Chalk Last: Super Bowl Edition
So, who ya got for the Big Game?
This year’s Super Bowl is fascinating on so many levels.
New England is essentially “early” under Mike Vrabel. It also proves that he is one of the best Head Coaches in the NFL. His quarterback, Drake Maye, looks to be a bona fide star. Yes, everyone outside Boston is audible groaning.
For Seattle, Mike Macdonald has built a defensive juggernaut that refuses to play Base defense. One of the main trends this year was the rise in Base personnel. Finding Nick Emmanwori was a coup for a modern-facing defensive coach. Seattle can live in Nickel and has the structures in place to remain there.
Statistically, the Patriots are a bit of an anomaly. Defensively, DVOA hates them (23rd), but EPA likes them (11th in EPA/Play). Offensively, they are an elite unit that doesn’t have a 1,000-yard rusher and whose star receiver is 32-year-old Stefon Diggs, who only caught four TDs during the regular season. For New England, the entire offense is built around Drake Maye.
Opposite Maye is Sam Darnold. Everyone is waiting for him to turn back into a pumpkin.
He was the kid who “saw ghosts” in New York.
Was Baker Mayfield’s backup in Carolina (contract not renewed).
The guy who couldn’t beat out Mr. Irrelevant, Brock Purdy (hindsight is 20/20), in San Francisco.
The “Comeback Player of the Year” in 2024 for Minnesota, an organization that witnessed a massive collapse in his play to finish the season.
Then, there is Seattle Darnold, who looks like one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and exorcised his demons (again) against the Rams to make it to an improbable Super Bowl. The NFL scriptwriters need a raise!
On paper, the Seahawks look like the clear favorite, but the Patriots are a team that just won’t die. They are also the only NFL team to ever go 9-0 on the road. I hate to say it, but New England is back. They may not be perfect, but Vrabel has built a team that is relentless and makes opponents' jobs difficult.
Seattle will have to contend with the “restictor plate” that the Patriots will play with. My theory is that New England “uglies” the game up. Forces Darnold and Co. to drive the ball on offense and literally take any inch given by the Seattle defense.
There is a clear pathway for New England to win. For those viewing this game as David vs. Goliath, remember: David won in the end.
Seattle’s main weapon is its defense. The offense is good, but not elite. For New England, their offense is elite, but their defense is opportunistic. If you believe defense wins championships, put your money on Seattle. If you believe that the best quarterback wins, bet on the Patriots.
That said, both these quarterbacks are “unproven.” Darnold might turn into a pumpkin, and Maye is the young hotshot who hasn’t done it before. Either way, something will have to give. To help you decide who you think will win, I’ve got the season finale of “Chalk Last” below.
With the help of Google’s Gemini, I combed the depths of my data hub to bring you the most comprehensive look at each team’s defense. There are things in this breakdown that no one will cover.
I do briefly discuss each offense, but remember: Defense wins championships!
Here is your study guide for the “Big Game.”
Table of Contents
I. The Patriots Defensive Breakdown
The Profile: The “Bend But Don’t Break” Disconnect
Coverage Analysis: The Gonzalez Effect
Front Analysis: The “Finisher” Problem
Blitz & Run Fits: The Contradiction
II. The Seahawks Defensive Breakdown
The Profile: The League’s #1 Defense
Coverage Analysis: The “No Fly Zone”
Front Analysis: The “Organic” Pressure Paradox
Blitz & Run Fits: The “Sniper” Blitz Philosophy
III. Offenses
New England: Drake Maye and the Vertical Air Raid
Seattle: The Rhythm Machine & The JSN Volume Game
IV. Five Schematic Matchups to Watch
The “Bait & Switch” Blitz
The Slot Massacre
The Cap vs. The Cannon
The Stunt Wars
The Power Pivot
V. Win Conditions
Patriots Path: Explosion, Opportunism, and “Superman” Maye
Seahawks Path: The Squeeze
The Ultimate “Tell”
—
Super Bowl Week Schedule:
Wednesday - Let’s Talk Ball! Super Bowl Preview
Thursday - Manufacturing Explosives vs. the Patriots defense (free)
Friday - Manufacturing Explosives vs. the Seahawks defense (paid)
Patriots Defensive Breakdown
DVOA Rank:
Overall: 5.5% (23rd)
Run: -8.1% (17th)
Pass: 16.0% (25th)
Personnel: Base: 23.6% (22) | Nickel: 69.2% (8) | Dime: 4.4% (22)
Pressure: Pressure Rate: 27.2% (25) | Blitz Rate: 27.4% (19) | Stunt Rate: 25.0% (2)
Blitz Type: Sim: 2.9% (30) | 5-Man: 17.3% (28) | 6+: 10.0% (11)
Coverage (Top 3):
1. Cover 3 (28.9%)
2. Cover 2 (26.7%)
3. Cover 1 (26.2%)
Man & Zone:
Man Rate: 30.7% (16) | 0.002 EPA (11)
Zone Rate: 67.9% (20) | -0.033 EPA (9)
Shell (Safety Alignment):
MOFO (Split-Safety): 39.9% (24) | -0.038 EPA (6)
MOFC (Single-High): 55.8% (10) | -0.018 EPA (10)
Situational & Process:
3rd Down SR: 47.4% (14)
Red Zone TD%: 33.3% (31)
Explosive Play Rate: 8.0% (9)
TOW Rate: 4.2% (6)
Play-Action: Overall EPA: -18.87 (4) | Success Rate: 50.0% (11)
Run Defense:
Rush DVOA: -8.1% (17)
YPC: 4.2 (13)
Stuffed Rate: 18.0% (13)
Power Success: 85.0% (32)
MatchQuarters Analysis
Identity: Despite a heavy investment in Nickel (69.2%) and a stunt-heavy front (2nd in Stunt Rate), the Patriots have struggled with consistency against the pass (25th in Pass DVOA). This suggests that while they are structurally sound at preventing explosives (9th in Explosive Rate), they are losing efficiency on a down-to-down basis.
Run Defense Reality: The Run Defense is their relative stabilizer (17th in DVOA), despite the poor Power Success (short yardage/goal line) ranking (32nd). They limit efficiency well enough (-8.1% DVOA) but collapse in short-yardage situations.
Schematic Disconnect: The disconnect between their high use of zone coverages (Cover 2/3) and their below-average Pass DVOA (16.0%) indicates a “bend but don’t break” unit that is currently bending too much against elite opponents. They allow completions but tackle well enough to force long drives, hoping for a Red Zone stop (rare) or Turnover (6th in TOW Rate).
