Chalk Last: The NFL's Championship Preview
Who's going to the Super Bowl?
Dive into the advanced metrics defining this weekend's NFL playoff matchups, featuring Drake Maye’s efficient Patriots offense battling Denver’s relentless pressure and Matthew Stafford facing Seattle’s historic #1 defense. Uncover the key EPA splits, coverage tendencies, and strategic mismatches that will decide who goes to the Super Bowl.
Patriots vs. Broncos
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New England Patriots Defensive Profile
DVOA Rank: Overall (#23) | Run (#17) | Pass (#25)
Personnel: Base: 23.6% (#21) | Nickel: 69.2% (#8) | Dime: 4.4% (#21)
Pressure: Pressure Rate: 27.2% (#25) | Blitz Rate: 27.3% (#20) | Stunt Rate: 25.0% (#2)
Blitz Type: Sim: 2.9% (#29) | 5-Man: 17.3% (#27) | 6+: 10.0% (#11)
Coverage (Top 3): Cover 3 (28.9%), Cover 2 (26.7%), Cover 1 (26.2%)
Man & Zone:
Man Rate: 30.7% (#16) | EPA: 0.00 (#11)
Zone Rate: 67.9% (#19) | EPA: -0.03 (#9)
Shell (Safety Alignment):
MOFO (Split-Safety): 39.9% (#23) | EPA: -0.04 (#6)
MOFC (Single-High): 55.8% (#10) | EPA: -0.02 (#10)
Situational & Process:
3rd Down SR: 47.4% (#14)
RZ TD%: 33.3% (#31)
Explosive Play Rate: 8.0% (#9)
TOW Rate: 4.2% (#6)
Play-Action:
Overall EPA: -0.13 (#4)
Success Rate (YPA): 6.9 (#8)
MOFO YPD: 5.7 (#10)
MOFC YPD: 6.1 (#14)
Run Defense:
YPC: 4.2 (#13)
Stuffed Rate: 18.5% (#20)
Power Success: 84.6% (#32)
Rush DVOA: (#17)
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MatchQuarters Analysis:
Identity: “Stunts over Blitzing.” The Patriots rank #2 in Stunt Rate (25.0%) but only #20 in Blitz Rate. This confirms a philosophy of generating pressure with a 4-man rush via twists and games rather than sending extra bodies.
Efficiency Splits: A classic “Bend Don’t Break” unit that is elite at preventing disasters (#9 Explosive Play Rate, #6 TOW Rate) but struggles significantly when the field shrinks (#31 Red Zone TD%). They force you to drive the field, but struggle to get the final stop.
Structural Tendency: Heavy Nickel usage (69.2%, #8) with a balanced coverage menu (Cover 1, 2, and 3 all ~26-29%). This makes them structurally sound but rarely specialized.
Denver Broncos Defensive Profile
DVOA Rank: Overall (#5) | Run (#3) | Pass (#8)
Personnel: Base: 24.2% (#19) | Nickel: 58.9% (#21) | Dime: 13.0% (#9)
Pressure: Pressure Rate: 34.2% (#2) | Blitz Rate: 29.9% (#12) | Stunt Rate: 14.0% (#26)
Blitz Type: Sim: 7.8% (#15) | 5-Man: 19.2% (#22) | 6+: 10.7% (#8)
Coverage (Top 3): Cover 1 (30.5%), Cover 3 (24.0%), Cover 2 (15.5%)
Man & Zone:
Man Rate: 44.0% (#2) | EPA: -0.03 (#9)
Zone Rate: 54.6% (#31) | EPA: -0.01 (#12)
Shell (Safety Alignment):
MOFO (Split-Safety): 36.0% (#27) | EPA: -0.03 (#7)
MOFC (Single-High): 56.6% (#9) | EPA: 0.01 (#13)
Situational & Process:
3rd Down SR: 39.6% (#1)
RZ TD%: 14.5% (#3)
Explosive Play Rate: 6.7% (#1)
TOW Rate: 2.9% (#19)
Play-Action:
Overall EPA: -0.17 (#2)
Success Rate (YPA): 6.3 (#2)
MOFO YPD: 4.9 (#3)
MOFC YPD: 5.6 (#5)
Run Defense:
YPC: 3.9 (#3)
Stuffed Rate: 19.5% (#15)
Power Success: 62.8% (#10)
Rush DVOA: (#3)
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MatchQuarters Analysis:
Identity: “Aggressive Man-Match.” Denver is a unicorn defense in 2025: #2 in Man Coverage (44.0%) and #2 in Pressure Rate (34.2%). They do not disguise; they challenge.
Efficiency Splits: They are the league’s “Situational Kings.” They rank #1 on 3rd Down, #3 in the Red Zone, and #1 in limiting Explosive Plays. This trifecta is rare for such an aggressive unit, proving they can bring heat without getting burned deep.
Structural Tendency: They live in Single-High (MOFC #9) to support the run (#3 Rush DVOA) and isolate receivers on the outside. Their Dime usage (13.0%, #9) allows them to match speed on passing downs while maintaining high pressure.
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5 Things To Watch: Patriots Offense vs. Denver Defense
The Unstoppable Force: Passing Efficiency
The Patriots (Rank #1) are operating at a completely different tier of efficiency compared to the league average. This visualizes just how dominant the “Drake Maye Effect” has been. Denver needs to win the early downs.
The Kill Shot: Defensive Pressure Rate
Denver (Rank #2) is relentless. You can see how far above the average they sit. This is the primary threat to Maye’s processing speed. When the blitz gets home, or the pocket collapses, Maye’s efficiency plummets off a cliff.
YPA Under Pressure: 5.9 YPA (Rank #31) | Context: Near bottom of the league. He stops driving the ball downfield.
Sack Rate Under Pressure: 11.5% (Rank #25) | Context: He holds the ball too long, trying to make a play.
Completion % Under Pressure: 56.4% (Rank #22) | Context: Inaccurate when moved off his spot.
The Takeaway: The difference between his Clean Pocket play (Elite) and Pressure play (Rank #31) is arguably the largest in the NFL. If Denver’s rush hits home and the run game sputters, it could be a long day for the Patriots’ offense.
Scrambling: Drake Maye is the most frequent scrambler in the NFL, but he isn't necessarily the most dangerous. His scrambling profile suggests he is running out of necessity (escaping pressure) rather than opportunity (punishing man coverage for big gains).
Total Scrambles: 62 (Rank #1)
Scramble Rate (per Dropback): 10.3% (Rank #3)
Scramble Yards Per Attempt: 6.9 YPA (Rank #17)
Rush EPA/Attempt: +0.09 (Rank #20)
Rush DVOA: -21.3% (Rank #22)
No Fly Zone 2.0: Man Coverage Usage
Most teams hover around the 20-30% range (Zone heavy). Denver (Rank #2) is an outlier, playing Man Coverage on nearly half of its snaps. They will challenge New England’s receivers at the line of scrimmage.
The Diagnosis: How can the Patriots be Rank #2 in EPA but Rank #24 in Yards?
Answer: Turnover Avoidance & Sack Avoidance. The Quarterback (Drake Maye) is likely checking down or scrambling for positive yardage (4-5 yards) consistently against Man, which keeps EPA high (staying ahead of the chains), but the lack of separation (Rank #26 Open Rate) prevents explosive plays. It’s “Death by a Thousand Cuts,” but it’s unsustainable if they get behind.
