MatchQuarters' NFL Season Previews: The Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs, Steve Spagnuolo continues to prove he is one of the best coordinators in the NFL, while the Ravens' new defensive coordinator, Zach Orr, begins his career.

Each week leading up to the season, I will review the roster, schemes, and outlook for each defense in the NFL. I have a depth chart for every team with their 2023 Field Vision Sports HAVOC rankings and scores. Projected rookie starters will receive the league average HAVOC for that position. Notable losses are located in the upper left-hand corner. Click on the picture to expand for a better look.

What is HAVOC? I wanted to create a metric that better understood how defenders play within their scheme. For the D-line and LBs, it is pretty straightforward. Can you fit the run and create a pass rush? For LBs and some Edges, coverages have also been added.

Related Content: Field Vision Sports - Introducing Havoc Ratings

In the secondary, it can get complicated. Not every team runs the same amount of coverage. Some, like Dan Quinn, Jim Schwartz, and Gus Bradley, live in a singular style of play, while others, namely Mike Macdonald and Vic Fangio, choose to play a multitude of coverages. I wanted to create a more nuanced way to look at DB play. How are they playing within man and zone schemes, and how diverse is their coverage palate?

Utilizing HAVOC, which is biased towards player and scheme usage, we can better understand how these players are used within the ecosystem they play in. A great example is Seattle’s Riq Woolen, one of the best man coverage CBs in the game but struggles at zone. Team-wise, the Browns have three CBs that excel at man coverage, which suits what DC Schwartz is trying to do.

HAVOC allows us to track free agency signings and paint a better picture of their fit. Should the Commanders, who will play mainly man and 3-match coverages, bring in a zone-centric CB? No, that wouldn’t be wise. Using HAVOC allows us to see how teams are building their rosters defensively. So remember, these numbers show how productive the player was in the scheme they played in last year, which is reflected against their peers in their overall ranking.

Related Content: The Power of Evaluating Players using Play-by-Play Data

The ratings in this article are my ‘raw’ Havoc scores. In the coming weeks, we will roll out our comprehensive lists of top defenders at Field Vision. Remember to subscribe to our mailing list to get instant access when we release new content and information.

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The Ravens have a long line of distinguished defensive coordinators. Starting with Marvin Lewis in ‘96, the list is a who’s-who of NFL defensive culture: Rex Ryan, Mike Nolan, Chuck Pagano, Dean Pees, Wink Martindale, and now the newly appointed Head Coach in Seattle, Mike McDonald. Defense is ingrained in Baltimore's culture, and the organization is one of the best at producing in-house coaching talent.

With Macdonald off to the Pacific Northwest, other teams soon came to poach this new iteration of the Ravens’ defense. The Dolphins hired Asst. Head Coach/D-line Anthony Weaver. Tennessee hired defensive backs coach Dennard Wilson.

With a run on talent, John Harbaugh turned to their young LB coach, Zach Orr, to keep the tradition alive. The Chargers will run this scheme along with the four teams mentioned, as John’s brother, Jim, brought Jesse Minter from Michigan to LA. Minter is also a former Ravens assistant and replaced Mike Macdonald in Ann Arbor.

Macdonald was brought in to streamline and update the Ravens’ defense after Harbaugh fired Wink Martindale. Ironically, Martindale is now in Michigan as their DC. Wink’s version of the defense was the traditional pressure-heavy system in place when Rex Ryan stalked the Baltimore sidelines. Macdonald had instant success running a less aggressive yet more multiple defense.

Orr will attempt to manufacture the success that Macdonald established in the past two seasons. If history proves anything, Orr will be just fine. The organization has proven it can surround a young coordinator with help. Plus, the system works.

Though Orr technically is the defensive coordinator, long-time assistant Chris Hewitt was elevated to Anthony Weaver’s role as Asst. Head Coach and will continue to coach the secondary. To replace Dennard, the Ravens brought in Doug Mallory, who worked under Macdonald and Minter in Michigan and worked under Dan Quinn in Atlanta from ‘15-’20.

There are storm clouds over Baltimore’s defense. According to Field Vision’s Havoc Ratings, the Ravens lost the most talent in the NFL last year to free agency. Edge Jadeveon Clowney had a breakout season last year but departed for Carolina. Starting LB Patrick Queen left for division rival Pittsburgh. Geno Stone also left for Cincinnati, a division opponent in the secondary. Corner depth is a concern, as Rock Ya-Sin (49ers) and Ronald Darby (Jaguars) departed this off-season.

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» D-Line:

Justin Madubuike had a stellar season last year, racking up 13.5 sacks, the most for a Ravens defender since ‘14. With that, he was rewarded with a major contract. Madubuike is still more of a pass-rush specialist inside. His backup, Travis Jones, was excellent against the run last season.

Like Jones, the Ravens' Nose, Micheal Pierce, is more stout against the run but can provide a punch when needed in the pass rush. The D-line, in general, is built to maximize Madubuike’s talents and pick up the slack for him against the run. The third interior D-linemen in the group is Broderick Washington, who is serviceable and the first to come off the field when the Ravens go to Ni. Finally, Brent Urban plays the ‘big’ 5 technique when playing an Under defense.

The Ravens need production from the outside Edges, with Clowney now out of the mix. ‘21 1st-round draft pick Odafe Oweh is a physical freak, but that has not converted to production. He’s never started more than six games in a year or cleared the five-sack mark. Now that the path is cleared for him to be a full-time starter, he must prove his 1st-round selection.

Opposite Oweh is Kyle Van Noy, who played more of a rotational role last year. Van Noy can still rush the passer, and he excels in pass coverage. One trait of the Ravens’ defense is their use of simulated and five-man pressures, mixing up coverages. Sometimes, they will drop the two inside defenders, but they mostly like to use an Edge in a coverage role. Van Noy was the #2 coverage Edge last season.

Depth overall is a significant concern for the Ravens' D-line. After the starters, there are young, unproven players behind them. Unlike many top defenses in the NFL, Baltimore has not built a two-deep rotation to keep its starters fresh. A dark horse in this group is David Ojabo, who has only been able to muster five games in two years.

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» Linebackers:

Roquan Smith came to Baltimore in a ‘22 trade. With an entire offseason, he returned to being a top LB in the NFL. Last season, he finished 15th overall in Havoc and is projected to be in the top 10 this coming season. Smith is an excellent box linebacker with a tremendous run-stuffing ability and is more than adequate in coverage.

Trenton Simpson, last year’s third-round pick, is tabbed as Smith’s partner. Queen leaving for Pittsburgh puts a massive hole in the middle for the Ravens. Last year, he did not see much time, and with no one brought in via free agency, the Baltimore ops felt he was ready to go.

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» Secondary:

Kyle Hamilton is a star and one of the best Safeties in all of football. His versatility is endless, and the Ravens used him at volume as a Slot defender. Last year, he had the #1 pass rush Havoc for Safeties in the NFL and was also a menace in coverage.

Baltimore uses Hamilton as a Slot in certain sub-packages, putting him back at Safety in base.

With Geno Smith gone to Cincinnati, Eddie Jackson (Bears) will be asked to play from the table (deep) in Big Nickel situations. Jackson is good in coverage but is not a box defender, so this makes sense as Hamilton’s primary backup.

Alongside Hamilton is Marcus Williams, who has only been able to stay healthy for ten games in the past two seasons. Williams was the #1 Safety in zone coverage Havoc last year and finished fourth overall in coverage Havoc. Combined with Hamilton, the Ravens have arguably one of the best coverage duos in the backend.

Like Edge, the corner spot has questions and lacks depth. There is a world in which 1st-round draft pick Nate Wiggins (Clemson) becomes the starter early in the season. He showed flashes during the preseason. Wiggins will start the year behind Marlon Humphrey, but don’t be surprised to see him rack up plenty of playing time on Sundays.

Humphrey is closing in on 30 years old (he’s 28) and missed seven games last season. He finished last year as the 22nd-ranked coverage CB in the NFL. Opposite Humphry is Branden Stephens. He was serviceable last year and will look to progress. Otherwise, Wiggins could be taking his position as a starter.

At Ni, when Hamilton is not there, Authur Maulet comes in. Maulet is great near the box and can provide adequate zone coverage when capped by a Safety.

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» Baltimore (Macdonald) Resources:

Creating simple simulated pressures. A lesson from the Ravens.

Fitting the Run with the Wolverines and Ravens

Cool Clips: The Ravens 'Tag' Sim vs. the Lions

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The NFL has not elected a ‘pure’ coordinator into the Hall of Fame. Dick LeBeau, who advanced Bill Arnsparger’s ‘safe pressures’ and revolutionized the NFL, has made it into the Hall, but as a mixture of both player and coach. Arnsparger should be considered for his defensive advancements made in the ‘70s and ‘80s with his ‘53,’ the ‘No-Name,’ and ‘Killer B’ defenses. He led teams to four different championships, including the undefeated Miami team.

Bud Carson and the ‘Steel Curtain.’ Monte Kiffin deserves mention for his Tampa 2 defenses, which he developed alongside Hall of Fame coach Tony Dungy. Carson’s system is the precursor to the Tampa 2 style of play. Buddy Ryan and the Bear 46, whose blitzes and coverages still litter the NFL. Wade Phillips coached for almost 30 years, and two-thirds of his defenses were ranked in the top 10 for sacks. Finally, Jim Johnson, whose ‘Tango’ pressures and coverage disguises are the basis for the Chiefs’ split-field pressure package.

Steve Spagnuolo, a four-time Super Bowl champ, deserves to be mentioned in the same breath as all of these coaches. Many forget he orchestrated the Giants' Super Bowl-winning defense, which stagnated the undefeated Patriots. The Chiefs have been an outlier not only schematically, but in defensive production, where they have been able to win games without a volume of premium talent.

The Chiefs scheme is one of the heaviest in split-field coverages. Though not a leader in Quarters, the volume of Cover 2 and Cover 6 (QQH) combined with Spags ‘Palms’ (2-Read) base and pressure coverages make them truly unique. Only the Jets and Cardinals in the past several years can boast comparable Quarters usage.

The real story behind the defense is Spag’s ability to teach his seemingly complicated defense to young players. Kansas City's ‘22 draft class has wholly reshaped the organization. During that draft, it was up to Mahomes to win games and the defense not to lose them.

George Karloftis, Leo Chanel, Trent McDuffie, Bryan Cook, Jaylen Watson, and Nazeeh Johnson have all started, and all were drafted in ‘22. McDuffie has become one of the best Nickel defenders in the NFL. When combined with Nick Bolton (‘21) and Chammarri Conner (‘23), seven of the Chiefs' eleven starters were drafted in the past three offseasons. Spags has placed these young defenders in the correct spots, making Kansas City a formidable opponent.

The system is 4-3 based and utilizes Ni and Dime packages on passing downs. Chenal is a hybrid Edge that can walk down to create Odd Fronts. The defense's real unique aspect, outside the coverage usage, is the blitz package. One trend directly tied to KC this season is using five-man pressures with Quarters behind it. You can thank Spags for that.

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» D-Line:

The engine that makes this defense go is iDL Chris Jones, the best inside pass rusher in the NFL. Kansas City has developed a defense that allows Jones to rush the passer on every down, which is why his run Havoc is so low. When combining his production scores, he gets a dip, but don’t get it wrong, without Jones, the Chiefs defense pales compared to what it can do with him.

Alongside Jones is Derrick Nnadi or Mike Pennel. The Chiefs utilize their inside guys similarly, meaning they don’t have a true Nose or DT. The techniques are relatively the same playing from a 3 tech and a 2i. Pennel is an excellent complement to Jones because he picks it up in the run game. Nnadi is currently on the PUP list, but when healthy, is a serviceable piece inside. Backup Tershawn Wharton is a good pass rush specialist inside as well.

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» Linebackers:

Nick Bolton can be a monster when playing at his best. He is not a gifted blitzer but picks up the slack in run support and coverage. His ability to play in zone coverage perfectly fits Spags’ defense. This year, he is projected to be one of the top 15 LBs in the NFL if he can stay healthy.

Drue Tranquill came over from division rival Chargers and has been a great partner with Bolton. Similar to Bolton, Tranquill excels in zone coverage. Where Bolton is less talented in blitzing, Tranquill picks it up. We are increasingly seeing NFL teams pair LBs that complement each other. Kansas City is no different.

The third member of this group is Leo Chanel, who acts as an off-ball LB and a hybrid Edge. A trend that the Chiefs are also a part of in the NFL is using hybrid off-ball LBs to create five-man fronts. Chanel played in a similar system in Wisconsin and will replace the departed Willie Gay Jr. (Saints), who played in that role last year. In New Orleans, Gay will do the same in Dennis Allen’s four-down defense. Chenal was 32nd in pass rush Havoc for LBs the previous year but struggled in other aspects.

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» Secondary:

Like Jones on the front line, McDuffie is the engine for the backend. Last year he played outside in Base and then moved to Ni in sub-packages. With L’Jarius Sneed off to Tennessee, the Chiefs are looking for the young CB to become a dominant outside presence. Last year, outside the Super Bowl, McDuffie struggled in man coverage. He is one, if not the best, Slot defender in the NFL, so it will be interesting to see how the Chiefs move along with this experiment.

With McDuffie becoming CB #1, the door is open for the other two CBs selected in the ‘22 Draft. Jaylen Watson, Nazeeh Johnson, and Joshua Williams are all unknown commodities. Watson and Williams played sparingly last year, and both projects to be 99th and 100th in Field Vision’s projected Havoc Rankings for ‘24. Johnson is a dark horse here, as he was moved to CB this offseason after missing all of last year with an ACL. He’s battling Watson and Williams for that starting role opposite McDuffie.

Justin Reid has become one of the best Safeties in the NFL, finishing 18th in Havoc Ratings for Safeties in ‘23. Spags uses him as a tool near the box as well. He can also match up with TEs and lesser WRs, finishing seventh in man coverage Havoc for Safeties in ‘23.

Alongside Reid is Bryan Cook, who was part of that ‘22 draft class. Cook is the lesser of the two, starting Safeties and splitting time with Chammari Conner. Last year, Conner finished 25th in coverage Havoc last season. With McDuffie moving outside full-time, Conner has assumed the Ni role. Look for both Cook and Chammari to be used in tandem when running base.

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» Recent Previews:

MatchQuarters' NFL Season Previews: The Pittsburgh Steelers, San Fransisco 49ers, & Cleveland Browns

MatchQuarters' NFL Season Previews: The Dallas Cowboys, Las Vegas Raiders, & the New York Jets

MatchQuarters' NFL Season Previews: The Buffalo Bills and Jacksonville Jaguars

** I’ll have a preview ‘magazine’ out tomorrow with links to every article on every defense heading into the 2024 season. Plus, content from Field Vision examining the top players across the league.

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© 2024 MatchQuarters | Cody Alexander | All rights reserved.

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