The New Orleans Saints' Under Front Adjustment vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars
The New Orleans Saints' Under Front Adjustment vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars
Dennis Allen is a 4-3 guru, but most assume that means he's always running an Over Front. An easy adjustment within that system to change angles for the offense is to change the strength call.
Since the departure of Drew Brees after the 2020 NFL season, the New Orleans Saints have been in flux. Sean Payton would ‘retire’ the following year, leaving the Saints with a cash-strapped cap, without a Head Coach and franchise QB. To maintain continuity, the Saints tabbed Defensive Coordinator Dennis Allen to lead the team.
Since 2006, Payton has been the leader of the organization, and the team saw its most successful stretch, even winning a Super Bowl in 2009. Allen has worked in New Orleans since ‘06 as a staff member on Payton’s inaugural staff.
In ‘11, Allen would leave for a one-year stint with the Denver Broncos as DC and then move to Oakland as the Raiders Head Coach from ‘12-’14. After being fired, Allen returned to New Orleans, where he now patrols the sidelines as the Saints’ Head Coach.
Allen’s philosophy resides within the 4-3 universe. All the ‘old’ classics from the 4-3 appear when you watch the Saints. Allen cut his teeth in the NFL during the early 2000s, which was Cover 1 heavy outside the Tampa 2 clique of coaches. Joe Woods, who is currently the DC under Allen, stems from a middle-of-the-field closed (MOFC) philosophy and, when in Cleveland, ran more Cover 3.
The 4-3 system in place in New Orleans is cut from a traditional style. Allen bases in closed-post coverage but will mix in Tampa and Quarters depending on the situation. Cover 1 has always been a priority within Allen’s system and, in usage, only came second to the Browns.
This offseason, the Saints added DE Chase Young (SF/WAS) and hybrid off-ball LB Willie Gay (KC) to help push the Saints into the threshold of elite defense. Last year, the unit finished 15th in DVOA, 12th against the pass, and 23rd against the run (FTN). The inconsistency in play was partly due to an injury-riddled season for projected starters Marcus Maye (Safety), Marcus Lattimore (CB), and WR Micheal Thomas.
Efficiency-wise, the Saints are a middle-of-the-road defense, but when you look at them from the perspective of EPA, the defense is one of the best in the NFL. Last year, the Saints Total EPA was 6th, and they came in 9th when divided into run and pass.
Although the defense finished third in Total Unit HAVOC rate (a metric that averages how often a defense makes negative plays affecting the offense), the defense was inconsistent, which was exacerbated by playing opposite an inconsistent offensive unit. Even with one of the easiest schedules in the NFL, the Saints couldn’t find enough wins to make the playoffs.
On paper, this unit looks to make waves in ‘24 if it can find its groove. Rookie Safety Jordan Howden (above) stepped in nicely for the injured Maye and should continue to grow alongside one of the best ‘Joker’ Safeties in the game, Tyrann Mathieu. As an insurance policy for Lattimore, the Saints drafted Alabama’s Kool-Aid McKinstry in the 2nd Round. McKinstry was considered a 1st Round talent, but other teams' push to draft offensive weapons drove the talented CB down into the 2nd Round.
Nickel Alonte Taylor had a fantastic year, ranking fourth in my Sot HAVOC rankings. The young CB, combined with the other talent in the secondary, makes the Saints a potentially dangerous defense. Injuries, of course, will determine their success. As stated, the addition of McKinstry gives New Orleans depth at a critical position.
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