MatchQuarters' NFL Season Previews: The Dallas Cowboys, Las Vegas Raiders, & the New York Jets
MatchQuarters' NFL Season Previews: The Dallas Cowboys, Las Vegas Raiders, & the New York Jets
One team stayed stagnant, another is rising with a dynamic duo up front, and another is trying to live up to its potential.
Each week leading up to the season, I will review the roster, schemes, and outlook for each defense in the NFL. I have a depth chart for every team with their 2023 Field Vision Sports HAVOC rankings and scores. Projected rookie starters will receive the league average HAVOC for that position. Notable losses are located in the upper left-hand corner. Click on the picture to expand for a better look.
What is HAVOC? I wanted to create a metric that better understood how defenders play within their scheme. For the D-line and LBs, it is pretty straightforward. Can you fit the run and create a pass rush? For LBs and some Edges, coverages have also been added.
In the secondary, it can get complicated. Not every team runs the same amount of coverage. Some, like Dan Quinn, Jim Schwartz, and Gus Bradley, live in a singular style of play, while others, namely Mike Macdonald and Vic Fangio, choose to play a multitude of coverages. I wanted to create a more nuanced way to look at DB play. How are they playing within man and zone schemes, and how diverse is their coverage palate?
Related Content: Field Vision Sports - Introducing Havoc Ratings
Utilizing HAVOC, which is biased towards player and scheme usage, we can better understand how these players are used within the ecosystem they play in. A great example is Seattle’s Riq Woolen, one of the best man coverage CBs in the game but struggles at zone. Team-wise, the Browns have three CBs that excel at man coverage, which suits what DC Schwartz is trying to do.
HAVOC allows us to track free agency signings and paint a better picture of their fit. Should the Commanders, who will play mainly man and 3-match coverages, bring in a zone-centric CB? No, that wouldn’t be wise. Using HAVOC allows us to see how teams are building their rosters defensively. So remember, these numbers show how productive the player was in the scheme they played in last year, which is reflected against their peers in their overall ranking.
Related Content: The Power of Evaluating Players using Play-by-Play Data
**The ratings in the team depth charts are my ‘raw’ Havoc scores.
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What will the ‘new’ Mike Zimmer defense look like in Dallas? That will be the major question heading into the ‘24 season. We last saw Zimmer as the Head Coach in Minnesota back in ‘21. Things change fast in the NFL.
One thing is clear: the defense will function much differently in ‘24. Last year, the Cowboys mainly ran Nickel and Dime packages with a converted Safety, Markquese Bell, as a Will LB. The run fits were, at times, tough to watch.
Zimmer runs a 4-3 base, and the Cowboys went out and got Eric Kendricks from the Vikings, who is familiar with Zimmer’s scheme. Kendricks should hold down the middle as two young linebackers attempt to find the legs.
The issue across the board in Dallas this offseason has been non-action. Outside of Kendricks, no meaningful additions were made to the roster for Zimmer to build from. Edges Dorance Armstrong and Dante Fowler Jr. left to join Dan Quinn in Washington. CB Stephon Gilmore, who was excellent as a replacement for injured Trevon Diggs last year, did not resign. Starting D-linemen Jonathan Hankins was also let go, and he signed with Seattle, where his coach, Aden Durde, is the defensive coordinator.
Zimmer has run a pretty ‘static’ defense with little movement in the backend in the past. The coverage menu is diverse and will depart from the Quinn closed post-centric defense he ran in Dallas.
One scheme that everyone wants to see is the Zimmer blitz package, which features double A-gap mugged looks, meaning both ILBs are standing in the A-gaps. Those packages made him famous in Minnesota and will likely be a feature in DFW. Like the coverage structures, the blitz package will be a massive shift from the previous regime.
Everything lies on the roster's talent. There is little depth at any given position, and the Cowboys have major issues with their salary cap. Dak, Lamb, and even Parsons are looking for new deals. All three are looking to break the back.
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» D-Line:
Everything runs through Micah Parsons, the number seven projected Edge by Field Vision, heading into ‘24. Parsons is a nightmare for offenses to handle, and his counterpart, DeMarcus Lawrence, is a perfect piece opposite. Lawrence is the number three rated Edge in Run Havoc. The tandem works perfectly together, and Zimmer will utilize each Edge’s skill sets similar to Quinn.
Behind the two top Edges, there are a lot of questions. Mashawn Kneeland was drafted in the second round from Western Michigan, and the opposite will most likely be Chauncy Golston. Again, the depth aligns with the starters, putting the ‘beef’ opposite the pass-rushing Edges.
Inside are also question marks. One of the main issues with drafting Mazi Smith last year was the Cowboys immediately asked him to drop weight. Smith was a mauler at Michigan and is now back up to nearly 330 pounds. Quinn wanted a fast front four, but that limited the strength of Smith, who had an abysmal rookie season. Under Zimmer, he will return to his more natural role of true Nose.
At DT, Osa Odighizuwa will be the featured starter. Odighizuwa is projected to be the 27th-best interior D-linemen. He’s a solid contributor, and if Smith can become an above-average Nose, the D-line has the potential to be much better against the run than last year. Behind Odighizuwa will be Viliami Fehoko, who didn’t see a rep as a rookie. Similar to Edge, depth is an issue.
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» Linebackers:
Eric Kendricks is solid against the run, with a Havoc Rating of 26th in the NFL, and is excellent as an off-ball blitzer, coming in 12th in that metric. His addition should solidify the middle of the box. Back-up Damien Wilson was signed to the practice squad towards the end of last season and hasn’t played meaningful snaps since the ‘22 season with Carolina.
DeMarvion Overshown tore his ACL last season and will likely be the Sam LB who can moonlight behind the Will LB, Damone Clark. Clark is seen as a physical freak who doesn’t see the field very well. Moving him to Will allows Zimmer to utilize his athleticism in coverage. Last year, Clark was solid in zone coverage and above-average against the run, adding little regarding pass rush.
The wild card in this group is Micah Parsons. At times last year, Quinn utilized Parsons as an off-ball LB, and the young Edge sees himself in that regard. The Cowboys list him as a LB instead of a DE on their official roster. The issue here is that Dallas has little depth up front, and I would be surprised if we saw Parsons collect a high volume of reps at the second level.
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» Secondary:
DaRon Bland exploded onto the scene last year with the injury to Trevon Diggs. The young CB has 14 interceptions in 23 games as a starter. That is an insane number. Bland finished the year eleventh in Field Vision’s Coverage Havoc and was better in zone (10th) than he was in man (16th).
According to Field Vision's Havoc Ratings, Diggs was the eighth-best CB in ‘21 and saw that rank dip to 30th in ‘22. Still, a healthy Diggs is projected to be a top-20 player. The duo of Bland and Diggs can potentially be one of the best CB tandems in the NFL.
Quinn wanted to carry a treasure trove of Safeties, but Zimmer has shifted away from that philosophy, utilizing the extra capital to build LB depth. Gone is Jayron Kearse, a current free agent, and in is Markquese Bell, who will now be converted back to Safety.
Bell will likely back up Strong Safety Donovan Wilson, a top-10 ‘box’ Safety in ‘23. Wilson was elite against the run last season, coming in sixth in Run Havoc. The ability of Bell to play near the box also allows Zimmer to create packages in his Dime looks or even utilize Bell, or Wilson, as a Big Nickel. Opposite Wilson is Malik Hooker, who struggled last season after a decent ‘22.
At Nickel, CB Jourdan Lewis will most likely continue to hold that position down. Last year, he was excellent in man coverage (27th) and against the run (20th) but struggled in zone (124th). The latter will have to change if he wants to stay on the field, as Zimmer leans heavily into zone usage. Like at every level, the Cowboys are in trouble if there is any injury to a starter.
» Other Diggs/Bland Resouces:
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The Raiders exploded at the end of last year's season. Under Patrick Graham's tutelage, the defense went from one of the worst to close to the top in regard to EPA. A shift in the secondary made all the difference, but the run defense was the engine all season.
From weeks nine to eighteen, the Raiders run defense was unmatched. The passing defense stepped up in a big way as well down the stretch. Graham’s ability to utilize slight adjustments in the backend, primarily the pick-up of Jack Jones from the Patriots.
Much can be said about the transition from Josh McDaniels to Antonio Pierce as the Head Coach. McDaniels was fired after Week 8, and the rest is history. The stats don’t lie. The defense picked up, and the Raiders finished 5-4 and barely missed the playoffs.
Defensively, the unit was solidified in the offseason with the addition of Dolphins D-linemen Christian Wilkins. He will replace outgoing iDL Bilal Nichols, a massive upgrade inside. There are depth issues, but if the starters stay intact, the defense can start hot in ‘24.
Graham runs a base Nickel defense that relies on the front four to gain pressure. Cover 3 is the primary coverage, and the Raiders ran some of the league's lowest rates of man coverage last year. This is a ‘lunch pale’ defense that didn’t hurt itself at the end of last season.
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» D-Line:
Wilkins will be one of the Raiders' most critical defensive additions in a long time. Being paired with Maxx Crosby will allow Las Vegas to play with protections.
Crosby is a production monster, and Field Vision has him as the projected #1 Edge in the NFL this season. He’s elite against the run and is one of the best pass rushers in the league. His motor stands out the most.
With Wilkins, Graham can put them together or opposite, forcing one-on-ones where their opponent’s O-line is weakest. Adding Wilkins gives Las Vegas the NFL’s projected #4 iDL. Last year, Wilkins ranked #4 in pass rush Havoc for iDLs and was a top-10 iDL in run Havoc. Combined with Crosby, that will likely wreak havoc on their opponent’s O-lines.
The front is not just a two-man crew. Edge Malcolm Koonce had a breakout year last season, recording eight sacks. That production can rise with Wilkins on board. 1st-round draft pick Tyree Wilson struggled last season and needs to push Koonce for reps.
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» Linebackers:
Robert Spillane is the quintessential workhorse LB in the middle. Nothing flashy about his game, but he gets the job done and always seems to be around the ball. Field Vision projects him to be the 20th-best LB in ‘24. Spillane was 19th overall in coverage Havoc last year, finishing 14th in zone. He’s a perfect fit in Graham’s defense.
Alongside Spillbane is Divine Deablo, who had a much better year in ‘23 than his two previous years. The young LB still struggles in coverage but is serviceable against the run. Luke Masterson should push him. The Raiders also drafted Tommy Eichenberg from Ohio State, who should back up Spillbane.
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» Secondary:
The Raiders dropped Marcus Peters and David Long halfway through the season and inserted Jack Jones and Amik Robertson (now a Lion). The move proved to be the right one as the Raiders defense soared. Jones, in particular, did not fit in with Bill Belichick in New England, and moving to play for his former college coach in Pierce changed his career trajectory.
Jones has major potential as an outside CB and has proved that in his limited time as a starter in Las Vegas. Losing Robertson hurts, but the Raiders brass feel they have competent competition on the roster. Last year’s 4th-round draft pick Jakorian Bennett will most likely get the first crack, with Brandon Fayscon and this year’s 4th-round pick Decamerion Richardson (Miss. State) looking to fight for playing time.
Marcus Epps was brought from Philly to take the starting role from former 1st-round draft pick Jonathan Abrams after the ‘22 season. He is best when playing man coverage. Tandem Safety Tre’von Moehrig had a tremendous season last year, ranking 10th in man coverage Havoc for Safeties. If looking for insight on this next season, the Raiders may want to run more man coverage in ‘24.
At Nickel, Nate Hobbs continues to hold down that spot as one of the best Slot defenders in the NFL. He ranked in the top 10 in run Havoc last year, allowing the Raiders to stay in Ni and not lose anything against the run.
» More Raiders Resouces:
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I have written extensively on Robert Saleh and Jeff Ulbrich’s defenses in New York. As one of the few teams that try to base from Quarters, they are a unique defense in a league dominated by Cover 3. Quarters are on the rise, which puts the Jets ahead of the curve. Only the Cardinals exceeded the Jets in Quarters usage last season.
Quarters and Cover 1 are great complements to each other when a defense has stellar outside CB play. Sauce Garnder and DJ Reed give New York one of the best CB tandems in the league. New York doesn’t blitz either, so the coverage has to be able to hold up if the front doesn’t hit (which it usually does).
Ulbrich and Saleh want to stay in their Ni defensive structure as much as possible. The roster in New York is built to withstand the difficulties of playing a 4-2-5 in the modern game. Built from the inside out, the interior D-line is one of the best in the NFL.
Pressure is created by stunting, which the Jets finished fifth in the NFL at 22.4%. The Jet’s blitz rate was only slightly ahead of their sister scheme in the 49ers. The defense has a coverage-first mentality and leans into its talented roster.
The organization is holding on for dear life to Aaron Rodgers's ability to produce on offense. On defense, the talent is there to be one of the best in the NFL. One storyline to keep track of is the contract situation of Haason Reddick, who, though traded to New York, is refusing to play.
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» D-Line:
The former Eagles Edge Haason Riddick is a sack machine. He’s also not impressed with the Jets’ front office. After trading for Riddick this offseason, he has yet to show up on-site and, as of Monday, August 12th, is requesting a trade from the organization. An abject failure of a move if the player forces his way out of town. What looked to be a steal for a conditional 3rd-round pick will most likely be a bargain for another team if he is traded.
Reddick would have started opposite Jermaine Johnson, who showed burst last year, racking up 7.5 sacks, up from 2.5 his rookie season. All signs point to him being even better in year three. If Reddick stays, the Jets have a nice one-two punch on the Edge.
If Reddick is out, ‘23 1st-round draft pick Will McDonald will likely be thrust into the spotlight. The loss of Bryce Huff to the Eagles and a disgruntled Reddick took a deep crop of Edges down to bare bones. Micheal Clemons is another answer, but he is more of a ‘Big’ 5 technique and doesn’t add much in the pass rush.
Inside is why the Edges are allowed to tackle the running back on their way to the QB. Quinnen Williams is a monster and is Field Vision’s #3 iDL heading into 2024. His dominance inside forces one-on-ones outside. He will be paired with former 49ers iDL Javon Kinlaw. who has been inconsistent in his career, but knows the system and can pass rush from as a 3 tech.
Swing D-linemen Soloman Thomas is a workhorse and can play anywhere from a 5 tech. to a 2i, depending on the assignment. Similar to Clemons, he is more of a run-stopping D-linemen than a pass-rush specialist.
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» Linebackers:
Keeping with the trend of building inside-out, the Jets’ two ILBs unlock the defense for Saleh & Co. CJ Mosley has gotten better every year and finished last season as Field Vision’s #1 coverage LB, even finishing ninth in run Havoc. Mosley is a complete LB and doesn’t add to the pass rush because he is rarely asked to blitz. He sits at #5 in protected Havoc for LBs in ‘24.
Alongside Mosely is Quincy Williams, who sits right behind Mosley in Field Vision’s projected ratings at #6. Where Mosley excels at coverage, Williams excels against the run, coming in second in run Havoc behind the Commanders’ Bobby Wagner. The Jets have built a linebacking tandem that complements each other and the front.
Related Content: Field Vision’s The NFL’s Top-5 LBs
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» Secondary:
If there is one spot where the Jets are the best in the NFL, it is at Corner. Sauce Gardner has been a top-tier CB since entering the league. Last year, he finished third in coverage Havoc behind the 49ers’ Charvarious Ward and the Bears’ Jaylon Johnson. He was also the #2 man coverage CB in Havoc behind the Saints Marshawn Lattimore. Sauce gets most of the publicity, and rightfully so, but his partner CB might be the most underrated player in the NFL.
DJ Reed has quietly put together an excellent resume. Field Vision’s Havoc ratings from ‘23 show he is in the top 15 in coverage and run support. Reed allows the Jets to play right and left with their CBs, and Reed is normally on the right side, whereas Sauce is on the left. The Quarters/Cover 1 dominant scheme fits well for the outside pair.
Inside, the Ni is Micheal Carter II, who has also grown each year he has been in the league. Though not as good as the outside duo, he is still serviceable in coverage. His ability to play near the box also stands out; he finished ‘23 as the #14 CB in run Havoc.
The biggest question mark on the Jets defense outside Reddick is at Safety, where Jordan Whitehead, a top-10 Safety in Havoc, returned to Tampa Bay, his previous team. He will likely be replaced with former Raven Chuck Clark, who missed the entire ‘23 season with an ACL tear. Prior to his injury he was a top-25 Safety in Havoc or ‘22.
Alongside Clark will be Tony Adams, who played well in his sophomore campaign. If you are noticing a trend, the Jets have done well under Saleh developing their defensive talent. Adams is projected to be the eleventh-best Safety in Havoc for ‘24.
» More Jets Resouces:
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» Other Previews:
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© 2024 MatchQuarters | Cody Alexander | All rights reserved.
As a chiefs fan this raiders d line terrifies me
Cody do you think success rate or epa is better judge of how a defense preformed during the year?