2024 National Championship Preview
MatchQuarters uses data visualizations to prepare you for the matchup between the Washington Huskies and the Michigan Wolverines.
The Huskies have one of the best offenses in college football, with three NFL-caliber wide receivers and a future NFL quarterback. The Michigan defense will have their hands full, especially with outside receivers Odunze and Polk, who can both blow the top off any defense. Penix & Co. have made a living throwing deep shots outside the numbers, but against Texas, Washington proved they could hit the middle of the field, too.
The Longhorns ran split-field coverage on 71% of their snaps, and the Huskies feasted. Michigan will be a much different test, as they have one of the best secondaries in the country. According to CFBGraphs, the Wolverines are 5th in Dropback EPA (no play-action/RPOs). That still doesn’t mean disaster for the Huskies, as Oregon, whom they played twice, finished 7th in that metric.
Offensively, a significant concern for the Huskies is their run game, which ranks 53rd in EPA. The Wolverines are 25th in EPA/Rush and play in a more run-oriented league. Michigan is not opposed to playing an ugly game. The goal for Washington will be to play a complete game, and running the ball keeps the Michigan defense from pinning its ears back like it did against Alabama.
Defensively, Washington comes in at 27th in DFEI (BCFToys). The Huskies’ secondary was able to handle the outside wide receivers of Texas. Both Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchel failed to establish any success outside. Longhorns’ QB Quinn Ewers was forced to target TE Ja’Tavion Sanders and inside ‘Power Slot’ Jordan Whittington.
If any red alert beacons are going off for the Huskies, it is their run defense. The unit finished 99th in EPA/rush and gave up 180 yards to Texas. Michigan poses a similar threat. QB JJ McCarthy is also a great runner, and the Wolverines will use designed runs to gain yards. Early downs (1st/2nd) are also a significant concern for the Huskies, whose defense ranks 81st in EPA/Early.
Washington's defense didn't completely stop Texas' offense. The offense was able to take advantage of two critical turnovers by Texas consistently. Looking back at the Huskies’ schedule, the defense has struggled at times, but it was the offense that was able to overcome it. Against Texas, two critical turnovers by the Longhorns allowed them to hold a 13-point swing to start the second half.