MatchQuarters' NFL Season Previews: The Buffalo Bills and Jacksonville Jaguars
MatchQuarters' NFL Season Previews: The Buffalo Bills and Jacksonville Jaguars
One team is trying to get younger while the other is trying not to collapse down the stretch for a second year.
Each week leading up to the season, I will review the roster, schemes, and outlook for each defense in the NFL. I have a depth chart for every team with their 2023 Field Vision Sports HAVOC rankings and scores. Projected rookie starters will receive the league average HAVOC for that position. Notable losses are located in the upper left-hand corner. Click on the picture to expand for a better look.
What is HAVOC? I wanted to create a metric that better understood how defenders play within their scheme. For the D-line and LBs, it is pretty straightforward. Can you fit the run and create a pass rush? For LBs and some Edges, coverages have also been added.
Related Content: Field Vision Sports - Introducing Havoc Ratings
In the secondary, it can get complicated. Not every team runs the same amount of coverage. Some, like Dan Quinn, Jim Schwartz, and Gus Bradley, live in a singular style of play, while others, namely Mike Macdonald and Vic Fangio, choose to play a multitude of coverages. I wanted to create a more nuanced way to look at DB play. How are they playing within man and zone schemes, and how diverse is their coverage palate?
Utilizing HAVOC, which is biased towards player and scheme usage, we can better understand how these players are used within the ecosystem they play in. A great example is Seattle’s Riq Woolen, one of the best man coverage CBs in the game but struggles at zone. Team-wise, the Browns have three CBs that excel at man coverage, which suits what DC Schwartz is trying to do.
HAVOC allows us to track free agency signings and paint a better picture of their fit. Should the Commanders, who will play mainly man and 3-match coverages, bring in a zone-centric CB? No, that wouldn’t be wise. Using HAVOC allows us to see how teams are building their rosters defensively. So remember, these numbers show how productive the player was in the scheme they played in last year, which is reflected against their peers in their overall ranking.
Related Content: The Power of Evaluating Players using Play-by-Play Data
The ratings in this article are my ‘raw’ Havoc scores. In the coming weeks, we will roll out our comprehensive lists of top defenders at Field Vision. Make sure to subscribe to our mailing list to get instant access when we release new content and information.
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The Bills’ defense finished twelfth last year in DVOA (FTN). Considering where this defense is used to being, it was a slight fall-off from previous years. A lot of the fall-off had to do with injuries.
Starting in Week 4, starting CB Tre’Davious White tore his Achilles, putting a massive dent opposite Benford at CB. As a result, the team moved to acquire Rasual Douglas from the Packers later in the year. White will attempt to bounce back with the Rams.
Matt Milano broke his leg the following week and was out for the season. Though the Bills had a viable replacement in Tyrel Dodson, the roster had limited depth. Dodson moved to Seattle this offseason. Starting interior D-lineman DaQuan Jones tore his pec at the beginning of October ad missed 10 games.
At each level of the defense, a major contributor was gone. Buffalo got an elite replacement at CB, but the SAfeties were aging, and the front was inconsistent. Von Miller didn’t have a sack, and only Leonard Floyd (now with the 49ers) was in double-digits. Still, the future is bright on the front.
Ed Oliver accumulated 9.5 sacks from an interior position, and both young Edges Reg Rousseau and Ed Epenesa have gotten consistently better. With Miller at the sunset of his career and with Floyd off the San Fransisco, the young core of Bills D-linemen are primed to shine.
In reality, the injury bug and age got to the Bills. A team that runs only 3% of its calls from base relies on speed and the ability to attack opponents cohesively. McDermott is looking to hit reset and build a championship defense to match the production of offenses.
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» D-Line:
In the offseason, the Bills re-signed Jones, ensuring he would be back, and brought in Austin Johnson as a rotational piece. Johnson is solid against the run and can supplement playing time behind Jones. For depth behind Ed Oliver, the Bills brought in journeyman lineman DeShawn Williams from Carolina and drafted Duke’s DeWayne Carter in the third round.
Edge is where the Bills will transition to the new normal of Rouseau and Epenesa. The former has established himself as an above-average all-around defensive end, whereas the latter is more of a pure pass rusher. For the Bills to have success, Rousseau will need to become an impact player, and Epensa will have to become more interested in stopping the run.
Behind the two young Bills Edges is a smattering of players in flux. Miller is no longer a starter; coming off a year, he saw little to no production. The hope is that he can regain some resemblance to his former self and excel in a limited pass-rush specialist role.
Dewuane Smoot, who comes from the Jaguars and is pushing 30, has never really produced outside of a backup rotational role at this point in his career. Casey Toohill (Commanders) has had a similar career arc as Smoot, only accumulating seven total sacks in four years. The Bills are doubling down on the duo of Rousseau and Epensa, hoping the injury bug doesn’t strike two seasons in a row.
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» Linebackers:
The Bills have arguably the two best examples of modern LBs in the NFL. Matt Milano was the #2 ranked coverage LB in Field Visions Havoc Ratings for ‘23. He excels in the Bills' zone scheme and is an elite read-and-react LB. What he gives up in the run game and in man coverage, he makes up for in his ability to read QBs in the intermediate zone and adds value in the pass rush.
Terrel Bernard is essentially Milano ‘light’ but with a little more pop in the pass rush. Both LBs are excellent when blitzing. Bernard grew tremendously last year as the defense's main signal caller and has the potential to get even better. Neither Milano nor Bernard are going to be A-gap pluggers, but in the Bills Ni system, they add speed and value in other ways.
Veterans Nicholas Morrow (Eagles) and Deion Jones were brought in as solid run-stoppers and will add sturdy depth behind to coverage LBs. Morrow, in particular, had the 11th-best run Havoc for a LB in ‘23.
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» Secondary:
At the conclusion of the season, the Bills let both starting Safeties walk. 33-year-olds Micah Hyde, currently a free agent, and Jordan Poyer, scooped up by divisional rival Miami, have been mainstays in the secondary since coming to Buffalo together in 2017.
Buffalo will try to reproduce their production by committee. Mike Edwards was brought in from Kansas City, Taylor Rapp was re-signed, and the Bills drafted Utah Safety Cole Bishop. All three will get a chance to compete for the two starting positions. Going with the trend at Edge, the Safetey spot was due for a refresh, regardless if the production warranted it.
During the season, CB Rasual Douglas was acquired via a trade with the Packers. Douglas is one of the best zone CBs in the NFL and fits perfectly into the system Sean McDermott has been developing in Buffalo. Alongside Douglas is former sixth-round pick Christian Benford, who, similar to Douglas, excels in zone coverage. If Benford can clean up his man coverage, he has the potential to be a top-25 CB in the NFL, giving the Bills a formidable duo.
The third CB in this group is Kaiir Elam, who has not lived up to his first-round billing. He will likely have this year to prove he can develop into a starter and push Benford, or the team will seek to move on. Elam was a man-dominant CB at Florida and has struggled in all facets of coverage in the NFL.
Finally, the Bills have one of the best Nickels in Taron Johnson. Considering Buffalo plays almost exclusively in Ni, having a player like Johnson is important. Field Vision ranked him the second-best CB in run support and a top-10 zone defender at the position.
» More Bills Resources:
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Potential. That is the word that best describes the Jaguars defense. The unit has the potential to be one of the better in a division that is begging someone to overtake it.
A total collapse of the defensive unit led to the firing of defensive coordinator Patrick Graham. Heading into Week 9, the Jaguars were fourth in overall EPA. Jacksonville was 6-2 with losses to future Super Bowl Champs in the Chiefs and division rival Houston. The bye week is usually a time to regroup, refresh, and get ready to march to the playoffs.
The Jaguars did come out of their bye relatively on fire. Though they lost to the 49ers 34-3, they beat the Titans and Texans in consecutive weeks. Then the wheels came off. Jacksonville sputtered to a 1-5 finish and missed the playoffs. What looked like a breakout season in Duval County quickly turned into a mediocre nightmare.
Head Coach Doug Pederson tasked rising star Shane Nielsen as his DC. Though the Falcons did not have a statistically great year, people around the NFL took note of Nielsen’s scheme. He derives from the Dennis Allen tree in New Orleans and runs a base 4-3 defense that wants to run Cover 1 and Quarters.
In Atlanta, Nielsen experienced different coverages, improving the front end's overall play. Knowing he had a talented front four, Pederson wanted to bring in someone with D-line experience, which is where Nielsen cut his teeth.
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» D-Line:
The shift to a four-down front will allow Edges Trevon Walker and Josh Hines-Allen to really shine. In Nielsen’s system, the two will rarely, if ever, drop into coverage. Hines-Allen had a breakout season last year with 17.5 sacks, good enough to sign a major contract this offseason. Walker garnered ten sacks in his sophomore campaign.
Nielsen will have plenty to work with on the outside edges of the box, and with a concentrated effort to disrupt the pass (and a DC who is a D-line coach), the dou could explode in year one of the scheme. If both stay healthy, AFC quarterbacks could be in trouble.
The Jaguars secured Arik Armstead in free agency to ensure the DEs garner one-on-ones with the Tackles. The oft-injured iDL gives the Jags a solid, quick tackle who can play the 3 tech. and help the Edges in their pass rush. Roy Robertson-Harris is another solid iDL in a similar mold as Armstead.
The Jaguars did draft LSU DT Maason Smith in the second round. Smith, along with DaVon Hamilton, will be nice rotational pieces. Overall, the D-line should be the strength of the defense, alleviating issues that might arise in the secondary, especially with no bonafide #2 CB.
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» Linebackers:
When all is said and done in ‘24, the Jaguars have the potential (there is that word again) to have one of the best LB duos in the NFL. Foyesade Oluokon is a name that most do not know outside scouting circles, but he is arguably one of the best LBs in all of football.
Field Vision Havoc ratings have him as the projected #3 LB for ‘24, the fifth-best coverage LB, the fourth-best against the run, and a top-20 pass rusher. Oluokun is an all-round LB who typically leads the NFL in tackles. The man is a machine!
Oluokun’s partner is former first-round draft pick Devon Lloyd. After struggling through his rookie season, Lloyd established himself as a major contributor for the Jaguars in his sophomore campaign. There is definitely room for improvement, but Nielsen will be able to develop Lloyd as he uses Oluokon as an adjustment tool in coverage and in the box.
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» Secondary:
Atlanta CB AJ Terrell pressed on almost 70% of his snaps in Atlanta. Though the other CBs were not as trustworthy in man coverage as Nielsen wanted, it does illuminate his coverage philosophy. Nielsen stems from the Dennis Allen and wants to play man coverage if he can. Signing Tyson Campbell, who struggled last year through injuries, signals that the Jaguars are working to match what Nielsen wants to build.
Opposite Campbell will be Ronald Darby (Ravens), a journeyman CB who has been solid in man coverage at times. Nielsen seems to want to build a defense similar to what he had in New Orleans.
At Ni, Tre Herndon (Giants) was dropped for the Packers’ Safety Darnell Savage. Though he mainly played Free Safety for Green Bay, the Jags will attempt to play him as a Slot defender to start the year. Along with other NFL teams, Jacksonville is going with a ‘Big’ Ni, or Safety, instead of a coverage-first defender or third CB. The Jaguars did draft Jarrion Jones of Florida State in the third round as a Slot CB.
At Safety, the Jaguars let the versatile Rayshawn Jenkins and Darious Williams head west to Seattle and the Rams, respectively. Williams was a 31-year-old CB who was a zone standout but didn’t fit in the mold Nielsen wanted. The starting Safeties will most likely be Andre Cisco at Free Safety and second-year player Antonio Johnson at the Strong Safety spot.
For the secondary to excel, Johnson must find a way to contribute in the run game and continue developing his coverage skills. Jenkins was typically the adjuster in Patrick Graham’s defense, but that role will now fall to Johnson. Behind Cisco and Johnson are Andrew Wingard, a special teams guru, journeyman Terrell Edmunds (Titans), and Daniel Thomas, who ended the year on the IR.
» More Ryan Nielsen Resouces:
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How has Foyesade Oluokon not been an All Pro yet this makes no sense to me he’s even lead the league in tackles,I get that’s a noisy stat but still I would think lazy people would at least see that and get him a pro bowl