MatchQuarters' NFL Season Previews: The Pittsburgh Steelers, San Fransisco 49ers, & Cleveland Browns
MatchQuarters' NFL Season Previews: The Pittsburgh Steelers, San Fransisco 49ers, & Cleveland Browns
One team is looking to return to dominance, while the other two are trying to keep an elite level of play going and finish in the playoffs.
Each week leading up to the season, I will review the roster, schemes, and outlook for each defense in the NFL. I have a depth chart for every team with their 2023 Field Vision Sports HAVOC rankings and scores. Projected rookie starters will receive the league average HAVOC for that position. Notable losses are located in the upper left-hand corner. Click on the picture to expand for a better look.
What is HAVOC? I wanted to create a metric that better understood how defenders play within their scheme. For the D-line and LBs, it is pretty straightforward. Can you fit the run and create a pass rush? For LBs and some Edges, coverages have also been added.
In the secondary, it can get complicated. Not every team runs the same amount of coverage. Some, like Dan Quinn, Jim Schwartz, and Gus Bradley, live in a singular style of play, while others, namely Mike Macdonald and Vic Fangio, choose to play a multitude of coverages. I wanted to create a more nuanced way to look at DB play. How are they playing within man and zone schemes, and how diverse is their coverage palate?
Related Content: Field Vision Sports - Introducing Havoc Ratings
Utilizing HAVOC, which is biased towards player and scheme usage, we can better understand how these players are used within the ecosystem they play in. A great example is Seattle’s Riq Woolen, one of the best man coverage CBs in the game but struggles at zone. Team-wise, the Browns have three CBs that excel at man coverage, which suits what DC Schwartz is trying to do.
HAVOC allows us to track free agency signings and paint a better picture of their fit. Should the Commanders, who will play mainly man and 3-match coverages, bring in a zone-centric CB? No, that wouldn’t be wise. Using HAVOC allows us to see how teams are building their rosters defensively. So remember, these numbers show how productive the player was in the scheme they played in last year, which is reflected against their peers in their overall ranking.
Related Content: The Power of Evaluating Players using Play-by-Play Data
**The ratings in the team depth charts are my ‘raw’ Havoc scores.
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The Pittsburgh defensive scheme has stayed relatively the same since Head Coach Mike Tomlin took over in 2007. His defensive coordinators have been the legendary Dick LeBeau, Keith Bulter, and Teryl Austin. The continuity on defense has enabled the organization to stay static schematically but continue to excel on the field.
LeBeau was always known for his fire zones, and Butler amplified the pass rush. Austin has had to wade through the transition over the past few years with offensive ineptitude. The defense continues to be a staple of the Steeler way.
The quintessential Steeler concept is a five-man ‘dog’ rush with Cover 1 behind it. That concept still applies in the scheme. A ‘dog rush’ is nothing more than the five defensive linemen rushing their man and attempting to get free. No stunt, no second or third level blitz, just D-linemen rushing.
The scheme is dominated by single-high coverage in the backend. Cover 1 and 3 have always been Tomlin's mainstays, which has remained under Austin. Though I believe they want to play more man coverage, their talent in the secondary has limited their ability to do that. In the offseason, Pittsburgh moved to bring more man coverage defenders into the fold.
At its heart, the defense is a 3-4 single-high coverage base. The Steelers ran the third-highest amount of Cover 3 last year with the sixth-highest Blitz Rate (BR). That doesn’t mean they are constantly running Fire Zone coverage. Pittsburgh was barely behind the Buccaneers, who finished first in overall Base defense usage.
One concept the Steelers have added more recently is simulated pressures, utilizing Watt's athleticism. Last year, Watt was a top Edge in zone pass coverage Havoc. Still, the Steelers have among the lowest ‘box’ defender Blitz Rates at under 50%.
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» D-Line:
Everything about the front goes through TJ Watt. He is the catalyst that makes this front scheme work. Watt is an absolute terror when passing and can be disruptive in coverage. The Steelers' ability to set up other defenders off Watt is critical to the success of their defense.
Opposite Watt is Alex Highsmith, who was even better than Watt in zone coverage last year, coming in fifth for the Edge position. This is important because it shows a shift in Pittsburgh's philosophy. They are now willing to drop their Edges into coverage and change the picture for the O-line and QB. Smith is an anchor against the run and is more than adequate in pass rush, coming in 18th in pass rush Havoc last season.
Inside, the 14-year veteran Cameron Heyward is still dominant when healthy. He has been essential to this defense's success for over a decade. At Nose, Keeanu Benton has real potential. Last year, he was above average as a pass rusher but needs to improve as a run stuffer. Opposite Heyward is Larry Ogunjobi, a solid piece to counter the veteran’s dominance.
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» Linebackers:
Patrick Queen comes in from Baltimore to stabilize the middle of the defense. Last year, Queen earned second-team All-Pro honors. He is an elite pass rusher and should add to the Steelers ’ growing blitz schemes.
Queen will be paired with Elandon Roberts, who came from the Dolphins the prior year. Again, this is another ILB that excels at pass rush but leaves something to be desired in coverage.
The move to have two LBs that don’t necessarily complement each other's games reflects where the Steelers want to evolve as a defense. More simulated pressures and Fire Zones mean the Edges will most likely be in coverage. Shifting to more man coverage can also eliminate some other issues by either blitzing them or putting them on a RB who is most likely not going to release on a pass.
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» Secondary:
Pittsburgh's secondary is shifting to a man-dominance position. All four of its starters are better at the man than they are in the zone. Safeties Minkah Fitzpatrick and DeShon Elliot (Dolphins) are in the top 15 in their position regarding man coverage Havoc.
At CB, Joey Porter Jr. established himself as a rising star who can play man coverage. He finished 18th in man coverage Havoc. Newly signed Donte Jackson is over an entire year removed from his Achilles injury that cut short his ‘22 campaign. Pittsburgh is banking that year two away from the injury, and a fresh start will get him back to form. In ‘21, Jackson finished in the top 20 in Havoc Ratings for CBs.
The most crucial piece of this puzzle is Fitzpatrick’s ability to return to an All-Pro status. Last year, the Steelers didn’t move Minah around as much as they had, keeping him in more static positions as a Safety. That led to the All-Pro Safety having one of his worst years in production.
He’s always been a top-15 Safety in Havoc for the past five years, and the Steelers need him to get back to his ball-hawking days to bolster the secondary. His pattern in Elliot was a top 15 Safety in Havoc Ratings in ‘22 before playing in a zone-centric style under Vic Fangio. In almost every instance other than Porter Jr., the Pittsburgh staff is banking on veterans returning to their ‘normal’ levels of play.
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Though there was tremendous success last year for the 49ers, and they were one of the better defenses in the NFL, Kyle Shanahan moved to replace defensive coordinator Steve Wilkes after their Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs. Shanahan has a distinct way of playing defense, and Wilkes never really fit that profile.
Starting in ‘18, the 49ers moved away from the Pete Carroll system that Robert Saleh had come up under and retooled it to fit the needs within the NFC West. Gone was the reliance on Cover 3, and San Fransisco shifted to a Quarters base with Cover 1 as their primary closed-post coverage.
Last year, the 49ers came in third in Quarters usage and ran more Cover 3 than they did Cover 1. The latter fact is more of an overall trend in the NFL, shifting away from man-centric defenses to zone ones. The coverage structure is also relatively static, with the team only hiding intentions on 20% of their snaps.
The front structure is the engine of the scheme. Shanahan likes to play wide-9s and stay in a four-down front. Last year, San Fransisco had the fourth-lowest Stunt Rate and the lowest Blitz Rate in the NFL. Their LBs are required to run and hit or play coverage. Compared to their sister scheme in the Jets, they are almost identical.
Shanahan wants the front to be dominant, with high-powered Edges and an interior line that can shoot through gaps. Everything is predicated on keeping the athletic LBs clean and their Edge rushers focused on the QB. For the most part, this has worked. What iteration will be pulled out this year is still a question mark. Long-time assistant Nick Sorenson was elevated to replace Wilkes. It appears that Shanahan is trying to roll the clock back a bit.
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» D-Line:
In the off-season, the 49ers lost several D-linemen to free agency, seeing their depth go from plentiful to thin. Starters Arik Armstead, Clelin Ferrell, and Sebastian Joseph-Day are gone, with supporting cast members Edge Randy Gregory, iDL Javon Kinlaw, and ED Chase Young. The four interior D-linemen were critical in keeping the D-line fresh and O-lines off the edges.
The 49ers didn’t sit idly by. Leonard Floyd was signed away from the Bills. Floyd has been a sack machine for the past four years, and being opposite Nick Bosa should amplify his play. Nick Bosa is one of the best Edges in the game and should continue that trend in ‘24.
San Fransisco brought Maliek Collins (Texas) and Jordan Elliot (Browns) to pair with Javon Hargraves inside. Collins is a great pass rusher from inside, and Elliot gives San Fransisco a solid run-stopping piece inside. Hargraves is a top-20 iDL and in the top 10 in pass rush Havoc for iDLs.
There is a crop of younger talent on the roster in San Fransisco that hasn’t had a chance to shine. This year, that could change with so many key defections. Though free agents were brought in, the 49ers like to roll through their D-linemen to keep them fresh, which is a crucial part of the scheme. Look for Edges Robert Beal Jr. and Yefur Gross-Matos to grow in their roles.
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» Linebackers:
Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw are among the best LB duos in the NFC. Their games complement each other well. Warner is one of the best coverage LBs in the NFL, and Greenlaw is good in the box. Neither blitzes often, but both are serviceable when asked to do so.
Warner’s ability to run with offensive threats, even WRs, makes him an alien. Few LBs with athleticism can run with CeeDee Lamb as the vertical hook defender. He unlocks the defense and allows the secondary to focus on the deep passing game, knowing he can handle the intermediate.
Greenlaw is slated to return around the fifth or sixth week of the season. San Fransisco management acquired De'Vondre Campbell from the Packers to give Warner a functional partner. Campbell is an above-average coverage defender in the same mold as Greenlaw. San Fransisco has a nickel-based defense, so having three LBs is probably the most the 49ers will carry.
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» Secondary:
Talanoa Hufanga's ACL tear will likely keep him out of the starting lineup at the beginning of the season, but before he went down in November, he was having a good season. He was the 16th best Safety in Havoc Ratings until he was sidelined. His return will be critical for the secondary’s continuity, and the 49ers hope he can return to his ‘22 All-Pro form.
The Lions’ Tracy Walker was brought in to hold Hufanga’s spot until he returns. He was the odd man out in Detroit’s loaded Safety room. In the draft, the 49ers selected Wake Forest’s Malik Mustapha, who should be a factor early in the season and even find his way into the starting spot until Hufanga returns.
The 49ers have been searching for a third CB. One of the main insights that came to post-Super Bowl was Deommodore Lenoir’s desire to move inside against the Chiefs. In a podcast with Richard Sherman, he expressed his desire to move inside against the Chiefs, but Wilks and staff balked at the idea. He’s currently slotted as the starting Ni.
Charvarius Ward is projected to be the #1 outside CB in Fied Vision’s Havoc Ratings next year. Moving Lenior inside gives them an option at Ni that is not rooke Renardo Green. Isaac Yiadom had a breakout year for the Saints in ‘23 and should factor into the plans. He was the ninth-ranked man coverage CB in Field Vision’s Havoc Ratings. Finally, journeyman Rock Ya-Sin has been added for depth.
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The Browns' defense is relatively simple. They are a 4-3 base that runs Cover 1 and Cover 3 at volume. Everything is predicated on a dominant front line and a sticky secondary. Under defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, the Cleveland defense wants to suffocate opposing QBs with pressure.
Last year, Cleveland led the league in Cover 1 usage, running the coverage just under 40% of the time. With Cover 3 being their second favorite coverage, the Browns led the league in closed-post coverage usage at over 72% of their calls. They were also fifth lowest in coverage disguise.
The change-up in the backend was to run Cover 2, or Tampa, which tends to be a great pairing with dominant Cover 1 teams. The zone coverage counters many of the man-beaters they often see. The secondary is built for man coverage, so it is no surprise that Schwartz leaned into it in his first year.
The argument of coverage or pass rush has been around for ages. Great secondaries can struggle without a great pass rush if the quarterback can hold the ball and pick them apart. Schwartz needs a pass rush that can win often for him to play so much man coverage. Last year, the Browns had the second-best pressure rate behind the Cowboys, another team that played Cover 1 at volume.
Schwartz has found a recipe in Cleveland but was exposed in their game against the Texans. At times, the static nature of the Browns’ defense allowed Houston’s rookie QB CJ Stroud to pick them apart. This year will be critical for Schwartz, who needs to prove that he can mitigate some of the issues they saw in the playoffs. But the offense has to support this stellar defense.
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» D-Line:
The D-line is anchored by All-Pro and 2023 DPOY Myles Garrett. Garrett is a true pass rush specialist who is almost unstoppable when he wants to be. He does leave something to be desired in the run game, but he plays at an amazingly high level for the most part.
Za’Darius Smith gives the defense another anchor opposite Garrett. Smith is built in a similar mold and is much better at pass rush than defending the run. He finished 22nd in pass rush Havoc last year. Alex Wright and Ogbo Okoronkwo back up the two star Edges. The latter has shown more ability and will split time with Smith.
Inside, the Browns lost starter Jordan Elliot to San Fransisco but still have depth. This offseason, the Browns brought in Quinton Jefferson from the Jets, a pass rush specialist inside who fits the mold for what Schwartz is looking for.
Dalvin Tomlinson, the starting iDL, was hurt when he arrived at camp, but he should factor in early in the season. Jefferson, Shelby Harris, and Maurice Hurst are more than serviceable and allow the Browns to rush the passer. 2nd-round pick Maurice Hall Jr. should also factor in, but his current trouble with a domestic abuse case could hamper his rookie season.
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» Linebackers:
The second level of Schwartz’s scheme must be able to run and hit. The gap control style of play up front allows the LBs to see open holes and fill them quickly. Cleveland’s LB corp is full of athletic, rangy players.
Most notable is JOK, who just signed a new contract with the organization. Though he is not the greatest at coverage, he makes up for it against the run. Though the Browns want to run man coverage, JOK is best in zone.
Alongside JOK will most likely be Jordan Hicks, who is another LB that excels at stopping the run. Hicks comes over from the Vikings and should add a punch in the blitz game. He was a top 20 LB in pass rush in ‘23.
The Browns base is technically a 4-3, though they are primarily in Ni. Devin Bush is the third LB as it stands. With Anthony Walker JR. off to Miami, Bush will be the third LB in base. JOK and Hicks's ability to rush the passer, along with both Edges having the size to bump down, there is a world in which the Browns utilize some five-man fronts this season.
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» Secondary:
As stated, the Browns are built to run man. At every starting position, Cleveland has someone who excels when they are in front of a WR. Starting CB Denzel Ward is a top 10 CB in man coverage and is typically paired with Martin Emerson Jr., a rising star outside. He also is excellent in man coverage and should only get better.
At Ni is Greg Newsome, who was in the top five in man coverage Havoc last season. His ability to play the slot or outside gives the Browns flexibility. Ward has had injury issues and Newsomes’s ability to move outside gives Cleveland solid options and the ability to continue to play man coverage.
Depth is an issue, though, when an organization wants to play only three CBs. Both primary backups, Kalif Haillase and Justin Hardee, rarely see the field. The same goes for Ni Cameron Mitchell.
At Safety, Grant Delpit is one of the best ‘box’ Safeties in the game, and similar to the CBs, he excels at man coverage. The only starter you could argue is not a top player at his position is Juan Thornhill, the Browns’ Free Safety. Thornhill is serviceable and picks up the slack for the other four primary-man coverage DBs.
Ronnie Hickman and Rodney McLeod are above-average defenders who can hold down the secondary if called upon. Health is always a concern in Cleveland; many players have had issues finishing the year.
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» Last 3 Previews:
**The ‘magazine’ with all 32 previews will be out next Wednesday.
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© 2024 MatchQuarters | Cody Alexander | All rights reserved.
Cody would the Browns benefit from studying some of what the Arizona wildcats did last year in still running a lot of closed post coverages just changing the player in the post that way still getting more Disguise without having to add more coverages or am I just a noob fan that just said of a bunch jibberish