The Atlanta Falcons 'Soft' Bracket
The Atlanta Falcons 'Soft' Bracket
Exploring newly appointed Jacksonville Jaguars defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen's Bracket coverage against the Carolina Panthers.
The NFL hiring cycle can be a bit odd. The Jaguars, who finished 10th in FTN’s DVOA metric, fired their defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell. On paper and through averages, Jacksonville had a great season on defense, finishing 10th in Total DVOA. Dig deeper and break the season into four-game stretches; a clear picture shows up.
Through the season’s first four weeks, Jacksonville ranked 13th in DVOA. By Week 8, the defense was ranked fifth, and the team sat 6-2, clearly headed for the playoffs in the weak AFC South. As Week 12 came and went, the defense stabilized at 15th, and the Jags were 8-3 and still atop the AFC South. Then, the back third of the schedule hit.
Jacksonville sputtered down the stretch, going 1-5 and finishing outside the playoffs at 9-8. During that stretch of games (Week 13-16), the defense sunk as low as 26th in DVOA. An easy victory against the lowly Panthers was followed by an inexplicable loss to the Titans, allowing the Texans to take the crown in the South. Splitting the season in half and looking at EPA, the Jaguars had the second largest shift in EPA, going from third in Weeks 1-9 (-0.108) to 32nd in Weeks 10-18 (0.031); a change of 0.139 (RBSDM). Only Seattle was worse.
The NFL has ‘seasons’ within the schedule, and Doug Pederson felt the defense needed a change of leadership after the defense went cold to finish the year. The Jaguars’ defense gave up 28 points or more in their last five losses. With Caldwell out (and now with the Raiders), Pederson turned to Atlanta Falcons’ DC, Ryan Nielsen, who hails from the Dennis Allen (Saints) tree.
Nielsen has been a rising name since assuming the Assistant Head Coach/D-line role in ’21 and subsequently taking the co-DC position with the Saints in ’22. Allen has been the Saints DC since 2015 and took over as Head Coach once Sean Payton ‘retired’ after the ’21 season. The New Orleans system is a four-down structure that is heavy in Cover 1 but diversifies its zone coverages, running semi-equal parts Cover 2, Quarters, and Cover 3.
Typically, the system is in the lower third in Blitz Rate (BR). According to PFF, the Falcons finished 26th in BR (21.6%). Simulated pressures are more prevalent for Nielsen than in New Orleans under Allen. Atlanta doubled their Sim usage over their divisional counterpart, 8.9% to 4.4%.
Though not spectacular, the Falcons’ defense was at least consistent, finishing 24th in DVOA. Nielsen is, by trade, a D-line coach, so it is no surprise that his defense finished 11th in Run DVOA. When you watch the Falcons’ tape, the front six does an excellent job of fitting the run, but stopping the pass is much more critical in the modern game. The secondary, on the other hand, is a bit of an enigma.
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