MatchQuarters' NFL Season Previews: Commanders, Cardinals, & Falcons
Let's start out by looking at last year's bottom feeders defensively in the NFL.
Each week leading up to the season, I will review the defensive roster, schemes, and outlook for each defense in the NFL. I have a depth chart for every team with their 2023 Field Vision Sports HAVOC rankings and scores. Projected rookie starters will receive the league average HAVOC for that position. Notable losses are located in the upper left-hand corner. Click on the picture to expand for a better look.
What is HAVOC? I wanted to create a metric that better understood how defenders play within their scheme. For the D-line and LBs, it is pretty straightforward. Can you fit the run and create a pass rush? For LBs and some Edges, coverages have also been added.
In the secondary, it can get complicated. Not every team runs the same amount of coverage. Some, like Dan Quinn, Jim Schwartz, and Gus Bradley, live in a singular style of play, while others, namely Mike Macdonald and Vic Fangio, choose to play a multitude of coverages. I wanted to create a more nuanced way to look at DB play. How are they playing within man and zone schemes, and how diverse is their coverage palate?
Utilizing HAVOC, which is biased towards player and scheme usage, we can better understand how these players are used within the ecosystem they play in. A great example is Seattle’s Riq Woolen, one of the best man coverage CBs in the game but struggles at zone. Team-wise, the Browns have three CBs that excel at man coverage, which suits what DC Schwartz is trying to do.
HAVOC allows us to track free agency signings and paint a better picture of their fit. Should the Commanders, who will play mainly man and 3-match coverages, bring in a zone-centric CB? No, that wouldn’t be wise. Using HAVOC allows us to see how teams are building their rosters defensively. So remember, these numbers show how productive the player was in the scheme they played in last year, which is reflected against their peers in their overall ranking.
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Head Coach Dan Quinn and Defensive Coordinator Joe Whitt Jr. will team up again and attempt to right the defensive ship in Washington. Though most of the talk will be centered around the newly drafted QB Jaden Daniels, the defense will need to play extremely well in order to keep the Commanders out of the basement.
One takeaway from Quinn’s tenure in Dallas is that he wants to live in a 4-2-5 Nickel defense. Injuries and the need to play 210 lbs converted Safety in Marquees Bell exacerbated the lack of LB play. Quinn and Whitt now have two solid LBs to hold down the middle and an interior defensive line they didn’t have with the Cowboys.
When you look at a ‘static’ defense like the one that will be implemented in DC, the common denominator for success is a strong middle of the defense. Washington has that element. The only issue is that the secondary is not as talented as the one in Dallas. When playing so much man coverage, your secondary has to be able to lock down WRs and TEs to force hesitation in the QB’s reads; this amplifies the rush.
Quinn comes from the Pete Carroll tree, which makes the defense very closed post-dominant. The defense is not static in regard to play but pre-snap alignment. What you see is most likely what you get from the Cowboys. Quinn utilizes stunts up front to cancel gaps and gain leverage on offensive protections and blocking schemes. When teams are closed post-dominant, their main change up is running Tampa 2 coverages, which Whitt and Quinn like to do.
Quinn and Whitt will have to develop a secondary with some pieces that need improvement. The loss of CB Kendall Fuller (Dolphins/CB4) and Safety Kameron Curl (Rams/S34) will likely sting. Another player, CB Emmanuel Forbes Jr., needs to progress and prove the Commanders right by taking him in the 1st Round.
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» D-Line:
Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne can be one of the best iDL duos in the NFL if they produce as they have in the past. Allen, in particular, is one of the best players in his position in the NFL. The duo is something Dan Quinn never had in Dallas. If both Allen and Payne can get back to being elite, a lot of the issues up front for the Commanders will disappear. It will also allow them to play more zone coverage, keeping both LBs more patient to help the secondary.
Both DEs from last year’s team were traded away. Montez Sweat was an instant upgrade in Chicago and completely turned their defense around. Former 1st Round pick Chase Young was also dealt to the 49ers and now will try to resurrect his career with the Saints. In steps former Cowboy Dorance Armstrong and 49er Clein Ferrell. Both DEs have shown flashes and are solid contributors.
For the Commanders to succeed in year one, the D-line will have to excel. Inside, that is a definite possibility. At DE, Quinn will have to find a way to create production. He doesn't have a Micah Parsons or a workhorse like Tank Lawrence. Ferrel and Armstrong need to make an impact in a major way.
» Linebackers:
One way the Commanders can assist the DEs in pass rush is with new signee Frankie Luvu, formerly of the Panthers. Luvu can be a liability in coverage and is below average in run-stopping ability, but he excells at rushing the passer and as a blitzer. I have him as my #3 Pass Rush LB from ‘23. Luvu will be paired with NFL statesman Bobby Wagner. Though in the twilight of his career, Wagner is still a force in the middle of the box. Wagner finished #1 in my ‘23 HAVOC ratings for LBs. Combining Luvu with Wagner allows the Commanders to have two pieces that can be used to mitigate issues upfront.
» Secondary:
The secondary is where the Commanders need the most improvement and where most of the questions lie. The drafting of Michigan’s Mike Sainristil should solidify the Nickel position, which is the fulcrum of the modern defense and arguably one of the most important in a Nickel scheme. Sainristil is slight, but he packs a punch and can be used in coverage or blitzing the QB.
A trio of CBs will vie for starting roles. Benjamin St. Juste (CB65) is long and has shown flashes as a man-cover CB, which Washington is banking on him being. Micheal Davis will come over from the Chargers and attempt to hold the starting position opposite. Davis had a much better year in ‘22, while ‘23 saw him finish 68th in my CB rankings. The one piece that could solve a lot of issues is the development of Emmanuel Forbes. The former 1st Round pick finished 89th in my HAVOC ratings. Whitt has his handful in the CB room.
At Safety, the Commanders brought in Jeremy Chinn (S84) over from the Patriots. Chinn is a traditional Box or Down Safety, which will fit perfectly in the system Quinn and Whitt want to run. Most likely, Chinn will be the enforcer; he was ranked 4th in run-stopping HAVOC for Safeties in ‘23. Darrick Forest (S112) and Pearcy Butler (S37) will attempt to hold down the fort at Post Safety. Bulter is the highest-rated DB on the roster but slated to play behind Forrest by Ourlads. Butler is a great man cover Safety, and given the fact Whitt still wants to play man, I suspect he may be the starter sooner rather than later.
» Quinn Resources:
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The Cardinals are on a long-term rebuild on defense. Not much was expected from them last year, and most pundits won’t expect much improvement this year, either. Still, Arizona had one of the more interesting schemes in football. Head Coach Jonathan Gannon runs a Fangio-adjacent scheme that utilizes a five-man D-line. Behind that, he mixes Penny (5-1) and Base (3-4) to counter offensive personnel.
The only true stars on defense are Budda Baker (S18) and Jalen Thompson (S41). Both were moved around in the backend to mitigate issues the Cardinals were having upfront. It wasn’t rare to see a five-man D-line, one LB, and then five DBs all aligned at the sticks. The Cardinals would shift players around in a post-snap disguise at the snap.
Arizona drafted a DE and CB early and will place them in starting roles. Both will be used early to revamp much-needed units. Even with all the chaos on defense and lack of overall talent, the secondary was still serviceable. Year two should see a boost in play as most players will understand the scheme even better, but there is still concern about the overall lack of talent.
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» D-Line:
Former 1st Rounder Zaven Collins (ED65) didn’t get his 5th-Year Option picked up by the Cardinals. Similar to now Giants ED Isiah Simmons, Collins was viewed as a hybrid OLB who might be able to develop a pass rush. The latter never came. Though he is great in coverage and serviceable against the run, the modern game requires a pass rush, and Collins has yet to produce. Opposite Collins is BJ Ojulari (ED90), a 2nd Round pick from last year. Similar to Collins, he’s great in coverage but lacks punch when rushing the passer. The Cardinals are hoping both can produce in ‘24.
The interior D-line gets a boost from Missouri Tiger and 1st Round pick Darius Robinson. Opposite Robinson is Justin Jones (iDL62), who comes over from the Bears. Jones has a great pass rush and should be able to play the ‘quick’ Tackle when needed. They will attempt to create inside if the Cardinals can’t produce a pass rush off the edge. Lastly, Bilal Nicholas (iDL77) comes over from the Raiders and will be used as a plugger inside.
» Linebackers:
Kyzir White (LB59) and Krys Barnes (LB71) are both functional LBs. The system the Cardinals run does not require elite LB play. The five-man front and rotating Safeties help clean up the box. In Gannon’s system, the ILBs are typically responsible for the RB and plugging the open gap. Both are above average in run-stopping ability, so what they’re asked to do within the scheme fits their player profile.
» Secondary:
The Cardinals are hoping the duo of 2nd Round draft pick Max Melton (Rutgers) and ex-Titan Sean Murphy-Bunting (CB80) can stabilize a CB unit that is in need of star power. Murphy-Bunting is an above-average man CB, and Melton came from a Belichick-adjacent system at Rutgers under HC Greg Schiano. The move at CB indicates that running more man coverage is a priority.
Interestingly, the Cardinals, who run Quarters at a league-high, brought in Murphy-Bunting, who struggled in the coverage. I had him ranked 129th in the coverage. The Titans were also a Quarters-based system, so seeing how this move plays out will be interesting.
As stated earlier, the Safety position is probably the best unit on the football team. Baker and Thompson are both top-tier starters in the league. Thompson is an assassin in the Slot, where I have him as the #1 Safety Slot head of Kyle Hamilton. Though Thompson is 41st overall as a true Safety, his ability to be a moving part within the defense can’t undervalued. The Cardinals use Baker and Thompson to cancel space, at least as much as they can, considering the rest of the talent on the field. If the revamped defensive front can produce a rush, the job of these two will get much easier. The same can be said if both new starting CBs pan out as well.
» Gannon Resources:
One issue that has plagued the Falcons for years has been a lack of pass rush. Head Coach Raheem Morris and DC Jimmy Lake will need to find a way to manufacture one to succeed. I felt that Ryan Neilson did a tremendous job with the team last year, considering this limiting factor. The foundation is there for Morris and Lake to continue building on.
Morris has had to deal with a lack of talent issues with the Rams, but he always had future Hall of Famer Aaron Donald as a lever. Donald is retired and not in Atlanta. Pieces are in place, though. The Falcons LB corp is probably the most underrated in the league, and Safety Jesse Bates III (S3) is a star. CB AJ Terrell (CB40) will also likely excel in a less pressure-filled system; he pressed at almost a 70% rate last year.
At the end of the day, the front is going to decide how good this defense can be. Both Edges are lackluster, and the only ‘star’ potential is in Grady Jarrett (iDL78), who needs to have a resurgence in his play. Morris runs a Fangio-adjacent scheme and will have the backing of what looks to be a solid offense. Another situation where he will need to bend but not break.
The main pillars of the Morris system are its closed post coverages, middle-of-the-field disguise from a split-field alignment, and use of multiple fronts. The Base defense for Atlanta will be a 3-4 Cover 3 structure. From there, Morris will utilize Penny (5-1) and Ni (4-2-5) alignments to counter offensive structures. Similar to Gannon in Arizona, the scheme is a Fangio-adjacent defense that stems form the Staley branch. It’s sister scheme is in Carolina, where Ejiro Evero, a former assistant under Morris, is the DC.
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» D-Line:
NG David Onyemata (iDL26) is a plugger who has some wiggle in the pass rush game. Last year, he accounted for four sacks and eight tackles for loss. Arguably, he was the best Falcons D-linemen. Beside him will be Grady Jarrett, who has the potential to be very disruptive. Morris's plethora of five-man fronts should allow Jarrett to gain one-on-ones with Guards. Opposite is Zach Harrison (iDL92), who will move inside; he was DE last year in Atlanta’s 4-3 Base. Harrison has great run-stopping ability, so he will pair nicely with Onyemata inside, allowing Morris to move Jarrett around, utilizing his athleticism.
The Edges must produce if this defense is ever going to develop teeth. Without a decent pass rush, the secondary has little chance of success. Lorenzo Carter (ED86) and Arnold Ebiketie (ED101) are not high-level talents. The organization balked at getting one in the Draft, opting to select Washington QB Micheal Penix. With such a need at Edge, it was a head-scratcher for a lot of pundits and fans.
» Linebackers:
Similar to the Cardinals, the LBs in the Morris system need to be able to hold down the box. Kaden Elliss and Nate Landman had tremendous years last year, and both are excellent against the run. Elliss was rated my #11 LB in HAVOC last year, with Landman finishing 14th. Troy Anderson is the third piece in this puzzle. All three, when healthy, give the Falcons solid options on the second level.
» Secondary:
If the Falcons are able to produce a pass rush, the secondary has the potential to raise its level of play exponentially. Safety Jesse Bates III is a perennial star in the league and is a do-everything Safety. He will be paired with DeMarco Hellams (S85), who is good around the box. The Falcons want to play most of their coverages from the table (depth), but can move their Safeties around to mitigate matchup issues. Hellams will most likely be asked to fit the box and guard TEs on early downs, while Bates can lurk around in the post, looking to disrupt their opponent’s passing game.
CB AJ Terrell is a talented CB who has been living on a knife edge for much of his young career. Terrell’s press rate is off the charts, putting him in tough spots when the D-line isn’t under any pressure. Morris and Lake run a more zone-centric scheme, that will alleviate pressure off the young CB. Look for him to have a bump in production.
Opposite Terrell is Phillip Clark III (CB105), who should benefit from playing less man coverage. Where Terrell is Atlanta’s boundary CB, locking down the opponent’s best WR, Clark will play the field CB, who is not as stressed. Inside, Dee Alford will play the Ni. I have Alford as my #23 Slot from ‘23. He’s also an excellent blitzer. Alford will need to create connections with the levels in order for this defense to truly blossom, and he has the tools to do so.
» Morris & Lake Resources:
**Plenty more in the Archive & Clinic Archive (Search Rams)
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» Look for NFL Defensive Previews every Wednesday leading up to the NFL season.
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© 2024 MatchQuarters | Cody Alexander | All rights reserved.
Coach Cody! How can I calculate DL Havoc?
Could I divide it by the number of plays for each of my DL?