage has risen, but that is mostly due to Cover 2 usage. The big shift is Cover 1 moving to Cover 3.
Disguise rates are higher this year, and I feel they will likely stay that way. Though we see more running on early downs (and success), this trend is about stopping the pass. You pass to score and run to win, so if a defense can limit scoring and keep an offense from using explosive passes as its engine, it will take that every time.
One trend to look for is if rushing numbers continue to hold steady or grow. Will defenses utilize less coverage disguise? If so, does that amplify the play-action passing game? These are questions to keep an eye on.
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EPA & Success Rates
I like using this chart from RBSDM to section defenses into tiers. The Chargers are number one, with the Saints and Steelers playing excellent defense behind them. The Bears seem to still be on the same track they were at the end of last year: one of the better defenses in the NFL.
Brian Flores has to be credited with getting the players he needed and then changing the defense to fit those players. Minnesota has Sam Darnold as its quarterback, and if he turns into a pumpkin this fall, the defense will need to be elite to carry them into the playoffs.
Dan Quinn and the Commanders don’t look great to start the year, and there are major concerns in New York (Giants), Indianapolis, and Philly.
Jesse Minter appears to be Mike Macdonald 2.0. The Chargers lead every EPA category through two weeks and are second in Dropback and Rush Success rates. Not bad for a ‘rookie’ college DC. Minter runs the same system we saw proliferate through the NFL when about every Ravens senior assistant got picked up as a coordinator. With a strong run game behind them on offense, this defense might be able to keep it up.
If it wasn’t for the Chargers, we’d be talking about the Saints. Dennis Allen finally has everyone healthy and garnering a decent pass rush, which was missing last season. An impressive win against the Cowboys in Week 2 has New Orleans buzzing. Right now, they look like a clear-cut playoff team. Similar to Minnesota, they need the quarterback play to stay elevated.
Personnel Usage
Base: The Panthers, Lions, and Rams are all playing ‘base’ over 50% of the time. Only Detroit is in the top half of the league in EPA. The Lions are currently 10th (FTN).
Nickel: The Jets are running some Penny this year, which is uncharacteristic for a team that wants to utilize a four-man front on most of their calls. They also play with a Big Nickel package, moving Ashtyn Davis to Slot. Saleh has consistently shown he is willing to be flexible, which is showing up this year as they shift to using more packages.
Dime: The Saints and the Vikings are leaning into their DB strength (and the fact that they are winning early downs) to put teams in a bind late in the down. The Saints are loaded at CB, and the Vikings have plenty of DBs to choose from. Interestingly, the Vikings have played the Giants and 49ers, two teams that don’t mind using a TE (or FB).
Offense vs. Coverage
Cover 0: With Tee Higgins out early, defenses are testing the Bengals’ ability to protect and play Cover one at a high rate. The Bills being high on Cover 0 tells me teams are playing nine-man spacing Quarters to stop Josh Allen’s designed runs. Plus, their WR corp doesn’t have a clear #1.
Cover 1: New England needs a top-flight WR badly. Teams have not respected their group for several years, and the Patriots see high volumes of Cover 1. Seattle is high because they played the Broncos and Patriots to start the year.
Cover 2: How do you defend the Dolphins? Play Cover 2 and let your D-line eat. The playbook is out. Below is my write-up after last year’s early Bills-Dolphins game.
Cover 3: I figured the Steelers would be the #1 team on this list, but that is false. The Packers, who have played the Eagles and Colts, are here. That being said, Gus Bradley is carrying this stat, and Fangio is running Cover 3 ~55% of the time in Philly. The Falcons and Saints round out the top three, and the Steelers (Authur Smith) are seeing more Cover 1 than 3.
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» Make sure to follow along every Wednesday for the Data Download. Link to last week’s article below:
FAQs
What is R & P? Run & Pass
What is Sim? Simulated pressure, or a blitz that shows 5+ but only rushes 4.
Where is Cover 8 (HQQ) located in the data? Cover 6
What is a stunt? Line movement
What is a blitz? Any play with an off-ball player attacking the line of scrimmage
» If you have any other questions, please leave them in the comments.
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© 2024 MatchQuarters | Cody Alexander | All rights reserved.
Cody, one thing for the Jets that is messing up the fronts data is that Jermaine Johnson is listed as a LB (b/c he changed his # to 11), but he's a down lineman. Less of an issue going forward now that he's out for the year, and I am not sure it's fixable since all of the databases seem to have it the same, but something to keep in mind. Anyone watching the Jets knows they never line up with 3 down linemen.