Examining the Florida Gators' 3rd Down Package
I analyze the Florida Gators' multi-tiered 3rd Down strategy under Defensive Coordinator Austin Armstrong.
Though the Florida Gators have struggled to finish with a winning season in the two years since Billy Napier took over the program, there is room for optimism. Ron Roberts, who was at Baylor and then Auburn last year, will join the staff to work beside wunderkind Austin Armstrong. The pair worked together briefly at Louisiana, where Armstrong coached the OLBs for Roberts.
Roberts is a well-known commodity around coaching circles, and along with his protege, Baylor’s Dave Aranda, is known as one of the top defensive minds in college football. Armstrong, though relatively young (31), has an extensive background in defense, working under Kirby Smart (Georgia), Dan Lanning (Oregon), and, of course, Roberts.
In his first year calling the defense in ‘22, Armstrong rose the Southern Miss defensive unit from 112th in DFEI to 62nd (they finished 64th). That year, he had the Golden Eagles’ defense ranked in the top five for Tackles For Loss (TFL) and sacks per game. When Napier lost DC Patrick Toney to the NFL (Cardinals), he turned to Armstrong, who was already on staff at Alabama, to lead his defense.
Florida’s defense finished 75th in DFEI (BCFToys). Several metrics illustrate there is room for positivity for the unit, mainly 3rd Downs. The Gators went from 128th in ‘22 to 36th in ‘23. That was the largest jump in the nation. According to PFF, the Gators were also 17th in the Power 5 in Forced Incompletions (FINC) when looking at 3rd & 3-11+.
FINC: all forced incompletions (pass breakups, interceptions, tight coverage) and divides them by total targets
One of the main culprits for the success on 3rd Downs was the blitz package curated by Armstrong each week. There is no ‘standard’ path he likes to use but a diverse set of plays and alignments that countered the protection schemes and passing concepts for that specific opponent. PFF had the Gators 9th in Pass Blitz Rate (PBR) in the Power 5 at 50.4%, with 32.6% of those being ‘simulated.’
Armstrong had a Hot, Warm, and Cold approach to calling defense on 3rd Downs. Though the Gators’ PBR was high, Armstrong used a variety of pressures to force the QB off target and into bad throws. Above, Florida runs a ‘flush’ concept to get the Utah QB to move into the boundary, where an off-ball defender is waiting to attack him; this would be a ‘Cold’ pressure that uses a three-man game to create a four-man pressure off the delayed blitz.
Warm would be simulated and five-man pressures because the defense still holds much of their coverage integrity. When teams passed the ball, the Gators had the ninth-lowest rate of five-man pressures as part of their blitz calls in the P5 at 44.9%.
Hot pressures are when the defense sends six or more defenders in the rush. Coverages are limited, and the defense is attempting to accelerate the read of the QB and force a low throw or the QB to hold the ball (sack).
The constant change-ups on 3rd Down made it difficult for offensive coordinators to create cohesive game plans. Not only was Armstrong switching up the number of defenders rushing, but the paths he was designing as well. Florida’s defense finished 12th in Pressure Rate in the P5 (above). For a sub-.500 team, the Gators could still put good tape together on 3rd Downs.
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