MatchQuarters' NFL Season Previews: New York Giants and the New England Patriots
There's a complete scheme overhaul in New York, under Shane Bowen, while the in New England, the student has become the master. Can he pave his own path forward for the Patriots?
Each week leading up to the season, I will review the roster, schemes, and outlook for each defense in the NFL. I have a depth chart for every team with their 2023 Field Vision Sports HAVOC rankings and scores. Projected rookie starters will receive the league average HAVOC for that position. Notable losses are located in the upper left-hand corner. Click on the picture to expand for a better look.
What is HAVOC? I wanted to create a metric that better understood how defenders play within their scheme. For the D-line and LBs, it is pretty straightforward. Can you fit the run and create a pass rush? For LBs and some Edges, coverages have also been added.
Related Content: Field Vision Sports - Introducing Havoc Ratings
In the secondary, it can get complicated. Not every team runs the same amount of coverage. Some, like Dan Quinn, Jim Schwartz, and Gus Bradley, live in a singular style of play, while others, namely Mike Macdonald and Vic Fangio, choose to play a multitude of coverages. I wanted to create a more nuanced way to look at DB play. How are they playing within man and zone schemes, and how diverse is their coverage palate?
Utilizing HAVOC, which is biased towards player and scheme usage, we can better understand how these players are used within the ecosystem they play in. A great example is Seattle’s Riq Woolen, one of the best man coverage CBs in the game but struggles at zone. Team-wise, the Browns have three CBs that excel at man coverage, which suits what DC Schwartz is trying to do.
HAVOC allows us to track free agency signings and paint a better picture of their fit. Should the Commanders, who will play mainly man and 3-match coverages, bring in a zone-centric CB? No, that wouldn’t be wise. Using HAVOC allows us to see how teams are building their rosters defensively. So remember, these numbers show how productive the player was in the scheme they played in last year, which is reflected against their peers in their overall ranking.
The ratings in this article are my ‘raw’ Havoc scores. In the coming weeks, we will roll out our comprehensive lists of top defenders at Field Vision. Make sure to subscribe to our mailing list to get instant access when we release new content and information.
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The Giants will be transitioning into a completely new defense this fall under the tutelage of former Titans defensive coordinator Shane Bowen. Under Wink Martindale, the Giants featured a blitz-centric style of play that pressured the secondary to hold up in man coverage.
Last year, the style of play didn’t help second-year CB Cor’Dale Flott (CB126) and ‘23 1st-round draft pick Deonte Banks (CB51). Bowen’s defense will still feature a majority Cover 3, but instead of matching it with Cover 1, the Giants will play much more Quarters coverage. The shift to zone should take off a lot of the pressure for the young CBs.
With a shift in the style of play, the blitz schemes will also drastically change. Martindale is one of the best at cooking up protection issues, but sometimes, it can be too much or leave defenders in less advantageous positions against good offensive lines.
Bowen will bring a more ‘passive’ approach to blitzing and feature a higher volume of simulated pressure. Last year, the Giants finished third in Blitz Rate (BR) at 44.4% compared to the Titans at 23.1% (24th).
Similar to most NFL defenses, the Giants will run a hybrid structure, able to shift from an even to an odd front, depending on the game plan. The ability to be multiple has become a critical piece in the modern NFL ecosystem. Offenses vary from week to week, and defenses need a way to create unique game plans without sacrificing carryover in their base concepts.
Though his defenses in Tennessee were never elite, Bowen has made a name for himself as one of the better defensive coordinators in the NFL. When Titans Head Coach Mike Vrabel was let go, it didn’t take long for Bowen to land on his feet. His scheme is exactly what the NFL is demanding right now: zone-centric and multiple.
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» D-Line:
Bowen is used to having a stout interior defensive line. He won’t have a dominant tandem in New York, but he will have Dexter Lawrence (DL5), who is arguably the best at his position. Lawrence has the rare ability to be elite in pass rush and run-stopping, which is why he is highly regarded. Regardless of the front structure, Lawrence should demand a double team, and Bowen will find ways to get him into one-on-one situations.
Alongside Lawrence will be a mix of Rakeem Nunes-Roches (DL155) and Jordan Phillips (DL120), who was brought over from the Bills. Nunes-Roches can play the 3 technique in the Giants’ Ni defense. Phillips, like Lawrence, is a massive human being weighing in at 340 lbs. Look for him to play the Nose in the Giants 3-4 Base.
At Edge, the Giants brought in Brian Burns (ED46), who should help former first-rounder Kayvon Thibodeaux (ED66). The former had a breakout year in ‘23, garnering double-digit sacks, but he needs to progress and develop into the top-tier talent the Giants drafted him to be.
If there is a glaring need upfront, it is depth; outside of the starting five, the Giants will be looking to develop depth. Edge Azeez Ojulari is a former 2nd-round pick and should give rotational depth if healthy. Inside, the Giants will be hoping everyone stays healthy and steps their game up under Bowen.
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» Linebackers:
Bobby Okereke (LB3) has become one of the best all-around LBs in the NFL. His ability in coverage and against the run makes him special. When asked to pass rush, he is serviceable, and his ability to lead the defense makes him an important asset.
Beside Okereke will be Micah McFadden (LB80), who will enter his third season as the starter in New York. McFadden excels in pass rushing, where he came in 26th for ILBs according to Field Vision’s Havoc Ratings. With Okereke, the all-around box defender, Bowen will ask McFadden to blitz the passer in Ni. NFL defenses are increasingly pairing their best LB with a pass rush specialist, or at least someone who can apply pressure.
The wildcard here is jack-of-all-trades-but-a-master-of-none Isaiah Simmons. The ‘ultimate’ hybrid has never been able to find a place in the NFL. Too clunky to play in the secondary and too slight to play on the edge, Simmons has struggled to find a home in the NFL. How Bowen utilizes his hybrid tools in his sub-packages will decide whether Simmons hangs around New York or is kicked down the road for someone else to figure him out.
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» Secondary:
The Giants continue to lose Safeties in the offseason. This year, Xavier McKinney bolted for Green Bay. Instead of hitting the free agent market, the Giants selected Minnesota’s Tyler Nubin in the 2nd-Round. Nubin is regarded as a plug-and-play Safety, and one of the best to come out of college last year. The Gophers ran a coverage diverse scheme, which should lend itself to Nubin coming on quickly.
Alongside Nubin will be Jason Pinnock (S35), who was excellent in the Giants man coverages last year. Bowen will play less man, but Pinnock has shown a propensity for Quarters, even in the Giants’ limited reps under Martindale. Behind both will be Jalen Mills (S70), a versatile Safety from the Patriots.
As stated, the CBs struggled under the pressure last year. Still, there were signs of life. The Giants didn’t make a move in the offseason to bring a veteran CB in to compete. Banks, in particular, showed enough flashes to be considered the number one CB on the roster. Being drafted in the 1st-round gives him a longer leash. Nick McCloud (CB57) was excellent in Quarters last year and should push Flott for a starting role.
Along with Nubin, the Giants drafted CB Dru Phillips from Kentucky. The rookie DB will most likely be the starting Ni in sub-packages. Phillips also has the ability to bounce outside. Look for Bowen to use the summer to figure out the configuration he wants.
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» More Shane Bowen Resouces:
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I don’t anticipate a lot of change in New England in regard to the defensive philosophy. Newly appointed head coach, Jared Mayo, is well versed in the system's inner workings. The major difference will be the creativity and influence of Bill Belichick, arguably one of the best defensive football coaches ever.
Much of New England’s focus will be on the offense, which has been on a downturn since losing Hall of Famer Tom Brady. Now that Belichick is out of the office, New England will try to recalibrate and revive that side of the ball.
Even with the dysfunction on offense, the defenses in New England never waned. Last year, the Patriots were a top-ten unit and absolutely stellar against the run. Though the passing defense struggled at times, all of the major pieces are back in place for ‘24.
The offseason saw several back-ups and key role players in the secondary depart from the Patriots. Jalen Mills, Myles Bryant (CB49), and Adrian Phillips all departed for greener pastures. Though the depth is gone, New England is more than comfortable with who is left on the roster.
One of the biggest concepts Belichick instilled in New England was multiplicity. The Patriots carried a deep roster of Safeties the past few years, and each had a particular role to play. With Belichick gone, and along with him the depth, Jabrill Peppers (S8) and Kyle Dugger (S39) will have to play a more prominent role along with hybrid LB/Safety Marte Mapu, who will fill the ‘Joker’ role on defense.
For decades, the Patriots have shifted from an even to an odd front defense as Belichick searched for market deficiencies in the NFL. The 2024 Patriots are built in the same fashion. There are so many hybrid players on this roster that Mayo will have the ability to mold the unit into what he wants. Still, with the legendary coach gone, I see this unit taking a slight step backward and a little less creative.
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» D-Line:
This past offseason, we saw many of the top-tier interior defensive players get paid. The Patriots Christian Christian Barmore (DL10) was part of that group. The young iDL signed a four-year, $84 million contract extension, keeping him in Boston until at least 2028. At 24, he has quickly become one of the best in the business.
Alongside Barmore is the consummate workhorse in Davon Godchaux (DL97). If New England has a glaring need, it is an iDL to pair with Barmore. Armon Watts (DL86) was added for depth from the Steelers, but if something happens to the starting two, the Patriots are in real trouble.
Technically, Keion White (ED89) is a DE, but the Patriots move him around to gain matchups. White has rare athleticism that allows him to play everything from a stand-up 9 tech down to a ‘quick’ 3 tech. His backup, Detrich Wise (ED64), is built in the same mold. The ability for both White and Wise to move inside can alleviate many of the depth issues in the true interior and add to the flexibility of the defense.
At ‘true’ Edge, the Patriots have ample versatility as well. Matthew Judon, who is coming off an injury riddle season, had four sacks in as many games before being relegated to the IR. Hybrid defender Jahlani Tavai (LB29) also has the ability to play on or off the ball. Judon tends to be used as a more traditional stand-up Edge, while Tavai plays a majority off the ball.
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» Linebackers:
Belichick used Tavai last season as a chess piece, moving him around each week to gain an advantage. In sub-packages, Tavai is athletic enough to play off-ball alongside starting Mike LB Ja’Whaun Bentley (LB50). Bentley is a LB set in the traditional form and great at coverage.
The third component of this group is converted Edge Anfree Jennings, who came on last season. Jennings is great against the run and holds up well in coverage. In true Patriot fashion, Mayo has multiple hybrid defenders who are comfortable on or off the ball, and everyone is great against the run.
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» Secondary:
The loss of Jalen Mills and Adrian Phillips allows the Patriots to move Marte Mapu full-time to Safety. Last year, the rookie played a limited role as a $-backer in packages. When drafted, New England received high praise. He fits the hybrid nature of their defense and will now gain access to more reps.
The Jabrill Peppers and Kyle Dugger duo at starting safety is dynamic. Both can play deep or near the box. In the past few years, Peppers has developed into one of the best Safeties in the NFL. Once hailed as only a box defender, Peppers has thrived in his multiple roles in Boston.
Dugger signed an extension this off-season, allowing the Patriots to transition to new management without losing its core players. Dugger is a great complement to Peppers, and Mayo will be able to utilize their skill sets to match up against various offenses. With Mills and Phillips gone, both will most likely play a more traditional role.
At CB, Christian Gonzalez will return after an injury ended his rookie campaign. In the brief time we got to see him, he fit the part of a lockdown CB and should progress in year two.
Marcus Jones will slide into the Ni position but look for Mapu to play the ‘big’ Ni against larger packages. Jonathan Jones (CB56) will start opposite Gonzalez. If there is a breakout star in the backup group, it’s Alex Austin. The former Bills waiver-wire pick-up showed a ton of flash last year.
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» Patriots Resouces:
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» Read the whole series:
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Where I think Simmons struggles is his poor nfl run play whereas Jabrill Peppers in my opinion can play more in the box and take on guards Simmons hasn’t shown that ability or am I way off base